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View Full Version : Gonzaga in Top 30 Most Difficult OOC Schedules



rpi30
11-01-2009, 04:44 PM
Countless hours of work during the last year has produced an RPI predictor which can be used to predict teams' RPI ranking at season's end. That model was also used to rank the Top 30 most difficult non-conference schedules which features Gonzaga. Note in advance that this seasons 'Zags schedule difficulty is not ranked as highly as you might expect (from an RPI math perspective).

Results are being posted on my blog at http://futurerpi.blogspot.com/. I would be interested in hearing your thoughts but the time zone difference and other commitments will prevent me from responding tonight.

As an alum of Western Kentucky I have a lot of admiriation for your program and look forward to following Gonzaga this year.

Reborn
11-01-2009, 05:04 PM
I totally agree with the ranking. And also what was written. Some of the Big name schools are rebuilding this year too, as the article indicated. I would add Illinois, Memphis, and even Oklahoma. That is the reason why I believe that GU will have a decent record by the end of the year.

GU32
11-01-2009, 05:07 PM
I don't know what kind of math makes the Zags OCC softer than Western Kentuckys.

BobZag
11-01-2009, 05:17 PM
I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, much less by March. But that's just me.

kylasdad
11-01-2009, 08:13 PM
Seems low to me but it will be cool to see how this plays out later in the year...

MDABE80
11-01-2009, 09:19 PM
We have a bunch of tough opponents but we do have some "clunkers" too. Among the nicer things in any projection models is to test them at 2 or 3 year's end. Then the math guys have fun doing prediction models....and see what variants were more important in outcomes. I bet Vegas has some nice math guys doing just this....we'll never hear about them though..or else we'd be rich from hiring them ourselves.

Welcome aboard rpi30. We like the WKU guys and the program too. Hope this works out. Let us know ....should be "value added" data.

rpi30
11-02-2009, 01:37 AM
I don't know what kind of math makes the Zags OCC softer than Western Kentuckys.

GU32, don't get too caught up in the difference in rankings between a few spots here and there. There's no way to predict the impact of injuries, suspensions, etc. throught the year and I don't claim to be a fortune teller!

As for Gonzaga's schedule, they play seven probable Top 50 RPI teams. That's more than any other school that expects to be competetive in all those games. However, the RPI Strength of Schedule rankings are based on a single average of all teams played. That's where MVSU, Bakersfield, EWU, and Colorado lower the average (I actually think IPFW will be .500+ so that's not an anchor). Most of the schools listed in my top 20 play no more than three sub-.500 opponents. I project Gonzaga will play five plus an Arizona team that may hover right around the 50/50 mark in 2009-10.

The Strength of Schedule average is based on two-thirds opponents' win % and one-third opponents' opponents' winning %. GU's forecasted OOC SOS based on my model is .5720 where WKU's is .5733. Just a couple different opponents can change those averages significantly. For example, if you simply remove Mississippi Valley from the schedule, the score bumps up to .5946 and moves from the 22nd to the 9th most difficult (projected) OOC schedule. Take out both MVSU and CS-Bakersfield and the average increases to .6123 and becomes the 3rd toughest.

For the record I agree with you about the comparison of the Zags and WKU. I would rather play Western's schedule than yours. This just highlights some of the quirks with the raw RPI formula.

GU32
11-02-2009, 01:49 AM
GU32, don't get too caught up in the difference in rankings between a few spots here and there. There's no way to predict the impact of injuries, suspensions, etc. throught the year and I don't claim to be a fortune teller!

As for Gonzaga's schedule, they play seven probable Top 50 RPI teams. That's more than any other school that expects to be competetive in all those games. However, the RPI Strength of Schedule rankings are based on a single average of all teams played. That's where MVSU, Bakersfield, EWU, and Colorado lower the average (I actually think IPFW will be .500+ so that's not an anchor). Most of the schools listed in my top 20 play no more than three sub-.500 opponents. I project Gonzaga will play five plus an Arizona team that may hover right around the 50/50 mark in 2009-10.

The Strength of Schedule average is based on two-thirds opponents' win % and one-third opponents' opponents' winning %. GU's forecasted OOC SOS based on my model is .5720 where WKU's is .5733. Just a couple different opponents can change those averages significantly. For example, if you simply remove Mississippi Valley from the schedule, the score bumps up to .5946 and moves from the 22nd to the 9th most difficult (projected) OOC schedule. Take out both MVSU and CS-Bakersfield and the average increases to .6123 and becomes the 3rd toughest.

For the record I agree with you about the comparison of the Zags and WKU. I would rather play Western's schedule than yours. This just highlights some of the quirks with the raw RPI formula.

Interesting stuff... Thanks for the info :)