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BobZag
04-02-2007, 09:35 AM
If the thoughts, analysis and reasons of our posters is correct, here is how the Starting 5 breaks down for next season--

Pargo - 12 ppg (will distribute more, thus no point improvement)
Bouldin - 12 ppg (it was 13.5 but some agree he "may" be the guy who "may" not score 10, so I bumped him down a bit)
Downs - 14 ppg (this was the easiest, you guys seem pretty sure)
Heytvelt - 14 ppg (majority agreed Josh "may" be the guy who "may" not get 10, so he was bumped down a few points from consensus)
Fifth Player - 10 ppg (CDC thinks it's important to get 10 points here and it's looking like Pendo or Daye are likeliest to that, according to majority)

That's 63 ppg for a starting 5. (btw, 63 is what Florida's starting 5 averages) If the bench provides 15-20 ppg--and with its depth and talent level. it should--Zags fans are looking at 78-83 ppg on average.

As for minutes played, as a thread below brings up, it's very difficult to predict that (at least for me it is), so I'll say the Starting 5 gets the majority of PT, say, 130 minutes out of 200, and the bench divvies up 70 minutes. Of course, this area is pure speculation.

Bottom line, as some suggest, it will be surprising if ANY of the top four Zags DON'T average double figures. The Zags will not hurt for offense next year.

If the defense can improve, and hopefully RayG will help with this area, Zags fans could enjoy a very successful season in '07-'08.

Btw, something that I believe is important: Those averages above must be consistent, meaning Bouldin, for example, can't score 25 one night and 5 the next game. A steady, consistent ppg beats one that's all over the board, irratic as hell.

RebornZag
04-02-2007, 10:01 AM
Great work BZ. Thanks. I like the Florida comparison, as I love their style of play. The two top questions for me is who will be similar to Horford in the middle? And who will have the FIRE of Noah? Noah's passion for the game is possibly the most important aspect of their success. This kind of passion for the game was certainly missing from this year's Zag team. The closest to it is Pargo, and maybe now that the old regime has moved on, the new one will be full of life and passion. Pendograft certainly can display passion as well, and I think downs. We need more FUEGO.....lots more.

As far as the stopper in the middle, for me that's the biggest question ? mark. Horford is awesome. And we need that kind of power inside. And we also need a low post presence on offense as well, as Horford provides. This, I believe, is the Zags missing link.....Josh has not shown that he can be a down low force, and I compare Josh more to Noah, but so far lacking the passion for the game. I am most curious about Davis, since I haven't seen him play. But from what I have read, he could be a good tough presence down low. What do you guys know about Davis?

sonuvazag
04-02-2007, 10:24 AM
Btw, something that I believe is important: Those averages above must be consistent, meaning Bouldin, for example, can't score 25 one night and 5 the next game. A steady, consistent ppg beats one that's all over the board, irratic as hell.

I disagree with the demand for consistant production. This is great for games to be played on paper. Honestly, I don't believe teams with 5 double-digit scorers, but no stand-out scorers do well.

What if Bouldin or Pargo find a groove for passing the ball one night and make 9 assists. Instead of scoring his 12-15, maybe he scores six and gets lots of easy buckets for others. Mission accomplished as far as I'm concerned. Get your 25 some other night when you get the hot hand. And we know Pargo and Bouldin can go for 25 another night, easy.

Also, the team needs to have the ego-lessness to defer to the hot hand. There may be a game where Micah seems unconscious on the deep three and we go there and milk it for 30. What if Heytvelt is using someone on the 12-15 foot turn and pull-up? I say we go to him and milk it for 30. What if Pendo gets the keys to car and we let him shoot all he wants. I say we milk it for 30. If we have Bouldin using someone down low or Pargo using someone on the dribble or Daye doing the Daye thing, I say we go to the strength and force it on the opponent's weakness--consistent scoring be darned.

Take Lee Humphrey of the vaunted Florida squad, who could be called and inconsistant scorer if you look at his game-to-game totals or could be called a "ready at the trigger" player. He's not always needed and he's not always hot, but he and his teammates seem to have a bond that says, on any given night if you're hot or if we get doubled down low, you might get 12 looks from three. How awesome is that? And its true for all of them, Green, Brewer, et al. I never would have thought Brewer would be the guy who can't miss against UCLA. But he was ready for the call.

I want to see the team go to the hot hand more and go consistently to our advantage more. Rely less on the idea that each player score x number of points each night for the team.

I like the averages, BZ, but don't agree with the methodology.

MDABE80
04-02-2007, 10:37 AM
Pendo averaged 12.3 ppg in the last 8 games. He can do better I think. EIther way, Pendo adds SO much to a team, he should get minutes......lots of minutes too. We just don't know how Theo will do since we haven't seen him in a college game. I suspect he's easily good for 10 and 5 if he gets some floor time.

I must admit that I'm a sucker for courage. Kuso showed lots of it post JH. I like that kid and hope he gets a better offensive game.

Defense is being undersold in BZ's analysis...largely because the question focused on points/game. CDC and many of the board love offensive promise and output. Me too. I like the defense better though. Can anyone imagine anyone driving the key with Josh, Kuso, Theo, Sacre waiting? I can't. Bigger problem is the on ball defense the wings and guards can bring. Pargo and Matt looked a bit out of position and slow afoot on D this past year. Quick guards killed em.

Not much backup in the key either as JH was "roaming". With the advent of multiple, bigger athletic kids, I supect the defense will improve if for no other reason than the "swatters" will be waiting. Defending 3's is an annual lproblem. I hope it improves.......how??... I don't know.

I like the lineup BZ details. It's offensive power galore. Is it the best defensive lineup? Not likely. It'll be a blend of O and D that'll matter. That always changes depending on the opponent and what it brings. This'll be an exciting thing to watch unfold . How Few picks whom to play will be a challenge. Lots of surprises ahead for us. Abe

BobZag
04-02-2007, 10:49 AM
Fair points, sun. I should've been clearer. I meant a kid has to minimize games in which he misses bunnies and simply fails to score, assist, rebound, etc.

I'm all for getting the ball into the hot hand, and it has been frustrating to watch someone get hot, only to get away from him.

Having a go-to guy can be tricky. For instance, 1999 was the only team to have all three backcourt starters (Matt, Richie, Q) in double figures, plus a low post player (Eaton) averaging 11+ppg. Eight years later and I still don't know who exactly our go-to guy was.

http://gozags.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/archive/gonz-m-baskbl-archive.html

Check out the 1998-1999 stats and tell me who our star go-to guy was as Gonzaga just missed the Final Four.

Your post is excellent, btw.

roxdoc
04-02-2007, 10:57 AM
In response to several posters above:

I have not seen Theo play/practice, but have noted him on the sidelines at a number of games this year. He doesn't strike me as having the body of a banger, or a 5 guy - looks like a 4 or maybe even a 3 kind of guy to me.

Defense will be the critical factor in tough/tournament games next year, not offense. Our defense against the 3 has been poor for years. It seems to me that that primarily has been a function of playing zone, with too much collapsing for double teams down low (trying to save our inside guys from fouling out). I think with the athleticism and depth we now have with 4s and 5s we could play more man defense with less collapsing.

BobZag
04-02-2007, 11:03 AM
Great work BZ. Thanks. I like the Florida comparison, as I love their style of play. The two top questions for me is who will be similar to Horford in the middle? And who will have the FIRE of Noah? Noah's passion for the game is possibly the most important aspect of their success. This kind of passion for the game was certainly missing from this year's Zag team. The closest to it is Pargo, and maybe now that the old regime has moved on, the new one will be full of life and passion. Pendograft certainly can display passion as well, and I think downs. We need more FUEGO.....lots more.

As far as the stopper in the middle, for me that's the biggest question ? mark. Horford is awesome. And we need that kind of power inside. And we also need a low post presence on offense as well, as Horford provides. This, I believe, is the Zags missing link.....Josh has not shown that he can be a down low force, and I compare Josh more to Noah, but so far lacking the passion for the game. I am most curious about Davis, since I haven't seen him play. But from what I have read, he could be a good tough presence down low. What do you guys know about Davis?

These are the $64,000 questions. Passion, leadership, toughness... Davis is a quiet, humble kid so don't expect him to be like Noah, although Theo is tough. Who will be our Horford, our Noah, our Brewer, I don't know. There's an answer somewhere on the roster, I'm sure.

sonuvazag
04-02-2007, 11:15 AM
Good point. The 98-99 team had varied weapons and eveyone had big games here and there. No one was the prima star and that team was legit team first. Eaton and Hall score more than Calvary? Did not know that.

And you're right about missing less bunnies. Consistent production, yes. No one should be absent on the floor.

RanchZagFan
04-02-2007, 11:55 AM
Guys, c'mon now. We went to the Elite 8 once eight years ago. We play in the WCC, which is maybe the weakest mid-major conference in the country. I realize it's kind of fun to compare our potential lineup next year to Florida's lineup this year, but give me a break boys. Let's try to keep it little bit real and objective and show just a little sophistication as Zag fans. We are what we are, and that's not too shabby.

To the point, making certain assumptions, I think that Heytvelt and Bouldin will be the two leading scorers next year. Also, any of you guys who have watched Daye play in person (as I have several times), would probably agree that he's not going to score more than 6 or 7 ppg next year. Physically a very weak player at this point. He'll be a great one eventually I believe, but not next year.

hls97
04-02-2007, 12:59 PM
Green -- Pargo should be his equal, if not better.

Brewer -- Downs, with his long arms and versatility. Needs to get stronger and tougher.

Horford -- Heytvelt can be as dominating.

Noah -- Theo Davis. Needs to play with the same enthusiasm and relentless determination.

Humphrey -- This is a tough one, as we don't have a dead-eye marksman on next year's team (other than possibly Downs, but I see him as more of a Brewer-type). I will say Bouldin here, but he has to improve his shot (and he is more of a ballhandler than Humphrey). Maybe Gray here in time, but not next year.

Overall, not a bad impersonation of the champs! Bring on 2008!

RanchZagFan
04-02-2007, 02:13 PM
Kind of silly, lightweight stuff hls97. Tell you what, I'll start a thread comparing my son's state championship contending high school team to Florida on a man by man basis and get myself all giddy. Al Horford will be a top 5-10 pick in the upcoming NBA draft and Micah Downs shouldn't even be mentioned in the same paragraph as Brewer. C'mon dude, at least try to come up with something remotely close to reality. What you want to be true just isn't going to happen simply because you wish it so.

Northspokane
04-02-2007, 02:36 PM
I agree with Ranch.. be realistic and not make assumtions on players who haven't even played a game yet or maybe Daye will average 30pts a game in college from day 1.(BIG TIME SARCASM)

lothar98zag
04-02-2007, 02:36 PM
Kind of silly, lightweight stuff hls97...C'mon dude, at least try to come up with something remotely close to reality. What you want to be true just isn't going to happen simply because you wish it so.
Good luck getting Zag fans on a Zag board to not think positively about the future.

RebornZag
04-02-2007, 02:39 PM
RZF: It's Spring....the best time of the year for me to Dream....and fantacize....what's wrong with it???? I do dream of making the Final 4 every year....I Dream of making the Elite 8, and yes I DREAM OF ONE DAY SEEING THE ZAGS BECOME THE NATIONAL CHAMPS.... What better way to do this then compare them to the current champions? If Florida loses to Ohio St tonight, I may compare them to Ohio St tomorrow....Being a Zag is being a DREAMER....AT LEAST FOR me. I don't need permission either..........:D

sonuvazag
04-02-2007, 02:43 PM
Gonzaga = Florida ... why is that so hard to accept?

BobZag
04-02-2007, 03:01 PM
Kind of silly, lightweight stuff hls97. Tell you what, I'll start a thread comparing my son's state championship contending high school team to Florida on a man by man basis and get myself all giddy. Al Horford will be a top 5-10 pick in the upcoming NBA draft and Micah Downs shouldn't even be mentioned in the same paragraph as Brewer. C'mon dude, at least try to come up with something remotely close to reality. What you want to be true just isn't going to happen simply because you wish it so.

We're trying to irk you so you'll post more, sucka. :lmao:

hls97
04-02-2007, 03:53 PM
Kind of silly, lightweight stuff hls97. Tell you what, I'll start a thread comparing my son's state championship contending high school team to Florida on a man by man basis and get myself all giddy. Al Horford will be a top 5-10 pick in the upcoming NBA draft and Micah Downs shouldn't even be mentioned in the same paragraph as Brewer. C'mon dude, at least try to come up with something remotely close to reality. What you want to be true just isn't going to happen simply because you wish it so.

Dude, relax. I was making the closest comparisons I could. I never said they were equal. But it does give us something to shoot for.

Oh, and by the way, I heard your son isn't very good.

Bocco
04-02-2007, 04:07 PM
Btw, something that I believe is important: Those averages above must be consistent, meaning Bouldin, for example, can't score 25 one night and 5 the next game. A steady, consistent ppg beats one that's all over the board, irratic as hell.

BZ I agree with you. I would much rather see consistant scoring than a couple of games with 5-6 points and then a 20pt game. If this team can do that then like the '99 team there will not be a specific go to guy, there will be 5+ with the go to guy who ever has a good open look. That being said there were a number of times when a player (Pendo and Bouldin come to mind) passed up open shots, I hope this doesn't happen next year.

IMHO Pendo will be good for a steady 12ppg next year.

lothar98zag
04-02-2007, 04:11 PM
Oh, and by the way, I heard your son isn't very good.
Huh?

Whatever that means...

:confused:



Let's not make this personal. Please try to stay on topic. Thanks.

BobZag
04-02-2007, 04:23 PM
If the thoughts, analysis and reasons of our posters are correct, here is how the Starting 5 breaks down for next season--

Pargo - 12 ppg (will distribute more, thus no point improvement)
Bouldin - 12 ppg (it was 13.5 but some agree he "may" be the guy who "may" not score 10, so I bumped him down a bit)
Downs - 14 ppg (this was the easiest, you guys seem pretty sure)
Heytvelt - 14 ppg (majority agreed Josh "may" be the guy who "may" not get 10, so he was bumped down a few points from consensus)
Fifth Player - 10 ppg (CDC thinks it's important to get 10 points here and it's looking like Pendo or Daye are likeliest to do that, according to majority)

I'd like to know what is unrealistic to expect Pargo to stay the same (scoring wise), for Bouldin to improve 3.1 points over his freshman year, for Downs to improve 5.9 points over his first and only 1.5 months in a Zag uni, for Heytvelt to score 1.5 points less than last season and for a fifth starter like Pendo or Daye or some other newcomer to put up approx 10.

Seems doable to me.

RanchZagFan
04-02-2007, 04:24 PM
hls97, I heard you are really immature and not very bright. C'mon dude...you've got to come with something stronger than that ridiculous response.

Gonzaga can never be Florida, OSU, UCLA, UNC, KU, etc., etc., etc. Not going to happen. It takes consistently signing top 25 players (i.e., potential NBA lottery picks) every year over a number of years in order to get to the point where a program is in the mix to go to the Final 4 every year. We can dream all we want, but the fundamental elements are not in place for a school from the WCC to be a truly elite program. Having said that, it is definitely possible on a one shot basis for the Zags to catch lightning in a bottle and get to the Final 4 at some point (see George Mason last year), but it's not a realistic goal on a yearly basis. Win the WCC, get to the Dance and win a game or two, and maybe once every 10 years or so get to the Elite 8. That's as good as it's going to get out of the WCC. The elite players in this country by and large don't grow up dreaming about playing in the WCC and being Zags...they dream about playing in the ACC, the PAC10, etc. and then moving on to the NBA. Dream away though. It makes for entertaining reading.

BobZag, as long folks keep posting silliness, I promise to post more in response. Good to see you cracking yourself up BTW.

BobZag
04-02-2007, 04:37 PM
In response to several posters above:

I have not seen Theo play/practice, but have noted him on the sidelines at a number of games this year. He doesn't strike me as having the body of a banger, or a 5 guy - looks like a 4 or maybe even a 3 kind of guy to me.

Defense will be the critical factor in tough/tournament games next year, not offense. Our defense against the 3 has been poor for years. It seems to me that that primarily has been a function of playing zone, with too much collapsing for double teams down low (trying to save our inside guys from fouling out). I think with the athleticism and depth we now have with 4s and 5s we could play more man defense with less collapsing.

Defense has to improve. It flat out fell apart a few times last season and cost the Zags. I've always felt if the guards can pick up opposing guards near halfcourt and body up on those guards, if they get by the guard, the coaches have to trust the bigs, or else have wide-open 3-point shooters bombs away again...and again...and again...

hls97
04-02-2007, 04:39 PM
RanchZagFan,

I won't bother responding to your absurd "not very bright" comment. I think our respective screen handles will settle that dispute.

As for your other point, you once again have demonstrated your failure to comprehend what you (I assume) read. I never said GU was Florida or that it was capable of competing on a yearly basis with Florida. My point was simply to compare (in a light-hearted manner) players on GU's team next year with players on Florida's team this year. You then got your panties all twisted about me being "silly" and "giddy."

My whole point was that it is not inconceivable that the Zags could do next year what Florida is doing this year. You basically admit this in your latest post.

But, please, let's not bring our respective intelligence into the debate. You will lose, I promise you.

RanchZagFan
04-02-2007, 04:51 PM
Okay hls97...you've sufficiently intimidated me with your incandescent (look it up) intelligence, so uncle regarding which of us is smarter.

Help me out here. Are you seriously saying that next year's Gonzaga team can plausibly stack up with this year's Florida team? And are you further saying that Gonzaga is a legit contender to win a ship next year?

BTW, go back and read your original post. You're the guy who made things personal. I was simply responding to what I viewed as an immature and unintelligent jab. Further BTW, it's actually a daughter, not a son, and she's the number 5 ranked junior in the country (I made the son part up to help make my point since it didn't work as well with a girl).

hls97
04-02-2007, 04:59 PM
Thank you for conceding the intelligence point.

I do believe that Gonzaga is a legitimate title contender next year. You appear to be selling them really, really short. Pargo-Bouldin/Downs-Pendo/Daye-Davis/Kuso-Heytvelt is a legit Final Four-contending line-up. I really believe that.

Your first response to my post was personal -- you attacked it as silly and proceeded to mock the post with an absurd comparison to your son's/daughter's high school team. I retaliated. Simple as that.

BobZag
04-02-2007, 05:06 PM
What's your opinion of Matt Bouldin, RZF? Thanks in advance for your reply.

RebornZag
04-02-2007, 06:30 PM
Originally posted by BobZ
Defense has to improve. It flat out fell apart a few times last season and cost the Zags. I've always felt if the guards can pick up opposing guards near halfcourt and body up on those guards, if they get by the guard, the coaches have to trust the bigs, or else have wide-open 3-point shooters bombs away again...and again...and again...
__________________________________________________ _______________

The Zags need to learn to close out on shooters better. Because when we don't this is often the reason that our guards are getting beat on dribble penetration. Opposing guards will head fake, Zags with poor close out techniques result in being off balance, and then opponents penetrate.

Many teams double down low. This has created problems for Zags once again because of our slowness. Bouldin, I think, is the slowest Zag on closeouts, and I would not use him to double down low. And we usually did. I really don't think that with this team, doubling down low is a good option for the Zags with teams that have great shooters. That, in my opinion, is what beats us. That and zone defense. The outcome is the same...opponents nailing 3's.

The other option we have is to NOT double down low, and that means we need to find defensive players down low who can play one on one Defense. Kuso definitely can. Josh should be able to, but he needs to work really hard to learn the proper footwork. These two guys, along with Davis and Sacre, all need to work on low post Defense.

The key to Gonzaga's game, and the key to Florida's, is Offense. Florida is giving points to Odon...they don't care. They are going to score. It's the same mentality that Few has always used. And so far it's working. I like Few's style of basketball, which is Offense first. And then they work on D. You say, look at what it's got us? A lot. 9 straight trips to the NCAA tournament, four trips to Sweet 16 and 1 trip to Elite 8. IN my opinion, we have had one team that could have made the final 4 so far, and it was last years team. And it may have been the worst Defensive Team we've ever had. I think Defense is really important, and I know Few does as well. Why wouldn't he. He doesn't want to be Michigan State or Illinois. He wants to be Gonzaga, and in my opinion Gonzaga is most like Florida.

What Florida has that the Zags don't are the players. In the end, it's the players who win it all, and the coaches give them the best structure that they have that will help them do that. The X and O's are important, but not the most important part of basketball...IMO. It's the players, and like Florida, getting them to play together and make that extra pass. We are going to improve next year because our players will be better....That's a fact. It's not fantacy as some would have you.

Will we win it all? Who knows. That's why we play the game. Will we make it to the Elite 8 or Final 4. Who knows? That's why we play the games...Who knew last year that Florida would become the team they have become. I think no one....including themselves. No one really knows. That's the beauty of sports. And part of the fun of it all is trying to act like we do know. That's the fun of being a fan. However, I think we all agree on one thing...we are getting the players. Yeah!!!:drool:

RanchZagFan
04-02-2007, 07:56 PM
Great post RebornZag...some serious hoops chops shown in your analysis. I'm probably not as high on the Zags chances to go deep in the tournament next year as you are, but you make some outstanding points...good stuff!

BobZag, you're obviously a smart guy and are fishing a bit with your question. I have a pretty strong notion that you know how I am going to answer your question. IMHO, Matt will be the Zags best player next year and is the program's best NBA prospect. That answer about what you expected?

97, I'll let the personal stuff go. Given your opinion that Gonzaga will be a legit Final 4 contender next year, where do you anticipate the Zags will be ranked in the preseason polls?

GU69
04-02-2007, 08:01 PM
Gonzaga can never be Florida, OSU, UCLA, UNC, KU, etc., etc., etc. Not going to happen.

Ya. Probably not. I just watched Florida and Ohio State, and I'm thinking that either of them would have creamed us this year.

And those other schools . . . how would we have done against UCLA last year? Oh, that's right, we did play them -- and didn't do that poorly. But what about UNC this year? Oh, that's right, we did play them -- and didn't do that poorly.

Back when we were in the Big Sky I was pretty convinced that Gonzaga could never be a Washington, or a Washington State, or a Stanford, etc., etc., etc. Not going to happen.

sonuvazag
04-02-2007, 08:04 PM
Micah Downs shouldn't even be mentioned in the same paragraph as Brewer.

...sounds like a hasty comment and not grounded in reality. Downs potential to succeed at the colleve level in comparison to Corey Brewer as rated by an independent objective source is strikingly similar:

Taken from Rivals.com
Corey Brewer's national player ranking in 2004: 31
Micah Downs national player ranking in 2005: 28

I refrain from opinion. In terms of potential out of high school, I refer to an objective source so you can see where Downs could at least be said to be rated equivalent in potential to Brewer. Brewer has done more so far, but we are talking about our hopes and expectations for next year so it's not out of line to compare these two. I've also heard from insiders that Downs has aspects to his game he has not shown yet. What you believe about his game may be based on limited info. Why don't we at least say, the jury awaits further info.

As for our ability to compete at the highest level. On the one hand, we're not a part of major conferenece. On the other, we are a media darling, rivaled by few in terms of television exposure. That is a fact and most independent objective analysis I read suggest GU is the exception to the mid-major rule. Keeping it real. BTW. What do you think of Florida's chances next year after they lose Donovon to UK on Wednesday?

RanchZagFan
04-02-2007, 08:13 PM
GU69, your sarcasm aside, I'm not sure exactly what you're trying to say. Of course Gonzaga is the type of program at this point that can beat very good teams from time to time and make pretty regular runs in the Dance to the Sweet 16 and even the Elite 8 every decade or so. My point is simply that it is almost impossible for a team from a conference such as the WCC to consistently attract the type of players every year over a period of years necessary to be a top 10-15 team year in and year out and to be a legitimate contender to get to the Elite 8 and beyond every year. So what? Gonzaga is a great school with an outstanding basketball program led by one of the truly outstanding coaches in the country. They play an entertaining brand of hoops and the kids (for the most part) are terrific people. Who the heck cares if they aren't UNC or KU or Duke?! It is what it is, and that's more than enough IMO. No harm in dreaming about Final 4s and ships, but understand that dreams are just that.

Bocco
04-02-2007, 08:14 PM
Back when we were in the Big Sky I was pretty convinced that Gonzaga could never be a Washington, or a Washington State, or a Stanford, etc., etc., etc. Not going to happen.

Back when we were in the Big Sky I just hoped we would finish at .500, and when we switched to the WCAC (WCC) if figured we would be lucky if we would win half our home games let alone any on the road, and that we would someday be in the NCAA tournament????

So one year we make it. Thought I'd died and gone to heaven. Then a couple of years later we went again, and the next year, and the next, and the next........

So, heck why can't we win the whole thing?

RanchZagFan
04-02-2007, 08:28 PM
sonu, point taken...I might've been a bit hasty, so we'll see where Downs ends up. I will say, however, that he has a long ways to go on the defensive end to be anywhere near as good as Brewer. I also agree with you to a certain extent regarding the Zags being a bit of an exception to the mid-major "rule". UF loses their entire starting 5 next year, so I have to believe they will be down a fair amount whether Billy leaves or not. Don't be surprised if he ends up with the Heat. He's close to Pat Riley and wants to try his hand at the NBA as I understand it.

sonuvazag
04-02-2007, 08:38 PM
GU is definitely it's own thing and defies convention. Clearly, no one wants to call us a prestige power program at the level of UCLA, Duke, Kansas, Florida, UNC, Kentucky, etc. Without the WCC getting better, I also doubt GU can rise much higher in the long term and that's why I'm hoping the WCC figures out how to recruit itself as the Gonzaga conference to change that. Worse case scenario, is that Gonzaga will at least be able to maintain current wonder status for quite some time. We look at Florida and ask, can we do something like that as far as the style of their game and get to the Sweet 16 again? Not deluded to the point where I say we have the same advantages as a BCS program overall.

Donovan to the Heat, huh? Will he be the one college coach to actually succeed in the NBA where all else have withered?

RanchZagFan
04-02-2007, 08:56 PM
Great post sonu...we're on the same page.

Yeah, would be interesting to see how Billy would do in the league. Pitino was on Rome the other day and had an interesting observation (sort of self-serving as you might expect) regarding the seeming lack of success college coaches have had in the pro game. His contention is that college coaches have typically gotten the dreg NBA jobs and really are sort of doomed to fail. Pitino himself with the Celts (Rick is easily one of the top 2 or 3 most hated sports figures in Boston) Krueger with the Hawks, Hamilton with the Wizards, Montgomery with Golden State, etc...you get the idea. Might be something to it. Obviously Pitino had success with the Knicks and Larry Brown won a ship with KU and got to the title game with UCLA.

lothar98zag
04-02-2007, 08:59 PM
My point is simply that it is almost impossible for a team from a conference such as the WCC to consistently attract the type of players every year over a period of years necessary to be a top 10-15 team year in and year out and to be a legitimate contender to get to the Elite 8 and beyond every year.

But not impossible.

RebornZag
04-02-2007, 09:01 PM
Originally posted by RanchZagfan

"No harm in dreaming about Final 4s and ships, but understand that dreams are just that."
__________________________________________________ _______________

Glad to see you to admit that much, RZF. You're headin in the right direction now. Do you know how many things that you see in the world that you observe actually came from dreams? Of course I come from a time in our histroy when people believed in Dreams. Did you know that what IS happening at Gonzaga actually came from dreaming? Did you know that? :)

And I'm sure to your dismay, the Dream has not been fully achieved...And as some famous person once said, "stay tuned for the rest of the story." Or something like that...

lothar98zag
04-02-2007, 09:04 PM
Further BTW, it's actually a daughter, not a son, and she's the number 5 ranked junior in the country (I made the son part up to help make my point since it didn't work as well with a girl).

Well congrats to your daughter, Brooklyn Pope (http://scout.scout.com/a.z?s=209&p=9&cfg=wbb&c=4&pid=88&yr=2008) (#5 2008 on scout.com) for being so good at basketball. Luckily for her she's not being recruited by the pathetic WCC and will actually be able to go to a school that won't need a miracle to win a national championship.


Finally, welcome to GUBoards. Did you become a Zag fan while living in Ft Worth or were you a fan while living elsewhere and then you moved to Texas?

RanchZagFan
04-02-2007, 09:05 PM
lothar, true dat.

RBZ, dude I'm a Red Sox guy, so I lived the impossible dream in October of 2004.

sonuvazag
04-02-2007, 09:09 PM
I lived the impossible dream in October of 2004

I was already thinking that. 2004 ALCS should be an amazing memory for everyone... except the 25% of baseball fans who reportedly support the regime.

RanchZagFan
04-02-2007, 09:18 PM
lothar, nice use of the internet. Okay, you got me...I made up the daughter thing during my little spat with 97. The guy was acting like a bit of a tool, so there you go.

Never lived in Texas. Been there a few times. My Zag fandom goes back to the Johnny Stock days my man. How 'bout you?

lothar98zag
04-02-2007, 09:25 PM
lothar, nice use of the internet. Okay, you got me...I made up the daughter thing during my little spat with 97. The guy was acting like a bit of a tool, so there you go.

Never lived in Texas. Been there a few times. My Zag fandom goes back to the Johnny Stock days my man. How 'bout you?
So you say you have a son that plays hoops. oops, kidding. Then you say you have a nationally ranked daughter. oops, not true either. And you want people to believe that you are actually a Zag fan after 6 straight hours of negative/anti/"realistic" Zag posts? Good luck w/ that.



& btw, I came to GU w/o knowing anything about the hoops team. I became a fan when I stepped on campus in the Fall of 1994 - back when Fitz was the coach (same coach as when your boy, Johnny Stock [sic] was still in college).

RanchZagFan
04-02-2007, 09:33 PM
lothar, the missing "ton" was intentional...like I said, Johnny Stock.

No matter to me what you believe. The son/daughter thing was a joke intended to help make a point to a guy who was having a hard time with comprehension.

I'll say it once again. Gonzaga is an absolutely fantastic program and I'm a big fan. However, I'll be real in discussing its prospects and you can be whatever it is you want to be. I don't care one way or the other. If you post something interesting or make I point I disagree with, I'll respond. That's how these boards are supposed to work. What's the big friggin' deal?

TrueLiz
04-02-2007, 09:33 PM
UF loses their entire starting 5 next year, so I have to believe they will be down a fair amount whether Billy leaves or not.

I was thinking the same thing, but recalled how I felt when David Lee's 4 years were up, and Anthony Roberson & Matt Walsh made the questionable decisions to jump early to the NBA, and didn't get drafted. I, for one, was just hoping they could get a 20-win season, with Lee Humphrey as the only player returning with significant playing time.

I'm not saying Florida will win it all again with unknown players, but not a single "expert" in the media predicted Florida would even be in the top 4 in the SEC in '05-'06, let alone do what they did. I'm somewhat curious what team might pull off that kind of surprise next year, even if they don't win it all. It certainly speaks to the fact that teamwork is more important than "star" players, like the afore-mentioned Gators.

MDABE80
04-02-2007, 10:15 PM
RZF....it's always best to have friends on board. We just want to make friends and get to know you a bit. Helps to be able to have some trust and confidence in newcomers. Obviously you know a great deal about the college basketball game. You love the Zags but it's quite a "balanced" love in that you seem to be comfortable defining the bad as well as the good parts.

Welcome aboard. The moderators are indeed smart basketball brains. Let's let these initial missteps die off. As for me, I always like to support the new posters. Let's make this a good experience for you and for the old hands.

Again, welcome aboard. If you need some guidance and want some help on how to operate or navigate let one of the mods know. You'll generally find a friendly environment. We're the good guys. Best wishes on your future posts. Abe

roxdoc
04-03-2007, 06:22 AM
Does the impossible dream thing work for Cubs fans too? Just wondering!

RanchZagFan
04-03-2007, 09:11 AM
Doc Abe, I hear ya. Honestly though, we're not sending a man to the moon here. I'm not a message board neophyte, so I have a pretty good idea regarding board dynamics. I'll offer up opinions without much regard to what other folks think about them, but I'll try to keep things on the high road as much as possible. From what I've seen, you guys could use someone with a few contrary thoughts. The group hug thing gets a bit old after a while if you know what I mean.

To the point of the thread, as has been stated numerous times, offense will not be a problem for next year's squad. However, deep runs in the Dance require consistently good defense, both in terms of game long efforts and the ability to get stops and the end of games when it matters. It's a mindset thing, and until the Zags buy in on defense, the Final 4 is but a pipe dream.

Birddog
04-03-2007, 09:50 AM
In the interest of trying to keep posts on topic and not duplicate I chose this thread for the following.

My girlfriend works at a local college (NAIA) and knows their BB coach pretty well. He has ties to GU through Krause and he knows that I am an alum and fan.
Yesterday he told my GF that he had spent some time the last few days with Few and co. He told her in no uncertain terms to tell me that next years team was gonna be really STRONG, and would surprise some folks because of their youth. Take it FWIW. It's just more hearsay, but I respect this guy and his ties. He's a long time coach and a no nonsense type.

Birddog

Zags4life
04-03-2007, 02:19 PM
From what I've seen, you guys could use someone with a few contrary thoughts.

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I really enjoy it when someone I've never met tells me what I need. I'm so thankful that we finally have a friend willing to speak truth to our insular little conclave. No more baseless optimism from this zag fan!

Angelo Roncalli
04-03-2007, 02:25 PM
From what I've seen, you guys could use someone with a few contrary thoughts.

Are "contrary thoughts" venial sins or mortal sins? Venial, I think. Bowser would know.

UberZagFan
04-03-2007, 02:28 PM
"Zags Fans have Spoken - Consensus"?

Apparently not.

BobZag
04-03-2007, 02:49 PM
In the interest of trying to keep posts on topic and not duplicate I chose this thread for the following.

My girlfriend works at a local college (NAIA) and knows their BB coach pretty well. He has ties to GU through Krause and he knows that I am an alum and fan.
Yesterday he told my GF that he had spent some time the last few days with Few and co. He told her in no uncertain terms to tell me that next years team was gonna be really STRONG, and would surprise some folks because of their youth. Take it FWIW. It's just more hearsay, but I respect this guy and his ties. He's a long time coach and a no nonsense type.

Birddog

You bleeping pollyanna!

VanZagar
04-03-2007, 02:54 PM
RDF has surely stirred this ###. There is merit to much of what he says. But it aint necessarily so. Zags can compete at a higher level than they have so far. Florida is a great collection of talent; but we know what UCLA is. The Zags can compete on their level; so can the Cougs and apparantly the Huskies too. Certain elite teams like Ohio State and Florida will always present matchup problems for most everyone but they can't stay together long. They must always rebuild. A Zag team with lots of upperclassmen could be a force; year after next!

dawgman1999
04-03-2007, 03:39 PM
A lot of people here want to compare next year's team to the current Florida team. I am with RZF on most of his points, but I think one thing that a lot of us forget is next year's team is a young team. It's going to take time for them to gel.

The top 7 in his Florida team's rotation has 2 seniors in Humphrey and Richards, 4 juniors in Noah, Horford, Brewer and Green, and 1 sophmore in Walter Hodge. These guys have been playing together for 3+ years. They have the experience from last year's championship run. They didn't become this good right away in their freshman year.

You look at next year's Zags team. Both Downs and Heytvelt (if he's back) really only played 1 season of CBB. Kuso has 1 year playing at this level. So besides Pendergraft and Pargo, everybody on this team either has no experience or 1 year of experience playing in this level.

I think to say Downs = Brewer, Davis = Noah and Heytvelt = Horford is unrealistic. They may have the potential down the road, but expect that to happen next year is ridiculous, especially the Davis = Noah comparison. The guy hasn't played 1 minute of CBB, and you think he can be = 2005 FF MOP and a NBA lottery pick in his freshman year? The probability of that happening is about 1% at most. I buy that given couple more years of development, Downs might be close to Brewer, probably a 20% chance by Downs senior year. Same goes for the chance Heytvelt = Horford. But given Heytvelt and Downs past, it'd be a miracle if those two can stay on the team for the next 2 years. If they have a breakout year, they go to the NBA, if they face adversity, they don't have a good history of handling them. So to pin the program's hope on those 2 guys are just like as a Cubs fan, I am hoping Wood and Prior are healthy each year.

Basically, you got to have everything in the sky align to have those things happen in 2009 to have a chance to make that kind of comparison. No chance in 2008 though. I agree with RZF, it's a dream. But I may have better odds wining the Washington State lottery for that happen.

hls97
04-03-2007, 06:26 PM
No matter to me what you believe. The son/daughter thing was a joke intended to help make a point to a guy who was having a hard time with comprehension.



And here I thought you were going to "let the personal stuff go." You, sir, are a liar.

You need to lie (and make a pathetic attempt at bragging) in order to make your "point"? What a joke. Your point was, and remains, unfounded. Lying doesn't make it any stronger. I suggest you stop lying about being a Zags fan and go back to the Husky board.

RebornZag
04-03-2007, 07:22 PM
I agree that we are, as usual, quite divided in our opinions of Zag Potential. I can only speak for myself but I was comparing next year's Zags to last years Gators. If we win a final 4 next year, then we can compare that team to this years Gators. :D

I think the key is how good we play as a TEAM. Individually we match up pretty well with anyone. On paper. The key is playing the game. On paper I thought we'd beat Indiana this year. I really did. So it isn't really about the match-ups or statistics...It's about how we play the game, at game time. And I think the key is twofold. How unselfish are we, and how confident are we.....And at this point of the year it's way to early to talk about that. we won't know anything until we start playing next year.

But what the heck, it's April. We have a long ways to go. For me it's not so much that we are as good or not as good as Florida. I like the way Florida plays the game. And I think Mark Few has a very similar style of play. Because of that, I think it's fun to compare players from the two teams to see if we CAN do what Florida has done. You are right about the maturity of this years Florida team. Richards and Humphrey are Seniors. That's why we can't be compared with this team, but can be with the Gator's a year ago.

brasszag
04-03-2007, 07:33 PM
Next year is year two of the "transition period" I'm thinking.

Get the Frosh up to speed in the system and let the "vets" do the heavy lifting for most of the year - more so than usual I think. The only frosh I see getting significant time is Sacre... as our new 5. However, the Frosh should get some significant minutes in our first few "warm up" games so that Few and Co get a good look at what to develop over the year - then only play for limited duty until we get near the end of teh WCC season where they'll start playing a more major role.

2008-2009 is the year.

With the incoming classes we're getting lined up, it'll be important to have all the Zags in a row and developed - and not to lean too heavy on them early.

Bocco
04-03-2007, 10:10 PM
I agree with Brasszag next year will be a transition year part II, but it should be a better year than the one just completed. I really think the following two years 2008-09 and 2009-10 will be when we finally get over the hump and into the FF. Not that it couldn'g happen next year, its just more likely in the following year or so.

Of course that assumes no major loss of players to to injuries, grades, etc (this statement was included to placate the wet blankets out there bound and determined to bring "their reality" into the picture and rain on our parade.:rolleyes:

VanZagar
04-04-2007, 04:28 AM
There is only one possible matchup with Florida that could favor the zags. I think Josh has more talent than Noah. He's as tall, as quick, has a much better shot and maybe plays higher above the rim. Josh is no center he doesn't match as well with Horford.

RanchZagFan
04-06-2007, 01:43 PM
hls97, beautiful...gotta be at least an 8 or 9 on the Bill Simmons unintentional comedy scale. "You sir, are a liar". Absolutely priceless. Tell you what dude, let us all know when you move out of your mom's basement and then maybe I can take your posts seriously. Until then, let's just ignore one another...that work for you?

BTW, not sure why I would spend one second on a UW message board. The only college hoops programs I have any association with are Gonzaga, Miami (Fla) and UCLA.

Wolkster
04-06-2007, 03:47 PM
>"You sir, are a liar". Absolutely priceless.

I agree with hls97. It helps me identify what you really are and to take everything you say from now on with a grain of salt. Say hello to your daughter.

Why do I see RZF posting, but keep thinking I'm reading 23dpg?

RanchZagFan
04-06-2007, 04:20 PM
As previously stated, thanks for the gracious thoughts Wolkster...you must be quite a guy.

lothar98zag
04-06-2007, 04:27 PM
http://www.nurseweek.com/photos/99-5/Signlg.jpg