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BobZag
05-16-2009, 10:28 AM
If you go back 4-5 years, you'll see the Zags average anywhere from 76 to 80 ppg. It's pretty much a given that Mark Few's 2009-10 edition will do the same. So, how do YOU break down the scoring, with Austin and without Austin, and assuming Kong is here in both scenarios? Roughly, here are my breakdowns, and let's use 78 ppg to meet in the middle...

With Austin--

Bouldin - 15
Daye - 15
Gray - 13
Elias - 9
Sacre - 7
Kong - 6
Poling - 5
Meech - 5
Everyone else - 4 (Gibbs, Vilarino, Dower, Arop, I assume Olynyk redshirts

= 78 (correct me if my math is wrong)

Without Austin--

Bouldin - 17
Gray - 14
Elias - 10
Sacre - 8
Kong - 8
Poling - 6
Meech - 6
Everyone else - 8 (see above)

Now, my big question for ye is are above guesstimations realistic, unrealistic, and if so, how so and offer your best guesstimations. For instance, do I ask too much of Bouldin and not enough of other guys?

75Zag
05-16-2009, 11:02 AM
The "no Daye" scenario is intimidating. IF Sacre stays healthy, seems to me he MUST step up his offensive production at the low post, and get 12 ppg. Poling has the potential to score well above 5 or 6 ppg if his summer weight room time is well spent and productive. I would put him closer to 10 after the first few games. I will be very happy if Harris hits your predictions during the first half of the season. This is Bouldin's team and Boundin's year. Hope he knows it and produces accordingly.

Not so worried about the undersized and weak-sister competition in the WCC, but against elite schools early (Duke?) I am fearful that GU won't have the scoring horses to do much. Hope I am wrong, wrong, wrong.

Go Bulldogs! Get Bigger!

mez124
05-16-2009, 12:04 PM
Id go more along the lines of this

Daye - NBA 5 ppg

Bouldin - 12 - he might lead the team in assists
Gray - 14 - will take more responsibility
Sacre- 10
Poling- 11
Kong - 6
Harris- 8
Gibbs- 4
Arop- 7
Meech- 6

Red Shirt Kelly O, GJ V. , Sam D

I think Matt will be the leader but not the leading scorer, Gray has all of the tools but hasn't been comfortable in his role. This year he will be the go to guy, take the big shots, and do it well. Andy Poling was also a top 25 recruit long ago and will surprise us all at the 4. I think it will be a well balanced team, much like last year with a different leading scorer each night. IS IT NOVEMBER YET???

Nevtelen
05-16-2009, 01:43 PM
If you go back 4-5 years, you'll see the Zags average anywhere from 76 to 80 ppg. It's pretty much a given that Mark Few's 2009-10 edition will do the same. So, how do YOU break down the scoring, with Austin and without Austin, and assuming Kong is here in both scenarios?

Now, my big question for ye is are above guesstimations realistic, unrealistic, and if so, how so and offer your best guesstimations. For instance, do I ask too much of Bouldin and not enough of other guys?

With Austin back -

Bouldin - 15 ppg
Daye - 16 ppg
Gray - 11 ppg
Sacre - 9 ppg
Meech - 6 ppg
Poling - 5 ppg
Harris - 6 ppg
Kong - 5 ppg
Gibbs - 1 ppg
Arop - 1 ppg
Vilarino - 2 ppg
Dower - 2 ppg

Olynyk redshirts. That should be 79 ppg. I think the 5 starters would be Meech, Bouldin, Gray, Daye, and Sacre, with Poling (4-5), Harris (3-4), and Kong (2?-3) the 3 subs who see the most action, followed by Vilarino (who gives Meech a couple of short breathers a game). The other five guys only get irregular spot minutes.

Without Daye -

Bouldin - 15 ppg
Gray - 13 ppg
Sacre - 10 ppg
Meech - 8 ppg
Poling - 7 ppg
Harris - 7 ppg
Kong - 7 ppg
Dower - 3 ppg
Vilarino - 3 ppg
Arop - 2 ppg
Gibbs - 1 ppg
Foster - 1 ppg

Again, Olynyk redshirts. That's 77 ppg, a little less to reflect the youth of the team. The 5 starters (at least my best guess at them) would be Meech, Bouldin, Gray, Sacre, and Poling. The most-used subs in the rotation would be Kong (2?-3), Harris (3-4), and Dower (4-5), with Vilarino giving Meech strategic breathers at the 1 (and maybe Arop to give Bouldin breathers at the 2, depending on how Kong works out as a 2). Without Daye, the post rotation opens up a bit and just by virtue of different guys getting more minutes, I think their scoring will go up (Poling, Harris, and Kong would probably see the biggest bump IMO, since they kind of all have parts of Austin's position and/or skill set to some extent and seem to be potentially the most ready to step in and play immediately from reports). The vets would have to score more, but I think Bouldin's natural instinct would be to distribute more instead of really upping his personal ppg, hence his ppg stay about the same in both scenarios in my mind.

spudzag
05-16-2009, 06:28 PM
Looking at the 2009 stats it looks like there was about 48 points from those moving to the professional ranks.

Josh 14.9
Matt 13.6
Austin 12.7
Jeremy 10.2
Micah 9.6
Steven 9.1

Matt will definately need to expand his scoring by 6 or so. Steven won't be at 9 next year with his playing time increase now that he won't be sharing with Micah. I'd expect an increase by 50%. Meech score just under 4 a game last year simply relieving Jeremy, I'd look for him to double his output. Rob's scoring was limited to 15 in 5 games last year. He should be able to get 3 garbage shots a game and a few free throws. Poling and Harris will platoon at PF and combine for say 16 a game. Kong gets a little relief time learning the system. Grant, Manny, Sam and Gj get a few.

Matt - 18
Steven - 14
Meech - 8
Rob - 10
Poling - 8
Harris -10
Kong -6
others -6

Good year for some, frustrating of others.

bballbeachbum
05-16-2009, 11:10 PM
what a fun thread!

if Austin stays...hmmm, don't know, it just doesn't feel that way

so while I can't put a number on anything, I believe that Steven will have every opportunity to lead the team in scoring, taking nothing away from Matt or anyone else. I see it more like mez124

but Matt will be POY because of all he does. Heck, he earned it last year, just didn't get the vote imo.

GO TEAM ZAGS!!!

tyra
05-17-2009, 09:43 AM
BobZ: You're math is wrong on the "with Daye" scenario. Your point total is 79. But that is an error we can certainly live with :)

I can't play here. Too many new faces. We have no idea how this will shake out and what PT will look like let alone scoring. I find that extremely fun but it make the anticipation of next year (always a hard thing) almost unbearable.

Reborn
05-17-2009, 04:23 PM
If Austin comes back:

austin...21.7
Matt.....13.6
Steven..11.9
Meech...8.3
Sacre....8.4
Poling....5.3
Harris....6.1
Kong.....3.7
others 4.0
Total 80

Without Austin

Matt....18.2
Steven.13.5
Meech..09.2
Sacre....8.2
Harris...10.2
Poling....5.7
Kong.....6.3
Arop.....5.7
Other...4

Total 80

Total 76

mez124
05-17-2009, 09:09 PM
I didnt include austin in my point totals because i think he will be gone, however it would be absurd to think we would score the same amount of points with or without him... i think 78 is a reasonable total with who we know we have coming in. With Daye, however i think he alone would be worth another 5-8 points so if i were to do a chart with daye coming back i would have to make it higher than 78 or make my chart without him lower, because we all know this team will be very different with or without him. GO ZAGS and Good Luck to all those who are in the Draft ... including austin

MickMick
05-18-2009, 06:32 AM
Matt - WCC POY. Will lead the conference in scoring with or without Daye.

The one young man that might surprise everyone is that Foster kid from Santa Clara. He is very, very good and just might sneak in for that POY award.

Otherwise, BZ nailed the Zag scoring realistically.

cjm720
05-18-2009, 08:10 AM
We will be among the nations leading scoring teams, with or without Daye. I assume he's gone. I could also see at least 2 redshirts and a trasnfer. Few will have a challenge distributing minutes, but for the sake of this thread, let's assume he plays a deep rotation every night. I think Manny will be the suprise of the group!

Bouldin - 17
Gray - 15
Elias - 9
Sacre - 7
Kong - 8
Arop - 9
Poling - 7
Meech - 7
Everyone else - 5

= 84

Go Zags!!!

kitzbuel
05-18-2009, 09:20 AM
If Austin comes back:

austin...21.7
Matt.....13.6
Steven..11.9
Meech...8.3
Sacre....8.4
Poling....5.3
Harris....6.1
Kong.....3.7
others 4.0
Total 80

Without Austin

Matt....18.2
Steven.13.5
Meech..09.2
Sacre....8.2
Harris...10.2
Poling....5.7
Kong.....6.3
Arop.....5.7
Other...4

Total 80

Total 76

I like Reborn's distribution (I would decrease Harris' points and increase Poling's though). Few always tightens his rotation as the year goes on. If you look at the starting five averages for this year from Spudzag's post, you see that there are only about 4-10 points/game left to be distributed outside of the starters and sixth man.

KennewickZag
05-18-2009, 11:43 AM
With Austin:

Daye - 18
Bouldin - 14
Gray - 13
Meech - 6
Sacre - 8
Harris - 8
Poling - 5
Others - 6


Without Austin:

Bouldin - 18
Gray - 15
Meech - 7
Sacre - 10
Harris - 10
Poling - 6
Arop - 5
Others - 7

Regardless of Austin's decision, I think most of the production will come from returning players (incl. Sacre and Poling). I expect Sacre and Poling will be better offensively than most of us think. If Austin returns, it is because he was told he isn't ready for the NBA. This will give him the chip on his shoulder he needs to be a more dominant college player. As good as our incoming class could be, rarely do we get a lot out of true freshmen. Harris seems to be the most mature, so I'd be happy if he can come in and contribute significant minutes and points.

For Bouldin's sake, I hope Austin returns. I love Bouldin's game, but I don't think it is condusive to being the go to guy. He is better and more comfortable being a distributor and strategically picking his spots to score.

UberZagFan
05-18-2009, 04:56 PM
The "No Daye" Sacre needs to get to double digits and should get at least half of that at the line against lower level competition (about 2/3rds of GU's games next year).

Matty B & Gray will get theirs and low teens for both sounds about right. Poling may surprise some with points in the paint. The expectations for Harris in the No Daye situation seem to be lofty.

drogba11
05-18-2009, 05:28 PM
Its Ok To Post Your Opinion!

dim4sum
05-19-2009, 01:48 PM
I think Poling can put upbetter numbers than Sacre, given the playing time.
Poling looked pathetic in that one high school matchup against Sacre in North Vancouver. But he was ill. Recent video clips show me a Poling that is 300% better, if not another person completely.

NewbyZag
05-19-2009, 04:29 PM
Hey, haven't posted here in a while but still check it out every day. The fact of the matter is that i would be extremely surprised if austin comes back due to all of the points everyone has made (weak draft, 1st round pick, guaranteed money, etc.). With that said, i find it interesting that people around here have grant gibbs getting playing time. I'm not trying to bash him but i just dont see him getting a lick of playing time with the guys we have coming back/coming in. We have bouldin, gray, meech, vilarino (a more pure backup pg with more speed), hopefully kong, and arop. I know that some of these guys are unproven but i'd be really concerned if i was grant gibbs. I know that competition brings out the best in people but i wasn't really impressed with the signing of GG. He didn't seem to posses the athleticism or speed to defend or score at this level. At this point, GU needs guards who can compete athletically against the upper level teams that we will face both in our out of conference schedule and in the tourney. IMO vilarino, arop, and kong have that. If mark few wants to win, he has to bite the bullet and put the best players on the floor. He may prove me wrong, but i just don't see it happening. Any thoughts?

chirguy
05-20-2009, 12:56 PM
I think meech is going to score more like ten. He's aggresive and drives well to the hoop.

xjzico
05-20-2009, 02:03 PM
Hey, haven't posted here in a while but still check it out every day. The fact of the matter is that i would be extremely surprised if austin comes back due to all of the points everyone has made (weak draft, 1st round pick, guaranteed money, etc.). With that said, i find it interesting that people around here have grant gibbs getting playing time. I'm not trying to bash him but i just dont see him getting a lick of playing time with the guys we have coming back/coming in. We have bouldin, gray, meech, vilarino (a more pure backup pg with more speed), hopefully kong, and arop. I know that some of these guys are unproven but i'd be really concerned if i was grant gibbs. I know that competition brings out the best in people but i wasn't really impressed with the signing of GG. He didn't seem to posses the athleticism or speed to defend or score at this level. At this point, GU needs guards who can compete athletically against the upper level teams that we will face both in our out of conference schedule and in the tourney. IMO vilarino, arop, and kong have that. If mark few wants to win, he has to bite the bullet and put the best players on the floor. He may prove me wrong, but i just don't see it happening. Any thoughts?
FWIW Giacoletti seems to feel Gibbs accounted well for himself in the closed scrimmage against Texas.

cjm720
05-20-2009, 03:36 PM
Hey, haven't posted here in a while but still check it out every day. The fact of the matter is that i would be extremely surprised if austin comes back due to all of the points everyone has made (weak draft, 1st round pick, guaranteed money, etc.). With that said, i find it interesting that people around here have grant gibbs getting playing time. I'm not trying to bash him but i just dont see him getting a lick of playing time with the guys we have coming back/coming in. We have bouldin, gray, meech, vilarino (a more pure backup pg with more speed), hopefully kong, and arop. I know that some of these guys are unproven but i'd be really concerned if i was grant gibbs. I know that competition brings out the best in people but i wasn't really impressed with the signing of GG. He didn't seem to posses the athleticism or speed to defend or score at this level. At this point, GU needs guards who can compete athletically against the upper level teams that we will face both in our out of conference schedule and in the tourney. IMO vilarino, arop, and kong have that. If mark few wants to win, he has to bite the bullet and put the best players on the floor. He may prove me wrong, but i just don't see it happening. Any thoughts?

As I recall, Gibbs was recruited more as a PG than a SG and there were murmors about him being upset about the signing of Meech (understandable with hindsight). Now if Vil does not redshirt, either the writing's on the wall or Gibbs will suprise a lot of us. I hope for the latter. Could Gibbs be our outside shooter we need?

GO ZAGS!!!