PDA

View Full Version : Zags will give up 57 in first half



FuManShoes
03-24-2009, 08:14 PM
Says so right here
http://www.betus.com/sports-betting/march-madness/betting-trends/gonzaga-bulldogs-vs-north-carolina-tar-heels-simulation-game/

ZagManFan
03-24-2009, 08:16 PM
hahahaha. UNC shoots 62%. I don't think so. Got to love simulations.

FuManShoes
03-24-2009, 08:21 PM
Better results here. Zags light up Heels.
http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/boxscore.asp?GameID=1358921&nomenu=1

Nevtelen
03-24-2009, 08:36 PM
Says so right here
http://www.betus.com/sports-betting/march-madness/betting-trends/gonzaga-bulldogs-vs-north-carolina-tar-heels-simulation-game/

The really dumb thing about that article is that I don't really get how it's a simulation. It just looks like something somebody wrote with no real info behind it. I mean, I can write that GU wins the game because Lawson gives up 10 TOs in the first 2 mins and the Heels shoot 8% from the floor, but there's nothing to back that up either. Perhaps I'm missing something? Or is that article as rediculous as it looks?

ZagLawGrad
03-24-2009, 08:43 PM
57 is fine with me----so long as the Zags are within striking distance going into the half. GU has done a good job of adjusting for the second half for the most part.

FuManShoes
03-24-2009, 08:43 PM
I think this explains the simulation:


The WCC champs have been awful in the NCAA Tournament of late, as they are 0-4 ATS in the L/3 tournaments.

Baldwinzag
03-25-2009, 06:18 AM
In all seriousness, I could see UNC racing out to a double-digit lead early on, but we are just too skilled, have too good of shooters, and talented to let it last long. If the past is any indication, the Zags have a statistically significant tendency to start slow in big games and be down by 10+ points by the first TV timeout. Just look at the track record: UConn ('07, '08), Memphis ('06, '07), @Tennessee ('09), UNC ('06), Michigan St. ('05) the list goes on. In each of these games, we were down at least 10 at some point in the game, but in every game, we made a come back and in most cases, we won. I have a feeling this UNC team won't be as forgiving as last time, but never fear with this particular Zag team. If we stay out of foul trouble, we'll be in it 'til the end, win or lose. That said, IF Heytvelt or Daye pick up cheap fouls in the first few mins, we're toast. As much as we want them to have monster games in terms of point totals, I just want them to stay on the floor.

zagsfan21
03-25-2009, 06:52 AM
Better results here. Zags light up Heels.
http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/boxscore.asp?GameID=1358921&nomenu=1

Just did 10 sims at WhatIf with our actual depth chart, and it came out Zags 6, UNC 4. One sim we won 95-69. Let's just take that and move on.:D

lothar98zag
03-25-2009, 10:53 AM
In all seriousness, I could see UNC racing out to a double-digit lead early on, but we are just too skilled, have too good of shooters, and talented to let it last long. If the past is any indication, the Zags have a statistically significant tendency to start slow in big games and be down by 10+ points by the first TV timeout. Just look at the track record: UConn ('07, '08), Memphis ('06, '07), @Tennessee ('09), UNC ('06), Michigan St. ('05) the list goes on. In each of these games, we were down at least 10 at some point in the game, but in every game, we made a come back and in most cases, we won. I have a feeling this UNC team won't be as forgiving as last time, but never fear with this particular Zag team. If we stay out of foul trouble, we'll be in it 'til the end, win or lose. That said, IF Heytvelt or Daye pick up cheap fouls in the first few mins, we're toast. As much as we want them to have monster games in terms of point totals, I just want them to stay on the floor.
very good post.

A 10 point lead (either way) does not mean the game is over. But too many fouls on JH &/or AD, may mean the game is virtually over. I hope we don't have to find out if GU can survive front court foul trouble...

UberZagFan
03-25-2009, 11:02 AM
I hope we don't have to find out if GU can survive front court foul trouble...

Uber agrees.