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The old saying has always been that the only way to beat Roy's running Heels is to "slow the game down" and "try to ugly it up".
The results do not bear this out.
In the last three years, North Carolina has lost 14 times. The mean score for the winner is 85.9 ppg. The median score for the winner is 84.5 ppg. That means that half of all the teams that have beaten UNC in the last three years have scored 85 points or better.
Here are the results of the winning teams:
73, 81, 82, 82, 82, 83, 84, 84, 85, 88, 89, 92, 94, 96
Out of fourteen teams that beat UNC, thirteen (93%) scored at least 81 points to do it. In fact the only true outlier was the last game, in which Florida State scored 73 in a win. The top margin is 96 scored by Wake Forest.
All of these losses came as teams that were awarded #1 seeds, so they were not bad teams at all.
What does this mean? It doesn't mean UNC isn't good; the record obviously does not bear that out. What it does mean is that if you want to beat North Carolina, you're going to have to go against "conventional wisdom" and instead of slowing the game down, run with them and attack like crazy, exactly like KU did last year.
My explanation for this? I think when North Carolina plays fast they get lulled into not playing defense and just try to outscore you, because that's what they are used to. When they are forced to play slow, they are forced to play defense, and their obvious athleticism and offensive talent advantage eventually wins out over the course of forty minutes. Think of last year, when UNC pounded a good but painfully slow Washington State team 65-45, or how badly Roy owns Izzo since he's been at North Carolina.
It was something I suspected and a quick look at the results bear it out. I think if UNC loses during the Tournament, it will come once again with a team that runs with them. If UNC loses early, I think it may be to Gonzaga.
The results do not bear this out.
In the last three years, North Carolina has lost 14 times. The mean score for the winner is 85.9 ppg. The median score for the winner is 84.5 ppg. That means that half of all the teams that have beaten UNC in the last three years have scored 85 points or better.
Here are the results of the winning teams:
73, 81, 82, 82, 82, 83, 84, 84, 85, 88, 89, 92, 94, 96
Out of fourteen teams that beat UNC, thirteen (93%) scored at least 81 points to do it. In fact the only true outlier was the last game, in which Florida State scored 73 in a win. The top margin is 96 scored by Wake Forest.
All of these losses came as teams that were awarded #1 seeds, so they were not bad teams at all.
What does this mean? It doesn't mean UNC isn't good; the record obviously does not bear that out. What it does mean is that if you want to beat North Carolina, you're going to have to go against "conventional wisdom" and instead of slowing the game down, run with them and attack like crazy, exactly like KU did last year.
My explanation for this? I think when North Carolina plays fast they get lulled into not playing defense and just try to outscore you, because that's what they are used to. When they are forced to play slow, they are forced to play defense, and their obvious athleticism and offensive talent advantage eventually wins out over the course of forty minutes. Think of last year, when UNC pounded a good but painfully slow Washington State team 65-45, or how badly Roy owns Izzo since he's been at North Carolina.
It was something I suspected and a quick look at the results bear it out. I think if UNC loses during the Tournament, it will come once again with a team that runs with them. If UNC loses early, I think it may be to Gonzaga.
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