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View Full Version : Pomeroy Ratings as a predictor; solid track record



Pleasant Peninsula
03-17-2009, 12:43 PM
As for Pomeroy Ratings. Gonzaga is currently #5. They are the only team in the nation to be in the top ten for both offensive and defensive efficiency.

2008 Sweet 16. Kenpom had 13 of the 16 in his top 20 teams.
2008 Elite 8. Kenpom had 6 of the 8 in his top 10 teams.
2008 Final 4. Kenpom had 4 of 4 in his top 6 teams.

2007 Sweet 16. Kenpom had 10 of the 16 in his top 20 teams.
2007 Elite 8. Kenpom had 7 of the 8 in his top 10 teams.
2007 Final 4. Kenpom had 4 of the 4 in his top 6 teams.

2006 Sweet 16. Kenpom had 11 of the 16 in his top 20 teams.
2006 Elite 8. Kenpom had 7 of the 8 in his top 10 teams.
2006 Final 4. Kenpom had 2 of the 4 in his top 6 teams.

2005 Sweet 16. Kenpom had 12 of the 16 in his top 20 teams.
2005 Elite 8. Kenpom had 5 of the 8 in his top 10 teams.
2005 Final 4. Kenpom had 4 of the 4 in his top 10 teams.

2004 Sweet 16. Kenpom had 12 of the 16 in his top 20 teams.
2004 Elite 8. Kenpom had 5 of the 8 in his top 10 teams.
2004 Final 4. Kenpom had 3 of the 4 in his top 10 teams.

BobZag
03-17-2009, 12:48 PM
And he has Gonzaga at #5, right?

gozagswoohoo
03-17-2009, 12:50 PM
HILARIOUS!!! One of my buddies just sent me a text message about Mizzou being better than the zags, and he said, "Did you know Mizzou is one of the only teams in the country to be in the Top 20 for offensive and defensive efficiency?"


WOOHOO!!! It felt great to text back that we're the ONLY team in the country in the Top 10 for both!! He writes back...."Really?? Oh..."


hahahaha

JLGutrocks
03-17-2009, 01:44 PM
Anyone got brackets filled out based on KenPom/Sagarin?

tightface
03-17-2009, 03:08 PM
Nice research, PP.

Pleasant Peninsula
03-17-2009, 03:42 PM
Anyone got brackets filled out based on KenPom/Sagarin?

I used Pomeroy heavily for my bracket, but I defied his rankings a few times. For instance, I have Gonzaga over North Carolina (S16) and Gonzaga over Louisville (Championship game). http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/images/smilies/smile.gif

This (http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=601) has a chart of the odds of each team advancing in each round based on Pomeroy's numbers. Only the East and Midwest regions were posted today, however, with the South and the West coming tomorrow.

johnwzag
03-17-2009, 03:47 PM
Anyone got brackets filled out based on KenPom/Sagarin?

I laid out a rough bracket and posted the hard ones for people to laugh at me.

I plan on using Kenpon some.

I look at big wins and loses for the second half of the year first.
Then PF / Against
Then Kenpom and Sagarin last.

I did pretty good last year, but since I went with Gonzaga over Davidson, I was way off from the top.

GamblingZag
03-17-2009, 04:40 PM
Anyone got brackets filled out based on KenPom/Sagarin?

Yeah, scroll down to the log5 predictions about halfway down the page. I think those are KenPom numbers:

http://am19psu.blogspot.com/