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View Full Version : UCLA loses...3-Seed for GU?



MotoZag
03-13-2009, 09:44 PM
Unless UCLA pulls out a miracle, they are going to lose and get bumped down a couple spots by a barely NIT-worthy USC team. UCLA is currently in front of us on Lunardi's bracket, which would put them behind us now. Washington also lost tonight, but I don't think Lunardi will have them fall beyond us judging by his favoritism. We could be looking at a very plausible 3-seed tomorrow.

On a minor note, Collison is a wash. He hasn't proven anything this year and I bet he's a late lottery pick if at all.

dawgfather11
03-13-2009, 09:47 PM
10% chance of GU getting a 3 seed if not less. 4 seed is getting close to being a lock for you guy's though.

zagfan07
03-13-2009, 09:51 PM
"Any UCLA fan is thinking one thing...Gonzaga" OH MAN THAT KILLS ME TO HEAR THAT!!!!!!

Just heard that from the announcers...

UCLA down by 6 with 1:30 left

Baldwinzag
03-13-2009, 09:55 PM
"Any UCLA fan is thinking one thing...Gonzaga"

Excuse my ignorance, yet not sure I follow this statement...what are they referring to? :confused:

MotoZag
03-13-2009, 09:56 PM
10% chance of GU getting a 3 seed if not less. 4 seed is getting close to being a lock for you guy's though.

I appreciate your ignorance.

UCLA vs USC
:22 left
64-55 USC
Not gonna happen Bruins.

zagfan07
03-13-2009, 09:57 PM
I hate to bring it up, but UCLA was making a come back.

Does that jog your memory?

MotoZag
03-13-2009, 09:59 PM
Excuse my ignorance, yet not sure I follow this statement...what are they referring to? :confused:

I don't enjoy linking to this, but read the game recap.

March 23, 2006
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=264000014

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y51/kellienger/crying2.jpg

Baldwinzag
03-13-2009, 10:01 PM
I don't enjoy linking to this, but read the game recap.

March 23, 2006
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=264000014

Thanks, but no thanks.;)

MDABE80
03-13-2009, 10:01 PM
GU= solid 4 right now. UW= Solid 4 right now...not sure if the 8 losses will change some minds. Usually BCS champs are favored though. Not sure where UCLA will land.....3 straight FF's. I think they'll get a 4 or 5 seed. ASU might pull into a 3/4 if they win the Pac 10 tourney. It's gettin ginteresting now with UW and UCLA beat.

dawgfather11
03-13-2009, 10:30 PM
I appreciate your ignorance.

UCLA vs USC
:22 left
64-55 USC
Not gonna happen Bruins.

if by ignorance you meant the truth then your welcome.

UW 4 West
GU 4 Eastcoast
UCLA 5 Midwest

that would be my guess as of now.

MDABE80
03-13-2009, 10:53 PM
Oh noooooooo....we stay in some odd bracket but we go to portland or boise. No big time changes for the zags!!! Seedings are about right though.

committee is watching these games......bet on that. Venoying didn't help the cause tonight joe.

Reborn
03-13-2009, 11:17 PM
Right Now in Lunardi's Brackets:

#3 seeds: UW, Villanova, Oklahoma, Wake Forest. They all lost.
#4 seeds: Gonzaga, UCLA, Xavier, Missouri, UClA and Xavier lost.
#2 seed Kansas lost. The other 3: Memphis, Duke, Michigan St won.

Here is my take: Villanova goes to the #2. Kansas falls to a #3. UW and Wake Forest move to a #4 seed. Gonzaga and Missiouri move to #3 seeds.

Florida St who is now a #5 will take Xavier's or UCLA's place at the #4

Pleasant Peninsula
03-13-2009, 11:20 PM
Why would Villanova move up after losing, Reborn? And you have to consider a team, like Syracuse, that could be flying up to a 3/4 seed if they win tomorrow.

brian_sun
03-14-2009, 12:16 AM
Right Now in Lunardi's Brackets:

#3 seeds: UW, Villanova, Oklahoma, Wake Forest. They all lost.
#4 seeds: Gonzaga, UCLA, Xavier, Missouri, UClA and Xavier lost.
#2 seed Kansas lost. The other 3: Memphis, Duke, Michigan St won.

Here is my take: Villanova goes to the #2. Kansas falls to a #3. UW and Wake Forest move to a #4 seed. Gonzaga and Missiouri move to #3 seeds.

Florida St who is now a #5 will take Xavier's or UCLA's place at the #4

I disagree, here is what I think will happen:
#1 seeds: Pitt, UNC, Memphis, Louisville
#2 seeds: Duke, Michigan State, UConn, Missouri (if they win big 12)
#3 seeds: Oklahoma, Kansas, Wake, Nova (lost to Louisville actually helped RPI)
#4 seeds: UW, Gonzaga, ASU(if they win Pac 10 tourney), Illinois

Gonzaga moves up to the best 4 seed line, but to move up to 3, Missouri WILL have to lose to Baylor in the Big 12 tourney final. Oklahoma does not drop below Gonzaga because its 5 losses in the Big 12 is better than GU 5 losses in WCC. Kansas dropped from 2 to 3, not 2 to 4. Wake's 6 losses in ACC is better than 5 losses in WCC. Nova was 3 before the Louisville game. Losing to Louisville in the semi does NOT hurt Nova's RPI. 7 losses in Big East is not worse than 5 losses in WCC. As things stand now, the ONLY chance GU moves up to 3 is if Missouri loses in the Big 12 tourney final against Baylor.

TM27
03-14-2009, 12:20 AM
Oklahoma does not drop below Gonzaga because its 5 losses in the Big 12 is better than GU 5 losses in WCC.

Hmm interesting analysis what were Gonzaga's 5 losses in the WCC? I'll give a grand if you can name one loss in the WCC ;)

WallaWallaZag
03-14-2009, 03:06 AM
Oklahoma does not drop below Gonzaga because its 5 losses in the Big 12 is better than GU 5 losses in WCC. Wake's 6 losses in ACC is better than 5 losses in WCC. Nova was 3 before the Louisville game. Losing to Louisville in the semi does NOT hurt Nova's RPI. 7 losses in Big East is not worse than 5 losses in WCC. As things stand now, the ONLY chance GU moves up to 3 is if Missouri loses in the Big 12 tourney final against Baylor.

i'm not sure what's more annoying: uw troll coming here to try and stir up trouble or a uw troll coming here trying to have an intelligent debate but having no intelligence...hmmmnnn, uw troll with no intelligence...is that redundant? :D

back on topic...probably 2 things keeping zags from moving up...the bad loss to portland state and getting spanked at home by memphis on national tv with everyone watching, including the selection committee. lose to memphis by single digits or swap out psu loss to say a split with the vols and we would be good to go...

on another note, it'll be interesting how far asu moves up if they can win the pac-10 tourney. they've probably passed ucla, but what about us and uw?

if purdue or illinois wins the big 10, i think they get a 3 seed...definitely florida state with the acc...since they both lost, wonder who lunardi had as the higher 3 seed, wake or uw?

TexasZagFan
03-14-2009, 04:04 AM
Wake's 6 losses in ACC is better than 5 losses in WCC.

Comments like that easily explain the red rep squares...:lmao:

23dpg
03-14-2009, 06:59 AM
I agree with Dawgfather. I think there is a very small chance we get a #3 seed. I think 4 is probably where we end up but I also thing a #5 seed isn't out of the question. Of course I want a 3, but I just don't think the committee is going to hand us one. There are teams moving down, but also teams moving up.

cbbfanatic
03-14-2009, 07:24 AM
no chance gonzaga gets a 3. the resume just isnt there

i think zag fans should be extremely happy with a 4/5, to be honest. wins vs tenn(x2) and ok st look good in the computers right now, but 1) thats about it and 2) i think the humans on the committee will probably value those wins less than the rpi does.

cbbfanatic
03-14-2009, 07:27 AM
Comments like that easily explain the red rep squares...:lmao:

would you debate the truth of it though? would anyone?

i mean, i know wake has at least one specific questionable acc loss (GT), but in general... a team with 5 losses playing a wcc sched hasnt earned what a team with 6 losses in the acc has.

EngineerZag
03-14-2009, 07:33 AM
I don't think we'll get a 3. A 4 is looking more and more solid though and the protection that comes with it. :)

azzagfan
03-14-2009, 07:33 AM
brian_sun,
To help clarify all the contempt for your statement about 5 losses in the WCC, here are the Zags' losses:
- Arizona (probably an NIT team, but not in WCC)
- Connecticut (pretty good, you may have heard that though)
- Utah (NCAA team)
- Portland State (not a good loss, but they are in the NCAA)
- Memphis (you may have heard they're pretty good too, they just won their 30th game last night).

Wake Forest's losses:
- Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, NC State, Duke and Maryland

Oklahoma's losses:
- Arkansas, Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State

I think the argument should be about quality wins, not about losses. The losses are competitive across the group.

Also, the fact that the Pac-10 champs had more WCC losses than the Zags did gives certain people on this board a lot of joy.

MDABE80
03-14-2009, 08:02 AM
Doesn't matter now. Let's get that 4 seed and do the best we can with it.

Season's winding down/up depending how we look at it. If we get a 3 fine...a 4 is more likely. It's over as of today. Lots of losses for the big programs. Doesn't mean we'll move up. Doesn't mean we merit a move. It means that in 24 hrs we best be ready. We've done all we can. WCC losses aren't the same as WCC losses. Big deal. That's the easy part.

Go Zags. I hope our kids play like they did last week and there's no rust.

dpouley
03-14-2009, 08:09 AM
I think people are looking at Bracketology too much to determine where GU will end up. Look at their resume.

RPI: 28
SOS: 91
Ranking: 12 in both: polls
Record vs. top 50 RPI: 6-3
Bad Losses: Portland State at home a over 100 RPI, but a tourney team
Record against top 25 (rankings): 0-2
Conference Champion: WCC = 15 ranked conference in RPI
Overall record: 25-5

Now, with all of that I think that it would not be an impossibility for the Bulldogs to get a 3 seed, but I think that a 4 is much more likely. The things going against the Bulldogs: RPI, SOS and Conference RPI. The things going very much for them: Wins against top 50 RPI, no real bad losses.

With all of those other teams losing...it may just end up that those losses cancel each other out and those teams remain on the same curve they were already on.

RenoZag
03-14-2009, 08:11 AM
WCC losses aren't the same as WCC losses. Big deal. That's the easy part.




:confused:

NEC26
03-14-2009, 08:21 AM
dpouley our win against Oke St. was a top 25 win according to realtime rpi they are currently ranked 18.

dpouley
03-14-2009, 08:29 AM
dpouley our win against Oke St. was a top 25 win according to realtime rpi they are currently ranked 18.

Top 25 ranking based on Coaches and AP polls.

I included the OSU win in the 6-3 against the top 50 RPI.

6 wins= SMC x3, Tenn x2 and OSU

NEC26
03-14-2009, 08:40 AM
Pretty sure they don't use polls when seeding teams.

23dpg
03-14-2009, 08:42 AM
I think there should be an eyeball test. To me, Memphis is a #1 seed but I doubt they get it. They are one of the 4 best teams in the NCAA right now. That's an arguable point, but its how I see it.

I use the UNLV analogy from the early 90s. I don't have any facts regarding what their RPI was, but I doubt it was very good due to their conference affiliation at the time. (WAC back then?) There was no doubt they were the best team in the nation, but the numbers probably didn't support it. That's why you sometimes have to look outside the numbers.

My #1s.
NC, Memphis, L-Ville, and Pitt. UConn, a very deserving team, will probably get the #1, or MSU.

drogba11
03-14-2009, 08:45 AM
Hate to break it to ya, but UCLA was never a 3 seed and they never were a 4 seed. Maybe if they actually won the pac10 championship.

dpouley
03-14-2009, 08:51 AM
Pretty sure they don't use polls when seeding teams.

Pretty sure they look at the entire package.

But lets assume they don't, you have spent two posts trying to correct me on something that had very little to do with my entire summary. Care to comment on the rest?

NEC26
03-14-2009, 09:00 AM
There is nothing wrong with that resume so why do I need to defend it? Just pointing out that you had their record against top 25 rpi teams wrong. If your talking polls then its irrelevant they don't use them.

Edited to add: Tennessee also has an rpi of 24 so make that 2 top 25 wins

gamagin
03-14-2009, 09:24 AM
the only real pundit left on the planet weighs in . . . . John Stewart

johnwzag
03-14-2009, 09:45 AM
Current math on the 3 and 4 seeds...

Washington. Kenpon 15 Sagarin 20 RPI 14 SOS 17
Villanova Kenpon 19 Sagarin 15 RPI 13 SOS 28
Wake Kenpon 20 Sagarin 12 RPI 15 SOS 55
Oklahoma Kenpon 17 Sagarin 9 RPI 5 SOS 21


Missouri Kenpon 10 Sagarin 10 RPI 10 SOS 40
Xavier Kenpon 24 Sagarin 24 RPI 16 SOS 48
UCLA Kenpon 9 Sagarin 17 RPI 32 SOS 60
Gonzaga Kenpon 4 Sagarin 8 RPI 26 SOS 92

By Kenpon and Sagarin math we would be the highest 3 seed, according to RPI and SOS which will be considered, we are at the bottom of the list.

My heart says 3 seed. My head says 4 or 5 seed. If Maryland can beat Duke (which I doubt) I am not sure where that would put us in RPI and SOS . It would probably lock us at the 4. 4 is not bad.

dawgfather11
03-14-2009, 09:50 AM
looks like I was pretty dead on, although lunardi still has UCLA as a 4, but I think ASU could jump them if they win the pac-10 or Florida state beating UNC.

Anyway's if you look at the s curve zags are locked into the 3rd 4 seed. They won't get a 3 seed because they are behind UW first #4 and Missouri last #3. If missouri loses UW might move up and get the last 3 but that's all the movement you might see. GU cannot pass UW on the s curve.

brian_sun
03-14-2009, 10:01 AM
Hmm interesting analysis what were Gonzaga's 5 losses in the WCC? I'll give a grand if you can name one loss in the WCC ;)

I should probably reword my statement: having X number of losses PLAYING in the ACC or Big East (or other power conferences) is better than having 5 losses playing in the WCC. Of course I know GU did not drop any game in the WCC this year. So Wake lost 6 games playing in the ACC, would Gonzaga fare better playing in the ACC? We know GU's SOS is 92 and they have 5 losses. We know Wake's SOS is 55 and they have 6 losses. We know Wake has a RPI in the 15 range, we know GU has an RPI in the 25 -30 range. Which one is better? When looking at the overall profile, I think I'd pick Wake over GU at this point.

23dpg
03-14-2009, 10:21 AM
looks like I was pretty dead on, although lunardi still has UCLA as a 4, but I think ASU could jump them if they win the pac-10 or Florida state beating UNC.

Anyway's if you look at the s curve zags are locked into the 3rd 4 seed. They won't get a 3 seed because they are behind UW first #4 and Missouri last #3. If missouri loses UW might move up and get the last 3 but that's all the movement you might see. GU cannot pass UW on the s curve.

I agree with almost everything you write except the first sentence and the lock at number #4. I think we have a 70% chance for a 4, 25% for a 5 and 5% for a 3. We won't know anything for sure until Sunday.

TM27
03-14-2009, 10:28 AM
I should probably reword my statement.

I understood... I was teasing.

On another note....year in year out Lunardi is good at picking the 5-6 at-large spots among the possible 10 teams. But he has been historically bad at seeding and pods (which is understandable). It was either last year or 2007 but I remember reading that he was 16/65 on seeding and 24/65 on pods or something close to that. Point being, if trends hold true...you can take the current seeding and pods and throw them out the window.

We know GU is in... they will be seeded from a 3-7 and they will play somewhere in the US.

Nevtelen
03-14-2009, 10:34 AM
I think people are looking at Bracketology too much to determine where GU will end up. Look at their resume.

RPI: 28
SOS: 91
Ranking: 12 in both: polls
Record vs. top 50 RPI: 6-3
Bad Losses: Portland State at home a over 100 RPI, but a tourney team
Record against top 25 (rankings): 0-2
Conference Champion: WCC = 15 ranked conference in RPI
Overall record: 25-5

Now, with all of that I think that it would not be an impossibility for the Bulldogs to get a 3 seed, but I think that a 4 is much more likely. The things going against the Bulldogs: RPI, SOS and Conference RPI. The things going very much for them: Wins against top 50 RPI, no real bad losses.

With all of those other teams losing...it may just end up that those losses cancel each other out and those teams remain on the same curve they were already on.

The only thing I would disagree with is that the committee, in the past, has shown that it generally takes into account those things you can control much more than those things that you can't; i.e. GU's Conf RPI (esp) and SOS won't be held against them since they can't control that. Their non-conf SOS (which was pretty good) will be taken into account more heavily.

Also, I'd imagine the Terps will be in the Top 50 RPI after they play Duke today, win or loose.

CDC84
03-14-2009, 11:29 AM
UCLA has no business being a 4. None. They are 5-6 vs. the RPI top 50. Their best non-league win is vs. Notre Dame at home (77), and they only have three road/neutral wins vs. the RPI top 100. They're also only 1-4 vs. UW and ASU...the top 2 teams in the Pac 10.

BTW - If USC beats ASU this afternoon, Gonzaga could end up having a better overall record (winning % and overall wins) versus the RPI top 50 than any Pac 10 school. If Maryland moves into the RPI top 50 after today, the Zags will have 6 top 50 RPI wins on road or neutral floors. That being said, I just don't think they're going to get a 3. It's looking more like a 4.

What's irritating about all this is that Gonzaga would be in line for a 3seed if Daye's tip in had gone in at Utah (12 in the RPI), or if AJ Price hadn't hit that miracle three pointer for UConn (6 in the RPI).

bigblahla
03-14-2009, 11:39 AM
What I think we deserve compared to what I think we will actually get isn't even being discussed in this thread.

I just don't think our Zags will be held in as high of esteem by the crude dudes of gloom and doom selection committee as we hold them or think they should be.

Doesn't matter any way just as others have said on this board it's one game at a time and you must beat your opponent to move forward.

We deserve to stay in the West and I'll leave it at that.

Focus & Energy for six games, one game at a time!

Go!! Zags!!!

MotoZag
03-14-2009, 12:56 PM
After watching all of 1 seed potentials' games this week, I'm not scared by any of them. They all have been exposed in their conference tourneys, with the exception of Louisville and distantly-chanced Duke, which both have games pending. They all were beaten by inferior teams.

Pitt's achilles will be Blair in foul trouble. They simply can't hang without this guy on the floor.

UCONN isn't the same team without Dyson and the pressure on Price to perform is surmounting, but he's still doing a decent job.

Memphis is on a great streak, but aside from their win against us, they aren't really impressive when looking at their record. Their win streak is as awe-inspiring as our run through the WCC, which is pretty much expected by us and them. I'll root for them anytime we're not playing on the same hardwood, but look at their record. 8 of their 14 top 100 RPI wins were against teams that are in the 80-100 echelon. They've lost to good teams so long ago that everyone has forgotten about it. I think they are farther away from a 1 seed than people think.

North Carolina is going to take a game or two for Lawson to tune back up. They will be very fragile this time and could see a possible second round exit if they aren't careful.

Louisville's success is not "true" success because they don't play every team in the Big East evenly, thus not necessarily deserving of a regular season title. With 'Cuse being on fire, I am going to be rooting against Louisville tonight. These guys lost to the likes of Minnesota, W. Kentucky, UNLV (at home), and Notre Dame and they are in the mix for a 1 seed still supposedly. That's like us losing 2 or 3 games to Portland State like teams. They are credited with wins against a Jamesless Marquette and an at-the-time slumping Syracuse team.

With all that said, I still don't think we'll get the respect we deserve and will land a 4 seed or a distant 3 if the committee eats their wheaties.

bartruff1
03-14-2009, 03:07 PM
It could happen after what has gone down this weekend...

krozman
03-14-2009, 04:11 PM
i'm still expecting a 7 until proven otherwise.

i've been burned before