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outrunu
03-13-2009, 06:03 PM
http://kenpom.com/rate.php
Memphis, NC, UConn, Gonzaga. Sunday is going to be very interesting.

johnwzag
03-13-2009, 06:38 PM
RPI Rank: 28 also

A Historical prespective
2009 #4 (today)
2008 #30 Kenpom - Davidson was #20 - Georgetown was a 6
2007 #55
2006 #41
2005 #16
2004 #10
2003 #36
2002 #27
2001 #46
2000 #25
1999 #16

dnj116
03-13-2009, 06:39 PM
ummmm, I couldn't understand the abreviations for the first 5 or so columns...I'm just going to trust that the numbers add up for us.

Baldwinzag
03-13-2009, 07:09 PM
Does anyone know if the Selection Committee utilizes Kenpom ratings for their evaluations? The only known metric I know used by the committee is RPI ratings, yet Kenpom seems to involve a detailed analytical process to derive their rankings. It'd be helpful, especially for GU.

Kenpom Ratings explained. (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/ratings_explanation/)

spudzag
03-13-2009, 07:17 PM
As much as I'd love to see it, Kenpom is using some fuzzy math to get us to four. :confused:

Pleasant Peninsula
03-13-2009, 07:33 PM
Does anyone know if the Selection Committee utilizes Kenpom ratings for their evaluations?

It's my understanding that the committee uses a number of different statistical models, such as Sagarin, etc. I don't know for certain that they use Pomeroy's, but I would imagine they do, since it is one of the most sophisticated of the models and has such a good track record as a predictive tool. But again, the committee doesn't rely heavily on any one stat or criteria to make their selections, including RPI.


As much as I'd love to see it, Kenpom is using some fuzzy math to get us to four.

It's the same math that he's been using for years. Math that has proven VERY effective as a predictive tool, as I mentioned earlier. For instance, he had Kansas pegged as #1 prior to the tourney last year. And for something like the last eight years or so, every team that has made the final four have come from the KenPom top 20...including George Mason, who was ranked pretty high by him in 2006.

Baldwinzag
03-13-2009, 07:43 PM
Well, if they use Sagarin ratings we're currently ranked #10. Good news of us.:D

So, we're #10 in Sagarin, #4 in Kenpom, and #28 in RPI. Based on the mathmatical tools alone, if we're any lower than a 4-seed it'd be considered another slight to the Zags. I'm OK with it, as long as we play with a chip on our shoulder and something to prove like we did in Vegas.

johnwzag
03-13-2009, 08:20 PM
A Historical prespective

A lot depends on who we have to play. It would take a lot to add ratings of teams we played ratings. I am too tired for that..

2009 Kenpom #4 Sagarin #10
2008 Kenpom #30 Sagarin #29 - Out round 1
2007 Kenpom #55 Sagarin #53 - Out Round 1
2006 Kenpom #41 Sagarin #16 - Round 1,2 wins
2005 Kenpom #16 Sagarin #24 - Round 1 win
2004 Kenpom #10 Sagarin #8 - Round 1 win
2003 Kenpom #36 Sagarin #37 - Round 1 win
2002 Kenpom #27 Sagarin #15 - Out Round 1
2001 Kenpom #46 Sagarin #42 - Round 1, 2 wins
2000 Kenpom #25 Sagarin #27 - Round 1, 2 wins
1999 Kenpom #16 Sagarin #18 - Round 1, 2, 3 wins.

What can I determin about this? Absolutely nothing except we have achieved our highest rating with Kenpom and... I hope we don't have to play any of these teams in the first or second rounds...

North Carolina, Pittsburg, Connecticut, Duke, Memphis, Oklahoma, Loisville, Michigan State.
I also would not want to play Syracuse as good as they have been playing.

We can beat any of those teams with a lot of tough play...
I am just hoping it is in E-8, F-4, or championship games.

I think we have a shot at a 3 seed.

FuManShoes
03-13-2009, 08:21 PM
Since the St. Mary's thrashing, the Zags' offense has peaked while the defense slipped, so to speak. Just after the WCC championship game, the Zags were the only team in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (6th and 10th, respectively). Now they have soared to 5th best O and dropped to 12th best D. Ominous, because teams in Pomeroy's defensive top 10 seem to win titles.

ZagLawGrad
03-13-2009, 08:29 PM
RPI Rank: 28 also

A Historical prespective
2009 #4 (today)
2008 #30 Kenpom - Davidson was #20 - Georgetown was a 6
2007 #55
2006 #41
2005 #16
2004 #10
2003 #36
2002 #27
2001 #46
2000 #25
1999 #16

Good info, JZ

johnwzag
03-13-2009, 08:36 PM
Since the St. Mary's thrashing, the Zags' offense has peaked while the defense slipped, so to speak. Just after the WCC championship game, the Zags were the only team in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (6th and 10th, respectively). Now they have soared to 5th best O and dropped to 12th best D. Ominous, because teams in Pomeroy's defensive top 10 seem to win titles.

I don't think our D really took that much of a drop in reality. The last couple of games, we did let it slip-but we also ran up the score and don't forget we also played our bench players. Sorenson had double figure points, ect. If we were in close games, we would have done something else. Cannot blame the kids for having fun. I think they will take the tourney more serious.

Like Mark Few says.... It also takes a lot of luck too for a deep run.

Even if we are playing your best, it is still a crap shoot. Who will we be paired with and are they peaking, even or declining? No one is really going to know the answers to those question. We could run into a team that has been slacking all year and then decides to be serious in the tourney.

FuManShoes
03-13-2009, 08:50 PM
I was kidding more or less. The Zags couldn't control anything after the WCC Tourney domination. Are the Zags really any better or worse than they were on Monday? No. So it's funny to see their rankings move based on what others are doing and to think/hope that plays into their favor come selection Sunday.

mgadfly
03-13-2009, 09:24 PM
And for something like the last eight years or so, every team that has made the final four have come from the KenPom top 20...including George Mason, who was ranked pretty high by him in 2006.

George Mason was #23, but I agree with your point. The next worst team in the past few years was LSU, which was #10. I really like that GU is in the top 5 or so.

mgadfly
03-13-2009, 09:32 PM
As much as I'd love to see it, Kenpom is using some fuzzy math to get us to four. :confused:


No fuzzy math, GU has a very good offense and very good defense this year. Anything can happen in a single game and the Zags will need some luck, but this is our best team and our best chance to make a deep run in the tourney.