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View Full Version : OT: Does St. Mary's Dance?



former1dog
03-09-2009, 09:31 PM
I've been saying since Mills went down with injury that St. Mary's did not have a chance to dance this season without a WCC tourney win and that is still my opinion. It seems that the analysts generally disagree with me.

What does the GU Boards crowd think?

fedwayzag
03-09-2009, 09:34 PM
While I would like to see them dance, I do not think they will. The game was nationally televised and they do not put in a good showing. I think the committee will mostly remember this game not what they do against ewu friday.

MedZag
03-09-2009, 09:34 PM
I truly, honestly think this is 50/50 right now. IMHO they deserve to dance right now. No way they aren't one of the top 65 teams in the nation. But I could also envision just enough bubbles popping in the next 5 days for them to be out in the cold.

I think they're in as of right now, but honestly I think it depends on how many at larges get gobbled up.

Strike me up as the minority who think the EWU game is looking pretty sharp of Bennett right now. Even though it will be a rout, it will keep St Mary's in the convo through friday night which can do a lot.

23dpg
03-09-2009, 09:35 PM
I want them to make it. I'm not sure if they will now.

lothar98zag
03-09-2009, 09:36 PM
I truly, honestly think this is 50/50 right now. IMHO they deserve to dance right now. No way they aren't one of the top 65 teams in the nation. But I could also envision just enough bubbles popping in the next 5 days for them to be out in the cold.

I think they're in as of right now, but honestly I think it depends on how many at larges get gobbled up.

Strike me up as the minority who think the EWU game is looking pretty sharp of Bennett right now. Even though it will be a rout, it will keep St Mary's in the convo through friday night which can do a lot.
agree w/ med, but I think the odds are a bit better than 50/50. now if Mills doesn't have noticably better stats against EWU, it may be NIT for them...

Nevtelen
03-09-2009, 09:51 PM
My gut says yes, my head says no. Tough call - basically they have to root against anything crazy happening in the BCS tourneys this week (as well as mid-major tourneys like the A-10 and Horizon). They're probably in as of right now, but they'll have to sweat out the week and root against teams like Zona, Ok St, Florida, Penn St, etc. If enough of these teams loose, they're in. If most of them play their way in, they're in trouble.

I'm with MedZag on the EWU game now - Bennett is looking smart for this at the moment. Mills will have to really play well in that game (EWU does have one good player, IIRC, DeLeon) - especially shoot well IMO - but it'll keep SMC in the conversation nationally since pundits will be checking in interested to see what happens and it'll also give the Gaels something to do in a week they'll probably be stressed enough. I bet they'll put a shellacking on EWU.

ZagNut08
03-09-2009, 09:56 PM
I hope they do, but one could easily make the argument against them (sos = 170)

GPGUgrad
03-09-2009, 09:59 PM
After tonight's game I have my doubts.

but, will stay optimistic and hope that they do make it.

Salsageek
03-09-2009, 10:00 PM
I hope they do. Makes us look good and great for the conference.

Crusader Rick
03-09-2009, 10:05 PM
While it might look saavy to schedule another game like SMC did, I think it is just making a farce of the process.

I hope Eastern plays their game of the year and beats them, and then the Cougs kill them in the NITs.

sittingon50
03-09-2009, 11:16 PM
I'm surprised Lunardi even has them within sniffing distance

DoMieD
03-09-2009, 11:21 PM
I think they could of loss, and still got in if the game had been a little closer, but them getting blown out, on national television might have put them in the last 4 out.

But I hope they do get in, they could definitely play with a lot of the teams that will be getting at large bids and its a good look for the WCC.

krozman
03-09-2009, 11:25 PM
My brain votes for no, but it's a great story because none of the other bubble teams are really showing that they want in this tournament. Since the bubble is weak this year, may as well give it to St. Mary's.

Nevtelen
03-09-2009, 11:55 PM
On the scroll bar, ESPN is currently saying Gaels are in the first 4 out. My guess is it's a Mills issue more than anything and that if he shows himself to be good vs Eastern, they'll be in. He was clearly not 100% tonight.

jim77
03-10-2009, 01:27 AM
Hope they get in. Losing by 25 didn't help...that war with portland last night took some starch out of them. I'm keeping my fingers crossed they get in.

Rangerzag
03-10-2009, 05:07 AM
The committee will not give them a birth.

No reflection on worthiness. Reflections more on East Coast bias and WCC bias than what SMC may or may not have earned.

DixieZag
03-10-2009, 05:19 AM
I think it is a matter of score board watching at this point, plain and simple, no surprise wins in tourney finals taking up at large seeds, and Patty Mills playing well on Friday, Bennett looks like a genius for scheduling that game, I don't see a down side, unless they play terribly and I don't think they will.

JAGzag
03-10-2009, 05:33 AM
I'm a little surprised they are being strongly considered. Their SOS is not directly attributed to the WCC schedule, although it didn't help - they really didn't play anyone that tough early in the season. They have a good win against Utah State, but that was at home. And who cares if they look good against EWU?! They should, but after this loss, they were exposed.

4AmericasTeam
03-10-2009, 05:33 AM
They were taken to the woodshed by a likely "4" seed (us) and did not look like a NCAA tourney team at all. It should be NIT for the Gaels, plain and simple

jpwils
03-10-2009, 06:14 AM
IF SMc does not dance in the BIG one ( and I think they may get bumped barely), Mills will have about 10 days to heal or more.

10 days is a long time when rehabbing an injury like this.

WCC bias will keep SMC out- barely, but SMC may go very far in the NIT.

Birddog
03-10-2009, 06:22 AM
The committee will not give them a birth.

How about a re-birth, or better yet a berth?

ZagLawGrad
03-10-2009, 06:47 AM
Would be good for WCC reputation and credibility for SMC to get in, but I don't think they have done enough to get in. Obviously, Mills' injury beyond their control.

john montana
03-10-2009, 06:51 AM
Who did they play again? With the schedule they played they shouldn't dance.

FieldHouseFishHouse
03-10-2009, 07:09 AM
I truly, honestly think this is 50/50 right now. IMHO they deserve to dance right now. No way they aren't one of the top 65 teams in the nation.
SMC is so directly on the bubble its not even funny, or easy to justify a prediction. They ARE on of the top 65 teams in the country. The problem is you have to be a solid top 45 team to feel good the night before selection. Usually about 10 teams that get auto bids are locks for at large spots as well. 10 + 34 = 44, the other 21 spots go to Cinderellas and the low-major conferences. Is SMC on of the top 44-45 teams? If you are going by RPI they are, by a hair. This game against EWU will lower their RPI a touch, though their rank could hold or even climb if the right teams go down. To sum up, I have no idea what the committee will do. If it was all about "body of work", they are still on the bubble, with the Mills issue it becomes even more tangled.

ZagSlug
03-10-2009, 07:14 AM
Reward them for trying to play up their schedule in the words of one of the announcers the other night.

We don't need another .500 BCS school taking another spot away and losing in the first round.

I was going to joke that SMC could do that but I think they could win a game in the tourney.

zaguarxj
03-10-2009, 09:05 AM
St. Mary's put too much emphasis on "we're a good team with Mills back" and not enough emphasis on "we're a good team with or without Mills." They beat Utah St. without Mills -- they should have hung their hat on that. The Zags beat-down of St. Mary's despite Mills' return puts a real damper on the Mills-as-baketball-messiah strategy.

gu03alum
03-10-2009, 09:12 AM
Smc = Cbi

gamagin
03-10-2009, 09:28 AM
St. Mary's put too much emphasis on "we're a good team with Mills back" and not enough emphasis on "we're a good team with or without Mills." They beat Utah St. without Mills -- they should have hung their hat on that. The Zags beat-down of St. Mary's despite Mills' return puts a real damper on the Mills-as-baketball-messiah strategy.

that would have been their best strategy.

It seems like there was a parallel pr campaign going on involving the wcc itself - the effort to get two teams into the dance. imo, had they touted the relative increase in strength and talent in the league's top 4, anyway, it might have lent more credence to even smc at least narrowly losing to the Zags. But in the end, Mills wasn't ready and the beatdown was convincing alright, only not in the right direction, if you are the wcc or smc.

Go TEAM Zags !

kitzbuel
03-10-2009, 09:31 AM
How interesting would it have been if SMC waited until after this tourney week to schedule their extra game and then tried picking up Davidson at a neutral site?

Zageist
03-10-2009, 09:33 AM
I can't see how playing EWU is gonna help them. The win, big deal, the lose, very big deal. I don't see them in the tourney after last night.

EngineerZag
03-10-2009, 09:58 AM
I wish SMC could be in the tourney but I don't see it happening. I agree with the above poster who said that they made it too much about Mills and not enough about being a good team even without him. Even if he plays well against EWU I don't think their RPI is good enough. They should have scheduled better out of conference. Their SOS is 170!

UberZagFan
03-10-2009, 10:23 AM
Uber thinks they're out. And yes, it's not whether they are one of the best 65 but best 44-45 as 20 teams that are not as good will get auto-bids. There is no question SMC is better than Radford or BMI or whatever. They just need to hope that bubble teams don't win conference tourneys and bump down a team that is a lock--for instance, AZ winning the Pac-10 tourney.



How interesting would it have been if SMC waited until after this tourney week to schedule their extra game and then tried picking up Davidson at a neutral site?

Yes, that would be interesting. A game against Niagara, who Uber thinks has a better resume than Davidson, would be cool. Actually, this is a concept mid-majors should start considering. Maybe a four-team tourney of mid-major conference tourney runner-ups with top 75 RPIs only qualified--or conf. winners that didn't win the tourney. Then you play fri-sat before the selection sunday. Winning doesn't get you in but it boosts your resume.

Teams could hold back one out of conference game earlier in the year and save it for this week to boost their resume.

Das Zagger
03-10-2009, 10:56 AM
They failed the eye test against Gonzaga. Injuries happen and good teams find a way to win. With that said, I think the injury to Mills (he completely changes the dynamic of the game) could be considered a special case, but, who did they really beat this year?

Colbyspapa
03-10-2009, 11:06 AM
Would love them to go but everyone knows on Selection Sunday, the committee will be arguing about teams with RPIs in the 30s, not the 50s. If they would have made a game of last night, then they probably would get the nod, but they did not look good last night and didn't win any votes on that committee. May have lost a few, plus we will be measured by the games that people remember... Memphis and UCONN. Then we beat St. Mary's 3 times this year. It doesn't look good for them.

lothar98zag
03-10-2009, 12:30 PM
They failed the eye test against Gonzaga. Injuries happen and good teams find a way to win. With that said, I think the injury to Mills (he completely changes the dynamic of the game) could be considered a special case, but, who did they really beat this year?
GU failed the eye test vs Memphis. Should GU be judged on that game alone? If no, then SMC shouldn't be judged on yesterday's game alone.

I guess I can understand the negative feeling/opinions RE: SMC, but I personally hope they make it. IMHO, they're a pretty good team w/o Mills (I was @ the Utah St game) and a very good/maybe great team with him healthy and in game shape. Hopefully for them, he'll be able to show the rust is gone vs EWU.

Regarding SMC's RPI & SOS, their schedule looked alot better in the early fall. Among other OOC games, they had Kent St, Ducks, S Illinois, & a 3 game tourney in Anaheim. It's not their fault, several of their OOC opponents ended up stinking, but it is what it is. Hopefully the selection committee will see what they tried to do and not just the current RPI #s. But what is their fault, and hurt their SOS, is the loss to UTEP to start the Anaheim tourney. UTEP (19-11, 79) isn't bad, but the loss made them play CSU-Full (13-16, 204) & Providence (18-12, 71). If they'd won, they would have played WF (24-5, 10) & then ASU (22-8, 34) or Baylor (16-13, 75). The difference in SOS due to that one loss may end up being the deciding factor that keeps SMC out. We'll see...

Das Zagger
03-10-2009, 12:51 PM
GU failed the eye test vs Memphis. Should GU be judged on that game alone? If no, then SMC shouldn't be judged on yesterday's game alone.

I think that is a valid point and I should have been a bit clearer. It's my take, that the selection committee wanted to see what SMC would be like with Mills back. Against Portland, he was rusty which I don't think was a surprise. It was a few SMC employee's take that as long as they didn't get blown out by Gonzaga, then they would be in. Last night (which now seems like a week ago, I was on a 7am flight home) hurt more than it helped. It was an eye test for Mills' impact to SMC.

The EWU game has no bearing, unless they lose, on the SMC post-season hopes but was scheduled to keep them fresh and give Patty another game before a post-season tournament.

I think it would be great for them to get a bid but if I'm a Gaels fan, I wouldn't be holding my breath.

mainer6
03-10-2009, 02:39 PM
If they do go, and they look as bad as they did last night, it will look bad for Saint Marys and for the whole WCC. People will say, "That's the second best team in WCC? What a weak conference."

NotoriousZ
03-10-2009, 03:10 PM
While it might look saavy to schedule another game like SMC did, I think it is just making a farce of the process.

I hope Eastern plays their game of the year and beats them, and then the Cougs kill them in the NITs.

Wow! Now there's a man who REALLY hates St. Mary's. I can respect that, but I want them in the tournament. I agree with those who said the EWU game is a good idea. Right now, it's brilliant. It's not something that should be done every year, but this gives Mills more time to heal up and show he can play effectively in the NCAA's. Besides win the game, that's all Mills and the Gaels have to do and they're in, IMHO. Because after the beatdown we just gave them, they are right on the bubble, and probably on the wrong side of it.

McZag
03-10-2009, 05:32 PM
Injuries count. Marquette is going to find out as well when they get a 7-10 seed instead of a 3 or better. The commitee will take into account Dominc James injury and it will hurt.

Teams have to be as healthy in March as they are in Nov. in order for Nov. wins to count. This will be a tough pill for SMC to swallow but its only fair. There are healthy teams out there that deserve a dance ticket.

ZagLawGrad
03-10-2009, 05:40 PM
How interesting would it have been if SMC waited until after this tourney week to schedule their extra game and then tried picking up Davidson at a neutral site?

Now that would have been a game worth something.

Zag4Hire
03-10-2009, 06:31 PM
I would say no but what these other teams that are on the bubble how they do in their tournament? I would say if some of these bubble teams lose their first round game in their respective conference, it might just open up the door a bit.

kitzbuel
03-10-2009, 07:14 PM
I would say no but what these other teams that are on the bubble how they do in their tournament? I would say if some of these bubble teams lose their first round game in their respective conference, it might just open up the door a bit.
Butler did not help them.

edcasey
03-10-2009, 07:34 PM
Butler loss to Cleveland State puts one less spot available for SMU to grab off the bubble.

Then Weber state losing to MOntana State makes probably one less spot available for SMU off the bubble

not looking positive this early in decision week.

4AmericasTeam
03-10-2009, 07:59 PM
SMC did not win their league, did not win their league tourney and did not play a high quality OOC schedule. Now had they beaten the likes of, say, a Tennesse twice and an OSU and smoked a good WSU team on their home court and also won the Old Spice Classic, I would give them some credit. Sorry Gaels--none of the above for you; no playing Polyanna on this one; have a great NIT

former1dog
03-10-2009, 08:02 PM
As has been stated, Cleveland State winning makes it that much harder for St. Mary's.

Nevtelen
03-10-2009, 09:08 PM
Butler loss to Cleveland State puts one less spot available for SMU to grab off the bubble.

Then Weber state losing to MOntana State makes probably one less spot available for SMU off the bubble

not looking positive this early in decision week.

Weber St ain't going to the Dance, not even close. But the Buter loss hurts them. Still, I think if SMC shows in the EWU game that Mills is healthy (most important) and do decently against the Eags, then they're probably in (depending on the strength of the rest of the bubble, of course, but probably).