View Full Version : Gonzaga just moved to a 5 seed...

03-07-2009, 12:25 PM
in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, with a win over Santa Clara/San Diego on Sunday. Marquette, a current 5 seed, just lost their 4th straight game, as they lost in OT to Syracuse. Joe Lunardi had Gonzaga as the highest rated 6 seed. That's what I am basing this statement off of.

Take care of business on Sunday, and be a 5 seed on Monday. Win the conference tournament on Monday, who knows, maybe a 4 seed on Tuesday. Just keep winning fellas. Every game counts and take nothing for granted. Man I am so excited for Sunday night.:D

Sidenote: Joe Lunardi will start updating his bracketology everyday during Championship Week.

03-07-2009, 02:50 PM
5 for sure.....win the confernce and move to a 4. Others WILL lose. I dunno if the committee looks at spreads in losses but if they do, GU won't look so bad. What we could really use is victories over some bigtime, highly rated teams. We just don't have that. It's also important to remember that just when our guys were making progress to win back the hearts, we got creamed on National TV by Memphis...so it's back to the WCC which very few people like or repsect as a basketball conference.

03-07-2009, 06:55 PM
I'm with you on the 4 seed and think that is a truly fair seed for this Zags group. But I just don't know...as you can see with Lunardi I don't think he bases his seedings as much on what teams are doing down the stretch but instead heavily rates the computer numbers such as RPI and top 50 wins.

Biggest example of this is his love affair with the Big 10. The eye-test will tell you that the league is not that good. However they do a masterful job of scheduling as a conference and such they artificially inflate their RPI numbers heading in to conference play. Then basically any win in the Big 10 conf season counts as a top 50 victory and everyone looks great.

So the post on the 3-7 range is right on. Just depends on if the committee is looking more with the eye-test or just working off a computer generated list.

03-07-2009, 08:05 PM
I think we're pretty firmly in the 5 or 6 seed assuming we win out. A 4 seed really depends on "help" from other teams in the 4 and 5 column to lose big enough to drop them. That being said, when we get a 7 seed i'm not going to be wholly surprised.

03-07-2009, 10:01 PM
4 Gonzaga
13 W. Kentucky
in Portland

03-08-2009, 07:26 AM
I wonder if the matchups arent better as a six seed. I think we can play with anybody, but the easiest path onward would be nice.

03-08-2009, 10:20 AM
The thing that I learned about Bracketology is that it is all about making educated measures of attrition. Bracketology done early in the season will never look pretty, and is typically not even worth looking at. There's just too many outcomes from other teams that affect positioning that it's impossible to paint an accurate picture until later on. Lunardi has a good sense for what teams wins and losses means, which is why he usually gets almost every team right for the at-large bids. I think offering a ranged system of where a team's resume comes into play is more interesting than the current system, which offers actual hypothetical match ups. My take on how I would put Gonzaga's stock:

Ceiling 3 seed
Lowest possible projection 7 seed
Best seeding estimate 4

Gonzaga has too many losses and not enough top notch wins to get a one or a two seed, but there are enough high seeded teams who could lose in their conference tournaments that they could drop below Gonzaga's seeding. Regardless, I think there will be enough conference tournament losses that Gonzaga should move into a 4 seed. They lose in their own conference tournament and they are bound to be a 7 seed.

I hope you don't get too upset when they put GU in the 5/12 game.