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View Full Version : Just the facts, ma'am: GU v SMC



SpudDawg
03-07-2009, 07:39 AM
Panelists say ...

1. SMC Gaels should be in the NCAA Tournament field.

2. "They're better than Gonzaga." (Hubert Davis and Digger Phelps)

USMC69
03-07-2009, 07:49 AM
Number 1. I agree
Number 2. Guess that's why they play the game.

GO ZAGS

GoZags
03-07-2009, 07:56 AM
There's been a great deal of hue and cry about how SMC was "pounding" Gonzaga at the Kennel this year before Patty Mills was injured. I've also seen the term "annihilating" Gonzaga. To a person, the national pundits have acknowledged that GU would have lost that game had the status quo remained the same.

Let's see the history of GU/SMC at the Mac, and see if this year's result wasn't more of the trend. The final column is halftime margin to end of game margin.

'05 Halftime: SMC 38 GU 26 -- Final: SMC 63 GU 68 (-12 to +5)

'06 Halftime: SMC 33 GU 30 -- Final: SMC 61 GU 62 (-3 to +1)

'07 Halftime: SMC 23 GU 25 -- Final: SMC 49 GU 60 (+2 to +11)

'08 Halftime: SMC 36 GU 38 -- Final: SMC 76 GU 88 (+2 to +12)

'09 Halftime: SMC 39 GU 33 -- Final: SMC 62 GU 69 (-6 to +7)

Zags are 5-0 at home against SMC in K2 despite being down at the half in three of the games and up by 2 at halftime in the other 2 games. Sure seems to me as if Few and the staff are able to withstand early SMC success, make adjustments, and dominate the 2nd half in games at home.

realtydog
03-07-2009, 07:57 AM
they wasted no time on debate--SMC was better....period

DoMieD
03-07-2009, 08:32 AM
I use to like to listen to Digger, but here lately he's just being plain stupid..

Saint Marys isn't nearly as good as Gonzaga, with or without Patty Mills.

MDABE80
03-07-2009, 08:45 AM
Nice work GZ. Took some time to figure that out. Well done.

SO much for the "taint" argument. SO much for the annihilate argument too. Hard to defend the concept of a 6 pt lead as an annihilation. SMC is good. Hope they get in. Look out for lots of "drama" type words and talk now that the tournament looms. It's "colorful" talk. TV stars and all those types need some excitement for ratings....and new contracts too.

nonzagzag
03-07-2009, 08:45 AM
Ever since the gameday guys saw our beatdown at the hands of Memphis, they seem to be down on us. I guess it's understandable, but most other good teams have had at least one bad game this year.

ZagLawGrad
03-07-2009, 08:46 AM
This Board is a place where Zag fans offer a wide range of opinions. But true Zag fans have to all agree on one thing for sure------we NEED to play SMC Monday, and we NEED to beat them to have any chance of ending this debate. Hope our guys are reading all the trash about SMC, thinking about the WCC awards snubs, and turning it all into a major beat down of SMC.

But I wonder. Even if the Zags beat SMC, will the story then be that the Zags would not have beaten SMC if the Gaels had Mills at 100%?

Even though I hope for a trashing of the Gaels by GU on Monday, it would add a lot of credibility to the WCC if SMC makes the Dance. So I hope a good, old fashioned beat down doesn't keep 'em out of the tournament.

gamagin
03-07-2009, 08:47 AM
There's been a great deal of hue and cry about how SMC was "pounding" Gonzaga at the Kennel this year before Patty Mills was injured. I've also seen the term "annihilating" Gonzaga. To a person, the national pundits have acknowledged that GU would have lost that game had the status quo remained the same.

Let's see the history of GU/SMC at the Mac, and see if this year's result wasn't more of the trend. The final column is halftime margin to end of game margin.

'05 Halftime: SMC 38 GU 26 -- Final: SMC 63 GU 68 (-12 to +5)

'06 Halftime: SMC 33 GU 30 -- Final: SMC 61 GU 62 (-3 to +1)

'07 Halftime: SMC 23 GU 25 -- Final: SMC 49 GU 60 (+2 to +11)

'08 Halftime: SMC 36 GU 38 -- Final: SMC 76 GU 88 (+2 to +12)

'09 Halftime: SMC 39 GU 33 -- Final: SMC 62 GU 69 (-6 to +7)

Zags are 5-0 at home against SMC in K2 despite being down at the half in three of the games and up by 2 at halftime in the other 2 games. Sure seems to me as if Few and the staff are able to withstand early SMC success, make adjustments, and dominate the 2nd half in games at home.

I'm beginning to like the fact that the talking heads have joined the crowds this season. Our guys could use the lost love to do some positive things.

It's all good as long as we take care of business.

Go Zags !

BobZag
03-07-2009, 09:11 AM
There's something that just doesn't compute about making Absolute Declarations when they are based on "ifs" and hypotheticals. I've never understood that.

Zags have been down by 17, 16 and 8 points at halftimes at home before, and have come back to win. 6 points in basketball is hardly the equvilent of a PAT in football.

Good luck to SMC but I don't get all the absolutism going on.

SpudDawg
03-07-2009, 09:20 AM
I subscribe to Abe's theory re: the need for drama. Plus it's really easy to say, without putting any kind of rational thought into it, that "since St. Mary's was up by 6 when Mills was injured, if he had not been hurt everything else would have remained the same and St. Mary's would have won."

Some people on this board have bought into that line of "logic" surrounding that particular game. However, it's just as easy to argue that an uninjured Mills would not have hit another shot, let alone another 3-pointer, had he remained in the game. Neither premise can ever be proven or disproven.

rennis
03-07-2009, 09:22 AM
I use to like to listen to Digger, but here lately he's just being plain stupid..

Saint Marys isn't nearly as good as Gonzaga, with or without Patty Mills.

IMO this has nothing to do with SMC and everything to do with the Memphis loss. The way we played that game has haunted the team ever since...

BobZag
03-07-2009, 09:50 AM
Saint Marys isn't nearly as good as Gonzaga, with or without Patty Mills.

That is an absolute statement based on nothing but opinion. I guess I'm too logical in an emotional world, I dunno.

I do know two of the Zags' five losses have been to the #1 and #5 teams in the nation, and yes, Gonzaga played poorly in one of those games. GU also lost by one point in another and by five in another. PSU was a bad loss. That sums up GU's five losses.

Gonzaga has beaten the SEC East Champion twice, the hottest Pac-10 team lately by 20+, won the Old Spice Classic, swept through the WCC regular season by an average of about 19 points per game...

That is all I know, factually.

ZagAddict
03-07-2009, 10:07 AM
There's been a great deal of hue and cry about how SMC was "pounding" Gonzaga at the Kennel this year before Patty Mills was injured. I've also seen the term "annihilating" Gonzaga. To a person, the national pundits have acknowledged that GU would have lost that game had the status quo remained the same.

Let's see the history of GU/SMC at the Mac, and see if this year's result wasn't more of the trend. The final column is halftime margin to end of game margin.

'05 Halftime: SMC 38 GU 26 -- Final: SMC 63 GU 68 (-12 to +5)

'06 Halftime: SMC 33 GU 30 -- Final: SMC 61 GU 62 (-3 to +1)

'07 Halftime: SMC 23 GU 25 -- Final: SMC 49 GU 60 (+2 to +11)

'08 Halftime: SMC 36 GU 38 -- Final: SMC 76 GU 88 (+2 to +12)

'09 Halftime: SMC 39 GU 33 -- Final: SMC 62 GU 69 (-6 to +7)

Zags are 5-0 at home against SMC in K2 despite being down at the half in three of the games and up by 2 at halftime in the other 2 games. Sure seems to me as if Few and the staff are able to withstand early SMC success, make adjustments, and dominate the 2nd half in games at home.

It's so much easier to just declare that SMC is the better team. Why try to add any factual information ;)

I REALLY hope GU gets the opportunity to play SMC on Monday and end this debate once and for all. I could add my "opinion" to the mix of post, but at the end of the day it's just a biased opinion. I want to see this whole drama settled on the court against a SMC team with the savior Patty Mills.

The posts on this board surrounding SMC don't deny that SMC is a good team. What bothers me is that the rest of the WCC and media wants to tear down GU to try and make SMC look better. Why not evaluate SMC on their own and stop comparing them to GU :confused: It is amazing that SMC seems to be completely evaluated on 1 half of basketball against GU... while GU is evaluated on a single game against Memphis. Newsflash: IT'S NOT THAT SIMPLE. I wish GU could be evaluated on their 2nd half against WSU...

Good luck to both GU and SMC in the WCC tournament... I hope everyone gets to see the GU/SMC matchup... it would be great exposure for the WCC in general. I know who I'll be rooting for... :D

roxdoc
03-07-2009, 10:10 AM
It seems every time the talking heads get excited about us we give them a reality check - and not just this year. Now the shoe is on the other foot - time to swing the pendulum in the other direction. One game at a time guys - just pound, pound, pound the idea home!

GO ZAGS!

Birddog
03-07-2009, 10:48 AM
I was talking with my Oklahoma St buddy this morning about the game with OU this afternoon. He pointed out that if it weren't for two horrible calls, OSU would be 10 and 5 in the Big12. The point? our win over OSU is looking better all the time, esp if OSU can somehow beat Blake Griffen and co.

Ezag
03-07-2009, 10:53 AM
This is an endless debate.....and like the Stock Market, all based on speculation and what-if's.

Now let the games begin!

mendiant
03-07-2009, 12:26 PM
I just went out to the Gaels' site and looked at their non con schedule...

I'm sure it's been brought up before by others more knowledgable than myself, but I checked..

Mind, this was when Patty was healthy, they had a good non conference part of their season...against...any...ranked...teams???

The comment this AM annoyed me enough to go out and see the Gaels' schedule to start with...

never been there before...

I must've been annoyed!;)

PDXZag
03-07-2009, 01:32 PM
I don't agree with the panel's first proposition, SMC should be in the tournament. Why? What have they done to deserve an NCAA at-large bid? They have an RPI hovering around 50. They played a cup cake non-conference schedule so the # of wins is deceiving. Do they have a single win against a team that will be in the NCAA Tournament? Perhaps Providence and Utah State, but those two teams, by no means, are locks for the Tourney. They finished second in a bad conference (with 4 losses) and should have finished in third place had Portland not pissed down it's leg in the final weekend of the regular season. In short, I just don't see it. I just can't see the selection committee giving them an at-large bid with their resume. As a fan of the WCC (and of Bennett), I'd love to see the league get 2 bids, but I just don't see how it happens this year.

McZag
03-07-2009, 01:37 PM
Panelists say ...

1. SMC Gaels should be in the NCAA Tournament field.

2. "They're better than Gonzaga." (Hubert Davis and Digger Phelps)

I heard this this morning too. They think SMC is better WITH Mills at 100% and I agree.

That said I expect the Zags to play Mills better than they did in the first half in Spokane.

Ezag
03-07-2009, 01:41 PM
No one can say with any certainty that SMC is better with Mills than us because we have never played a full game on those terms, now hopefully this weekend we will meet and put this ridiculous talk to rest.

GonzagaDynasty
03-07-2009, 06:58 PM
How they can say SMC is better than Gonzaga is rediculous. SMC is borderline BAD without Patty Mills..... We have enough good players to compensate for injury.

Gonzaga is a better team hands down. Patty was on FIRE from 3 in K2 this year, and there is no way he would have kept up that pace.

jim77
03-07-2009, 07:37 PM
That is an absolute statement based on nothing but opinion. I guess I'm too logical in an emotional world, I dunno.

I do know two of the Zags' five losses have been to the #1 and #5 teams in the nation, and yes, Gonzaga played poorly in one of those games. GU also lost by one point in another and by five in another. PSU was a bad loss. That sums up GU's five losses.

Gonzaga has beaten the SEC East Champion twice, the hottest Pac-10 team lately by 20+, won the Old Spice Classic, swept through the WCC regular season by an average of about 19 points per game...

That is all I know, factually.

That's about right Bob.

I think theres way too much thinking about St. Mary's...they aren't gonna be the ones ending our season. Honestly, I think if both teams meet for the championship and its close, one gets the auto the other an at-large bid. In fact this fan wants to see BOTH get in. I do think it'll be close. Both teams better worry more about what happens in the semi's.....ST. Mary's MUST win in the semi's to have a chance to dance. We could probably survive an upset and dance. Zags just need to take care of business.

ZagLawGrad
03-07-2009, 08:40 PM
SMC will have its hands full with Portland. The Pilot aren't even breathing hard so far against P-Dine

PDXZag
03-07-2009, 09:04 PM
Seriously, can anyone make a legitimate argument as to why SMC deserves an at-large bid based on the criteria used by the Committee (RPI, vs. RPI Top 25/50, who did you play, who did you beat, et al.)? The best argument (which is not criteria that Committee admits it uses) is that they have 24/25 wins and their best player was injured for part of the season and is now back (but please ignore the fact that they we have no decent wins). We'll see how the bubble teams shake out, but for SMC to get in as an at large, it would inevitably mean that a RPI sub 35-40 team got passed over for SMC. Tough to imagine that happening.

On another note, with the way UP is playing tonight, this whole argument might be moot. Then again, SMC controls its own destiny; win 2 games and you are in.

ZagLawGrad
03-07-2009, 09:14 PM
On another note, with the way UP is playing tonight, this whole argument might be moot...

You just might be on to something there. Portland could very well be playing Monday night.

B Wayne
03-07-2009, 09:55 PM
The 2 most important components to an opinion are 1) factual knowledge and 2) objectivity/bias. We all know Jay Bilas is more objective than any of us Zag fans vested in our team. And I'm sorry, but Bilas knows more basketball than most of us.

Bilas opined there is little doubt St Mary's was on its way to defeating us with Mills at the Kennel this year. And he is wise enough to not just base this opinion on the score to that point, but on watching the matchups. Maybe his opinion was a little strongly stated, but nonetheless, worthy of great weight.

St Mary's is tough, even without Mills (who schooled Kobe and Wade a few times in the Olympics),played us down to the wire in Moraga.

Someone posted a banner statement (looks good on a banner, no depth) that St Mary's is a one trick pony. One of our objective posters silenced that with pointing out how our Zaqs played without Dickau. I believe we are a good team. I also believe St Mary's without Mills is a notch below us. With Mills, an NBA level player....ummm if we are worthy of the NCAA tournament, they are too with Mills

Zagsker
03-07-2009, 10:34 PM
But I wonder. Even if the Zags beat SMC, will the story then be that the Zags would not have beaten SMC if the Gaels had Mills at 100%?

of course it will be

this BS needs to stop..if SMC is the "better" team...than losing ONE player should not make them a shadow of themselves.

Zagsker
03-07-2009, 10:38 PM
How they can say SMC is better than Gonzaga is rediculous. SMC is borderline BAD without Patty Mills..... We have enough good players to compensate for injury.

Gonzaga is a better team hands down. Patty was on FIRE from 3 in K2 this year, and there is no way he would have kept up that pace.

EXACTLY

JPtheBeasta
03-08-2009, 09:28 AM
I don't think it will matter if we beat them again with Mills, because some will diminish it by saying Mills wasn't at 100%. I like him; he seems like a good kid on top of being a really good ball player. Mills was a good story going into that game with us, but it seems his legend has grown during his time on the bench. I think for the good of the WCC it would be nice to see them get in, but I don't personally think they have earned it yet (ho hum non-conference schedule, no key wins). Injuries, as tough as they are to take sometimes, are part of the game.

I think it's cool, though, that a team that doesn't really have the resume is a tournament team since the could have beat Gonzaga. That says a lot about GU.

johnwzag
03-08-2009, 10:25 AM
The 2 most important components to an opinion are 1) factual knowledge and 2) objectivity/bias. We all know Jay Bilas is more objective than any of us Zag fans vested in our team. And I'm sorry, but Bilas knows more basketball than most of us.

Bilas opined there is little doubt St Mary's was on its way to defeating us with Mills at the Kennel this year. And he is wise enough to not just base this opinion on the score to that point, but on watching the matchups. Maybe his opinion was a little strongly stated, but nonetheless, worthy of great weight.

I like Jay Bilas a lot. He is smart. But - Jay is human and not capable of knowing all Division 1 teams inside and out. No one can keep that much knowledge in their head. He has little to say about what Gonzaga has done this year - no doubt because he just does not know. His focus is spread out in other areas. I would have thought he would have spent more time knowing GU, when we came so close to beating UCONN who was #1 most of the season.

The experts do a lot of measuring against Gonzaga though, that is the odd thing. Any team that looks good against us, is highly praised. Memphis went from barely hanging in the top 25, to looking like a final 4 team. The same is true for SMC. They were not ranked and not talked about a whole lot until that first half against GU.

While SMC is an good team - They are not better than Gonzaga and I see no reasoning for them winning that game against GU. If anything - Patty Mills brings down SMCs shooting percentage. Yes he was on fire that game, but GU has played the second half better all season.

Let's look at Mill's numbers. He averages 18.7 points a game. He had 18 at that half on 6-14/6-8 shooting. That isnt Mills from 3, that is what happens sometimes. If Mills was that good, then I would agree with the "experts". He is not. With a much weaker schedule then GU, has shot 128/302 51/141. In my opinion, that is terrible shooting and not the kind of numbers that would put a player into the spotlight that Mills has been put in.

As a team SMC is shooting 194/577 (33%) from 3, so Patty is shooting 2% better than the team from 3. As a team SMC is 745/1659 (45%) from inside which is 4% higher than Mills. The big guys inside are getting the rebounds and the higher percentage shots.

Let's look how the point guards are doing

Player Assists TO Steals
Patty 77 60 47
Jeremy 148 74 40

My conclusion: Patty Mills was put in the spotlight because of 6-8 shooting from 3 for 1/2 of a single game. That is all. He is not a good shooter or point guard. The other players on SMC deserve more credit. Gonzaga is a better team in almost every area. Portland has a good chance of beating SMC, with Patty coming back in, it may hurt the Gaels who are just getting used to playing without him and who will probably bring the teams shooting percentage down.

PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS
GU 78.3 38.3 14.9 11.6 1.3/1 7.3 5.3 16.2 .483 .710 .382 1.34
SMC 73.8 39.7 13.9 13.0 1.1/1 7.2 5.1 16.4 .449 .695 .336 1.29
Por 70.4 33.8 15.5 14.1 1.1/1 5.7 2.4 20.2 .463 .673 .411 1.30

So - GU is the best team in the WCC. Period!

However; anything can happen. We could have a bad game and lose to SCU even. Will see what happens. No matter what. Gonzaga is the best team in the WCC this year. That is the logical conclusion.