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Hextall7388
02-23-2009, 05:13 PM
In light of the 6th seed Lunardi assigned us in the most recent version of his Bracketology, I've tried to crunch some numbers to see where we might end up if we can run the table. I must be crazy, or perhaps overly optimistic, but is it possible that we could land a 4 seed if we get some luck?

Looking at the ESPN Top 15 teams prior to the Tournament in 06/07 and 07/08, only 2 teams received a seed higher than a 5.

The breakdown of the Top 15:
07/08 4-#1 seeds, 4-#2 seeds, 4-#3 seeds, 2-#5 seeds, 1-#7 seed(Butler ranked 10th)
06/07 4-#1 seeds, 4-#2 seeds, 4-#3 seeds, 2-#4 seeds, 1-#7 seed(Nevada ranked 15th)

With the exception of Butler last year, teams that finish in the Top 10 before the Tournament were seeded #3 or better in each of the last two years.

The Zags are sitting at #17 now, and for the purpose of this little exercise, I'm counting on them being able to run the table. Looking at the schedules of the 9 teams immediately ahead of the Zags, including each team's conference tournament schedule, it's not unreasonable to think that the Zags could finish in the Top 10-12 teams. When you include their conference tournaments, it's quite likely that many of the 9 teams will lose at least 2 or 3 more games before Selection Sunday. Provided we don't get Butlered, a 5 seed seems pretty realistic, and a 4 seed might be possible if the stars align.

I can already sense the "you are crazy" responses to my thought that we could get a 4, so, back to reality, I'll admit that our RPI is probably going to kill us in the end and we will be looking at a 6 seed. To that point, I know it will be nice to have the tune up game against USC Upstate before the WCC tournament, but their 299 RPI is really not going to help our RPI and our case for 4 or 5 seed. Back on February 13th we had an RPI of 28, and after wins against USF, LMU and Pepperdine we dropped to 40th. Good thing SMC, Maryland, WSU and Oklahoma State came up with big wins last week or we would be even lower.

BobZag
02-23-2009, 05:19 PM
Lunardi isn't responsible for today's bracketology. A bunch of hoops guys gathered and did a mock selection committee thing. Here is what Joe had to say today-- (Oh, and yes, a 4 or 5 is definitely possible; but must win out.)

--------------------------

People often ask how the actual NCAA selection process differs from Bracketology. I usually joke that it's a whole lot easier to get one person (me!) to agree on something than it is to get 10 people to agree.

Yesterday, with a mix of real and demonstration game results presented by the NCAA staff, a group of ESPN types played the role of the Division I men's basketball committee and produced the mock bracket displayed here. Before folks start driving off bridges in certain areas of the country, a few clarifications are in order:

In the exercise, Gonzaga won the West Coast Conference tournament. Saint Mary's lost in the championship game without star guard Patty Mills, who never returned from his injury. The Gaels still received some at-large consideration but did not make the final at-large ballot.

Butler won the Horizon League automatic qualifier. Without that, the Bulldogs clearly had enough support in the room to have been selected at-large if needed.

Florida and Georgetown made lengthy runs to win the SEC and Big East tournaments, respectively. The Hoyas became the first team ever to win five games in five days to secure their automatic bid.

Minnesota defeated Illinois for the Big Ten championship. The Gophers likely would have missed the field otherwise.

Niagara defeated Siena for the MAAC championship. This led to the most lengthy and passionate discussion of the day; namely, whether to vote the Saints into the field as an at-large. In a very close vote, Notre Dame became the final at-large team and Siena just missed the field (for the record, with the Irish reaching only the quarterfinals of the fictitious Big East tournament, I voted for Siena).

Creighton received some at-large consideration after losing to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley championship game -- but not enough.

Davidson (Southern Conference) and Utah State (WAC) failed to secure automatic bids in their leagues and received little to no at-large consideration.

On Friday, we will return to your regularly scheduled programming. In the meantime, don't shoot the messenger!

DoMieD
02-23-2009, 06:21 PM
but the last rankings before the Selection will not include the Tournament losses, right?

krozman
02-23-2009, 07:22 PM
Lunardi is very good at predicting WHO will be in the tournament, but historically has the zags one or two seeds higher than what actually happens. At least be bases his opinions on real numbers.

DixieZag
02-24-2009, 02:56 AM
This "Bracketology" had nothing to do with Lunardi, it was a mock excercise, given certain factual scenarios that imitate upsets and weird things that happen every year. I found the most disappointing thing to be that they started with picking a certain number of teams IN, without discussion, GU was not on that list, whether they won or lost their conference tournament, but they did assume that GU would win the conference tourney. I would have liked to see GU on the "automatic" list.

KOzag08
02-24-2009, 06:43 AM
This is where losses to Portland State and Utah really hurt us. Although, our Utah loss is looking better and better with them winning and almost in the top 25; same goes for U of A.

I can't help but think if we were 23-3 right now and debating whether or not we're getting a 1, 2, or 3 ...

KOzag08
02-24-2009, 06:47 AM
and why is Florida State getting a 4 seed but ranked 23rd in the AP and 25th in espn?

bullzag23
02-24-2009, 07:06 AM
but the last rankings before the Selection will not include the Tournament losses, right?

Rankings don't matter at all in the selection process. Granted only 1 ranked team in the tournament's history has ever been left out, but that's usually because teams in the top 25 have solid NCAA resumes. The final rankings before the tournament actually should come out on the monday after selection sunday, I do believe we have the potential to go up quite a few spots with many teams in front of us losing in their respective tourneys. I think this explains Kozag's question as well.

Even if we were 23-3 at this point, we would likely be out of the running for a 1 seed, with a 2 our best bet. However, a 4 seed is likely the best we can do if we win out from here, though I'd say a 5 is the most likely.

MedZag
02-24-2009, 07:18 AM
http://blog.cpedia.com/album/content/Thinking/Anything_is_possible/Anything_Is_Possible2.jpg

LongIslandZagFan
02-24-2009, 08:34 AM
but the last rankings before the Selection will not include the Tournament losses, right?

I think all wins and losses are taken into account.

zagzilla
02-24-2009, 08:46 AM
Acknowleging that this is a fictional exercise, it is still surprising that we didn't make the first cut:

"The teams that made our cut on the first ballot were:

Arizona State
Clemson
Connecticut
Duke
Illinois
Kansas
LSU
Louisville
Marquette
Memphis
Michigan State
Missouri
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Pitt
Purdue
Syracuse
UCLA
Villanova
Wake Forest
Washington
Xavier

Putting 22 teams into the field on the first ballot was par for the course, according to those on the committee. "

LongIslandZagFan
02-24-2009, 09:10 AM
I'm not Bracketologist.... but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night... :D

My supposition going forward on this thread is that the Zags win out the season and WCC tourney. Any losses by the boys and I think 6 or 7 is what we can expect to get.

I think a 4 seed would be a very tough get. For that to happen, some teams would need to collapse completely down the stretch. Now that being said, the way this season has been, it is NOT out of the realm of possibility.

I think a 5 seed is a reasonable possibility but could see us ending up a 6 seed.

Reborn
02-24-2009, 09:19 AM
I've still got my focus on a five seed in Portland. But honestly. I'd take a six seed if they give us Portland or Boise.

Hextall7388
02-24-2009, 09:52 AM
and why is Florida State getting a 4 seed but ranked 23rd in the AP and 25th in espn?

I realize Lunardi is not the sole contributor to the lastest version of Bracketology, but I'm not sure this colaborative effort differs greatly from the previous version prepared by Lundari on his own, at least as far as the Zags are concerned. If I recall correctly, the Zags were a 6 seed in the prior version too.

As for Kozag's question, I guess it's because Florida State has an RPI of 17.

As for teams that I think we can catch in the Top 25 [key games]:

#16 Purdue [Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State]

#14 Wake Forest [Clemson, Maryland]

#13 Clemson [Wake Forest, Florida State]

#11 ASU [Washington, WSU, Cal]

#10 Marquette [UConn, Louisville, Pitt, Syr]

I'm counting on each of these teams losing at least 2 more games, 1 more regular season game and a loss in their conference tournament. Could result in a 12th place finish for the Zags if they can win out. That should give the Zags a 5 seed...at least in my opinion....for what it's worth.

LongIslandZagFan
02-24-2009, 10:32 AM
I agree Hex... but key is the Zags holding serve so to speak.

malmer7
02-24-2009, 10:41 AM
even a 1 seed??? nice!

http://blog.cpedia.com/album/content/Thinking/Anything_is_possible/Anything_Is_Possible2.jpg

ZagMan in Philly
02-24-2009, 10:51 AM
http://bracketproject.50webs.com/tracker.html

Hextall7388
02-24-2009, 01:31 PM
Thanks for the site ZagMan in Philly.

Also want to thank you and the others who are responsible for streaming the games on Justin TV. I have no idea how that whole system works, but I sure enjoy the opportunity to watch every game now. Living in Canada I do not get the ESPN channels. I can't even register for ESPN 360! Thanks!

KOzag08
02-24-2009, 01:38 PM
Acknowleging that this is a fictional exercise, it is still surprising that we didn't make the first cut:

"The teams that made our cut on the first ballot were:

Arizona State
Clemson
Connecticut
Duke
Illinois
Kansas
LSU
Louisville
Marquette
Memphis
Michigan State
Missouri
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Pitt
Purdue
Syracuse
UCLA
Villanova
Wake Forest
Washington
Xavier

Putting 22 teams into the field on the first ballot was par for the course, according to those on the committee. "

this is from only 'major' conferences ...

ZagAddict
02-24-2009, 08:21 PM
I can't wait for BZ's March Madness contest for picking Gonzaga's seed, opponent, and 1st/2nd round site.

If the Zags win out, I think they will get to stay in the West. You can't go wrong with a Boise or Portland draw.