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View Full Version : Question: would we beat any of these teams?



MDABE80
02-19-2009, 01:42 PM
WHo among these teams would our Zags have a better than 50% chance of beating. These are the best 10 teams heading for the post season in my opinion. It's not "could" we beat them. I already KNOW we could. Would any of us have better than 50% confidence that we really would beat anyone on this list? I'm just curious. Does anyone think we would have beat them after the first 7 games? How about now? Might say a lot about our post season chances. Nobody knows the answer. I don't.


1 Pittsburgh
118.41 24-2 (11-2)
2 North Carolina
115.96 24-2 (10-2)
3 Connecticut
113.89 24-2 (12-2)
4 Oklahoma
112.84 25-1 (11-0)
5 Memphis
110.35 23-3 (11-0)
6 Kansas
105.67 21-5 (10-1)
7 Duke
105.06 20-5 (7-4)
8 Missouri
105.04 22-4 (9-2)
9 Michigan State
104.14 20-5 (10-3)
10 Louisville

Zagsker
02-19-2009, 01:48 PM
IMO....10-6 are teams we would have atleast a 50/50 chance of beating

(Mizzou does not worry me, same with Kansas, Duke...ehhhh, Louisville and Michigan St....very beatable)


PITT scares me as a team...as they are down right physical and aggressive

UCONN, UNC I put in the it would be tough but we are capable


OU...I would maybe put in the 50/50 category...I would love to see Griffin vs Heytvelt

Memphis...............I think our boys are psychologically scarred from Memphis and I have no idea how we would react to them

MississppiZag
02-19-2009, 01:51 PM
After the first 7 games, I would have said we would beat all of those teams, with the exception of UNC and Pitt.

Now I would say the only teams we would have a better than 50% chance of beating are Kansas, Missouri, and Michigan State.

We may have a meeting with Kansas or Mizzou in the 4-5 match-up in the tourney.

roxdoc
02-19-2009, 01:55 PM
On any given night - any of them. On a better than 50% = "0"

theirishzag03
02-19-2009, 02:09 PM
I would not EXPECT to beat any of them, BUT....


Some of the teams you list are more Jekyll and Hyde than others-

I would give the following % chance of beating the following based on matchups

Kansas (85%)--- They are very young, and I don't see the depth we have

UConn(80%) ---Dyson out, we slowed Thabeet and no more lucky 3's or foolish fould trouble.

Michigan St. (80%)--- They really lack chemistry and Purdue exposed a LOT of weaknesses

Oklahoma (60%) --- Who stops Blake Griffin??? That is my only concern, there guard play has improved, but Zags have a big enough edge to win

Louisville (55%)--- If they are not hitting 3's they are in trouble, Samardo Samuels could pose some problems, still a little over 50/50 confident in a win.

Missouri (53%)---Admit I don't know as much about them, but when I have seen them, they put crazy pressure on the ball! They have good depth, but not quite the "skill" the Zags have. Close, but Zags prevail.

Duke (51%) ---I think we match up pretty well , but which Duke team do we play??? If there is 1 team that has been as up and down as the Zags it is Duke (maybe Wake Forest too) which makes this pick only slightly better than a guess! If the team that Clemson wiped off the map shows up or they shoot 3-22 from 3point land...Zags cruise!!! If the team that blew out Maryland and crushed Xavier shows up, Zags better hope the team that won the OSC magically appears!

NOW THE BAD NEWS---7/10 not bad! Could mean we are FF worthy???

Pittsburgh (45%)--- They are so damn tough!!! Who stops Blair??? (Ira?) Sam Young??? Lavance Fields is a warrior!!! Pitt posses exactly what has been a glaring weakness for the Zags...Sorry !!!

Memphis (40%)--- They won every aspect of that game, arguably we were flat...BUT why??? Revenge and familiarity are the main factors of not being 20-30%

UNC (35%)--- If Pargo and Heytvelt played the games they did vs UNC last time I would say 50/50, but they have been trying to find that magic for a while... Tarheels have all the pieces, they usually show up, we have a chance, but it would take our best effort and even that may not be enough:)
Sure be fun to watch!!! In the NC or FF!

malmer7
02-19-2009, 02:17 PM
Would beat, or Could beat? Because even if this year's team hasn't been the most consistent ever (slight understatement maybe), it's the team with the most firepower that COULD knock off anyone IMO.

whatazag
02-19-2009, 02:22 PM
Second half of the list I think we'd have about 50% chance of beating.

bullzag23
02-19-2009, 02:56 PM
Even without Dyson I don't think we'd beat UCONN 80% of the time. Keep in mind we were playing on a neutral(VERY GU friendly) court when this happened. Could we beat them at UCONN or on a court closer to their home(well we did last year, but that was a different team)? I'm sure we could, but not 8 out of 10 times. Kansas and Missouri I think we could beat over 50% of the time.

After our first 7 games, I still thought Pitt was a tad overrated. At this point in the season, they have definitely proven me wrong, as I believe they are the toughest team in the country by far. We could beat UNC(not 50% though) if their D doesn't show up and their 3's don't fall. I'm still of the opinion that we can beat Memphis, but for some reason or another we just didn't come to play that night. Probably another one under 50%. Like us, Dook is an enigma. They either dominate or get dominated, with no real consistency between games. I believe at this point in time it's a toss up.

A battle with Oklahoma would be interesting, especially since we barely lost to them last year in OKC. However, we did have Sacre in that game, and without him I'd be worried about all the rebounds Griffin would collect. I'd say Oklahoma wins more often than not here(Sacre brings it back to 50% imo).

Louisville is another one of those 'tough' teams that worry me. Early on in the season I was not sold on these guys, but they have shown in Big East play that they are a legit team. They still have some inconsistencies, but they are good. I'd say 40% GU on this one.

I still don't know what to think about Michigan State. They got outrebounded heavily when they were slaughtered by Maryland, but then they go into the Big 10 and dominate(for the most part). Then Purdue backhands them. Too inconsistent, 60% GU.

That's my 2 cents.

theirishzag03
02-19-2009, 03:19 PM
Even without Dyson I don't think we'd beat UCONN 80% of the time. Keep in mind we were playing on a neutral(VERY GU friendly) court when this happened. Could we beat them at UCONN or on a court closer to their home(well we did last year, but that was a different team)? I'm sure we could, but not 8 out of 10 times. Kansas and Missouri I think we could beat over 50% of the time.

I wasn't saying we would beat them 8/10 times...I was just giving a % I thought we could beat them once (such as in the NCAA)

vaboris
02-19-2009, 03:52 PM
As of right now if GU had to play these teams on a neutral court - the Vegas oddsmakers MIGHT have GU favored in 2 of these games. Maybe only 1.

So GU would maybe beat 1 or 2 of these 10 teams 50% of the time.

cbbfanatic
02-19-2009, 04:37 PM
i think of these teams gonzaga would match up with duke, kansas and missouri the best (not sure kansas or missouri even belong on the list though)

wouldnt like a rematch with uconn or memphis, or games with pitt, louisville, unc or oklahoma

dont have a real read on michigan state

Bogozags
02-19-2009, 05:39 PM
1 Pittsburgh
118.41 24-2 (11-2)
2 North Carolina
115.96 24-2 (10-2)
3 Connecticut
113.89 24-2 (12-2)
4 Oklahoma
112.84 25-1 (11-0)
5 Memphis
110.35 23-3 (11-0)
6 Kansas
105.67 21-5 (10-1)
7 Duke
105.06 20-5 (7-4)
8 Missouri
105.04 22-4 (9-2)
9 Michigan State
104.14 20-5 (10-3)
10 Louisville



If the Gonzaga team that played at WSU showed up, we could probably beat just about all of them...think Pitt and UNC would be tougher than the others but still beatable IMO. After watching that game I really believed this team, playing on the road at a solid program, might well have a legitimate chance on playing for a NC. Their defense was just incredible and offensively we meshed...if the team that played Memphis shows up, then it would be difficult for us to beat bottom three. It just depends on which team shows up...

After all, we forget that outside of two of these players, these are kids like many of you. Still trying to understand their own expectations and how to get by on a day-to-day basis. I listened to Coaches Knight and K on ESPN and Coach Knight was pretty accurate...the values of todays kids are far different then those of kids 25 years ago. It is so much harder to stay focused, there are so many distractions...I am amazed at how they do what it is they do! I have been disappointed by the play of this year's team, not that we lost but how we lost...even the best team in the country UNC has the same issues. I have regained my focus on this team. If they can get by SCU, then I believe this team will hold its own in the Post Season. I believe these kids need to believe in themselves just as they did earlier this season.

Of course this is just my humble opinion...

theirishzag03
02-19-2009, 07:53 PM
Liking the new red REP! So all you anonymous cowards....Thank you! wouldn't want to be a man and leave your name to get some in return.....hahahahahahaha


booooo boooo booooed off the floor! I am sure you :p had a much better post!

GeorgiaZagFan
02-19-2009, 07:57 PM
I know basketball is the ultimate team game but when Pargo plays well and makes good decisions the Zags can beat almost anyone. That first meeting vs. UConn was all but won and JP played well. By him being the threat that he can be it opens up the other players to succeed as well.

Reborn
02-19-2009, 07:59 PM
The NCAA tournament is not an event where you look at probablilities and statistics. So, it's not important to me whether we have a 50% chance of beating these teams in the tournament. To think that way is too logical, and we must remember the tournament is called, and rightly so, MARCH MADNESS.

One Key is where the game is played. I think with most of the teams on that list Zags have a good team of beating many of them. I think we'll just have to wait and see who we play, and where we play them. One game at a time.
The teams on that list look like 1,2's and 3's. I hope we go in as a 5 so that would give us a different list for the 2nd round. If we are a 6 seed and had to go against a 3 and take Missouri first, then Kansas, then Duke. I also am confident against Louisville. We could hang very close with Michigan State but we have not fared well against Big 10 teams in the tournament. I'd also like to play Memphis again if they become a 2 seed. I think we can beat them under different circumstances. The second time you play a team it's very different.

If we go the 4 vs 5 route and beat someone like Illinois, or let's say the Huskies and have to play a one seed I'd like to play Oklahoma. We played them last year and lost to them by one point I think at their gym.

former1dog
02-19-2009, 08:45 PM
Only if we played them, Abe. :D

demian
02-19-2009, 10:58 PM
here is my answer

1. Pitt. Under 50% chance of winning. Blair would kill JH. We couldnt stop Sam Young or Levance Fields. We would really struggle to score. Rebounding would be tough as well.

2. UNC. Under 50% chance of winning. Carolina is a way better team than us this year.

3. UConn. Above 50% chance of winning. See Battle in Seattle. We should have beaten them in that game. We would have a good chance of beating them again.

4. Oklahoma. Under 50% chance of winning. Blake Griffin would kill JH. I would predict Griffin for a 40 point 23 rebound 7 block shot performance. Willie Warren would light us up from 3 point range.

5. Memphis. Under 50% chance of winning. Just a real bad matchup.

6. Kansas. Abouve 50% chance of winning. I dont know a thing about them. Based on GU bias alone I give us above 50% chance of winning.

7. Duke. Above 50% chance of winning. This would be a really fun matchup and a great game to watch.

8. Mizzou. Above 50% chance of winning. I dont know a thing about them. Based on GU bias alone I give us above 50% chance of winning.

9. Michigan State. Above 50% chance of winning. I am not that impressed with MSU as a top 10 team.

10. Louisville. Under 50% chance of winning. Too athletic. I dont think we could hang with these guys.

Well that puts me at predicting 5 teams with abouve 50% chance of winning and 5 teams with under 50% chance of beating. That is not a bad situation to be in. But Zags need to stay on task and take care of whoever they play in round 1 so we can play one of these teams on this list.


WHo among these teams would our Zags have a better than 50% chance of beating. These are the best 10 teams heading for the post season in my opinion. It's not "could" we beat them. I already KNOW we could. Would any of us have better than 50% confidence that we really would beat anyone on this list? I'm just curious. Does anyone think we would have beat them after the first 7 games? How about now? Might say a lot about our post season chances. Nobody knows the answer. I don't.


1 Pittsburgh
118.41 24-2 (11-2)
2 North Carolina
115.96 24-2 (10-2)
3 Connecticut
113.89 24-2 (12-2)
4 Oklahoma
112.84 25-1 (11-0)
5 Memphis
110.35 23-3 (11-0)
6 Kansas
105.67 21-5 (10-1)
7 Duke
105.06 20-5 (7-4)
8 Missouri
105.04 22-4 (9-2)
9 Michigan State
104.14 20-5 (10-3)
10 Louisville

kitzbuel
02-20-2009, 04:54 AM
Liking the new red REP! So all you anonymous cowards....Thank you! wouldn't want to be a man and leave your name to get some in return.....hahahahahahaha


booooo boooo booooed off the floor! I am sure you :p had a much better post!

My neg rep wasn't anonymous.

Zagsker
02-20-2009, 05:57 AM
4. Oklahoma. Under 50% chance of winning. Blake Griffin would kill JH. I would predict Griffin for a 40 point 23 rebound 7 block shot performance. Willie Warren would light us up from 3 point range.



Defensively I think Griffin would shut down Josh.........but I think Josh would do a very solid job on Griffin defensively as well

LongIslandZagFan
02-20-2009, 06:08 AM
Personally the only two teams on that list that would truly make me nervous are Memphis and Pitt. All others they could hang with and realistically beat.

Zagsker
02-20-2009, 06:12 AM
Personally the only two teams on that list that would truly make me nervous are Memphis and Pitt. All others they could hang with and realistically beat.

Pretty much my feelings as well

DixieZag
02-20-2009, 09:04 AM
An entirely separate question is whether the team feels that they can beat any of these teams on any given date. I hope so, I hope they are confident, I believe they can, but I wonder about the PTSD after Memphis, or will that experience help us? Who knows? That is why we watch. I think our win at Portland was just as impressive as our win at WSU or OSC, that team was primed to finally get over the hump after years of being beaten down and played as well as they could, they had their community behind them, a big game for GU against Memphis looming, and yet our guys focused and won. I wish they would see that winning THAT game, was as good a win as a BCS school winning at home to a 22nd ranked also BCS mediocre team, like UCLA did to the UW last night. Portland also beat UW.

cbbfanatic
02-20-2009, 10:08 AM
An entirely separate question is whether the team feels that they can beat any of these teams on any given date. I hope so, I hope they are confident, I believe they can, but I wonder about the PTSD after Memphis, or will that experience help us? Who knows? That is why we watch. I think our win at Portland was just as impressive as our win at WSU or OSC, that team was primed to finally get over the hump after years of being beaten down and played as well as they could, they had their community behind them, a big game for GU against Memphis looming, and yet our guys focused and won. I wish they would see that winning THAT game, was as good a win as a BCS school winning at home to a 22nd ranked also BCS mediocre team, like UCLA did to the UW last night. Portland also beat UW.

i dont think many people in the world of college basketball would equate beating UW at home to winning AT portland. come on now, they arent even close. i also dont agree that UW is a mediocre bcs team, theyre leading the pac ten, and are a MUCH different team than when they lost to portland in their first game - which leads to another point, i think many people on here discount the idea that most teams, especially the more talented high majors, get much better and progress throughout the year.

playing uconn in december is NOT the same as playing them in february or march, for example

vaboris
02-20-2009, 01:10 PM
Defensively I think Griffin would shut down Josh.........but I think Josh would do a very solid job on Griffin defensively as well

Since no one else in the nation can stop this guy - all of a sudden JH can?

Come on man... lol

whatazag
02-20-2009, 01:30 PM
Since no one else in the nation can stop this guy - all of a sudden JH can?

Come on man... lol

I think Josh could do a solid job on him. I realize Griffin is on another level from anyone else, but the Zags have done at excellent job at shutting down opposing bigs this year, some of which have been very talented, and Josh is the main reason. I think he would get killed on the boards though.

theirishzag03
02-20-2009, 03:16 PM
I think Josh could do a solid job on him. I realize Griffin is on another level from anyone else, but the Zags have done at excellent job at shutting down opposing bigs this year, some of which have been very talented, and Josh is the main reason. I think he would get killed on the boards though.

I think Josh could hold his own, as long as he didn't try and draw tons of charges! If Josh got a dunk or tip jam or blocked a shot early we could see a heck of a matchup.