Gonzaga Vs Arizona - Game prediction

[johnwzag]

I looked at numbers on Arizona. I wish I had a chance to actually see Arizona play. I should probably check youtube. I may revise this early assesment.

Arizona main threats....

#13 Nic Wise G 5'10" 177lbs Jr 13.4 ppg 6 reb 16-36-44.4% 3 point 3.1 ast.

Match ups - Pargo, Meech will prevent Wise from getting 44% from 3. He will be lucky if he gets 33%.

43 Jordan Hill F 6'10" 235lbs Jr 18.4 ppg 12.5 reb

Match ups - JH, Rob, AD will prevent Hill from getting 18 points down low with blocks from Austin and Josh and our quick guards preventing the inside pass to him. Jordon has yet to see this season a team with the height and quickness of the Gonzaga. He will not be able to block us out of the paint either. He will be very busy and very tired by the second half.

34 Chase Budinger 6'7" 218lbs Jr 19.4 ppg 6.1 reb 22-37 59.5% 3 point

This guy is a dangerious weapon. Matchup will be against: Daye, Micah, Matt and Steven throughout the game. AD and Micah can contest the 3 very well against Budinger and he has yet to see that kind of defense this season.

Here is a another guy that has not got a lot of points, but has the potential to if we don't play good D:

2 Zane Johnson 6-5 204 So 4.2 points 7-15 46.7% 3 point

I don't think he will be a factor, but may put up a few shots.

Looking at who we played and they played...

GU RPI 1 SOS 1
11-18 Idaho 3-5 (0-0) 162 80-46 W
$ 11-27 Oklahoma St. 5-3 (0-0) 57 83-71 W
$$ 11-28 at Maryland 6-2 (0-0) 16 81-59 W
$ 11-30 at Tennessee 6-1 (0-0) 35 83-74 W
12-06 at Indiana 4-4 (0-0) 103 70-54 W
12-10 at Washington St. 6-3 (0-0) 145 74-52 W

AZ RPI 133 SOS 224
11-17 Florida Atlantic 3-5 (0-0) 258 75-62 W
11-18 UAB 5-3 (0-0) 27 71-72 L
11-24 Miss. Valley St. 0-9 (0-0) 264 86-52 W
11-25 Santa Clara 3-4 (0-0) 192 69-66 W
11-30 Northern Arizona 1-5 (0-0) 241 74-57 W
12-02 Loyola Marymnt 0-8 (0-0) 284 84-57 W
? 12-05 at Texas A&M 6-1 (0-0) 121 66-67 L
$ 12-10 San Diego St. 5-2 (0-0) 51 69-56 W

NOTE: I would put Texas A&M ahead of SDSU.

Opposition shooting

Gonzaga
TEAM FG 3P
MSB 32.7 26.3
IDA 29.8 31.3
OKS 37.3 37.5
MD 37.3 7.7
TENN 35.5 29.2
IU 30.4 36.8
WSU 32.7 10.5

AZ
TEAM FG 3P
FAU 41.1 22.2
UAB 34.5 10.5
SCU 53.2 44.5 *
NAU 42.1 21.1
LMU 33.3 36.4
TA&M 47.1 45.0 *
SDSU 34.9 19.2


AZ 74.3 points 12.4 TO per game. 34.6 reb 17.1 As
GU 79.1 points 12.6 TO per game 39.6 reb 16.1 As

W-L PF PA HOME ROAD STK
GON 7-0 79.1 58.3 2-0 1-0 W7
UA 6-2 74.3 61.1 6-1 0-1 W1

JWZ prediction: GU win 84-61

[former1dog]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-m5fwjjob4

[Nevtelen]

I think Hill is going to be a real problem. I've watched 3 of their games now this season (UAB, SDSU the other night, and @ A&M). Hill is better than Josh in the post, though he doesn't have the range Josh does (his mid-range game looks pretty good, though). The interior match-up is going to be HUGE. Hill is a type of player I don't think this team has seen this year yet. Like I posted elsewhere, if Josh has to sit because of fouls, Hill might eat Sacre and will definitely eat Foster for lunch.

I also think the Zags need to do something they haven't done much of yet - draw fouls. That means shoot fewer outside jumpers and get inside more, either on the drive or in the post. Arizona has very little quality depth beyond their big 3. When Wise had to sit because of foul trouble (he was totally out of control on several drives and had a few charges) and then fouled out with 6 or so minutes to go in the A&M game, Zona just totally collapsed like a house of cards. They have no reasonable back-up at PG. Get Wise out of there and GU will be coasting through this game.

I also think (as reflected by the stats) this will be GU's sternest test as far as perimiter D goes. Budinger is long and bouncy and can really really stroke it. Micah (our best bet) and Daye (he gives up the speed, but wins on length) and Gray (tenacious, but can be shot over) need to be hounding Budinger the whole game and Pargo and Meech (especially) really need to hound the guards.

[BigTymeONIONS]

I believe Hill will have a big game against the Zags. Heytvelt may be the only one who can guard him consistently. Daye is not strong enough and Rob will foul out quickly if he tries to guard him. Heytvelt must stay out of foul trouble early on.

Budinger on the other hand will be slowed by mainly Micah but also Bouldin and Gray. Micah matches up well on the defensive end with Budinger and I believe he'll have trouble with Micah's length and quickness.

Watch for a big game from Jordan Hill but Zags still prevail 75-65.

[Sacto]

I don't think UA has seen the kind of defense that will be in their face on Sunday. I don't think Hill has seen anyone close to Josh, partcularly on the three teams you cite as having watched. (He should have those kind of numbers against that kind of competition)I don't think Hill can guard Josh, and I don't think they have an answer for Daye. If they put CB on Daye, they will get chewed up inside on dribble drive penetration and kick outs. Wise is there point guard averaging 3 assists, we should win this game going away.

[Areyoukiddingme]

I'm not worried about this game. After watching the zags take it to the Cougs we should be ready for this game.

[Rubbadub]

Zags, 82-66

[ZagLawGrad]

Too mature, too athletic, too hungry...

Zags by 20+

[rennis]

We will score points on this team, no doubt about it. I think final 87-72 Zags.

[ZagManFan]

I say it again, this game scares me. Big win over Wazzu and UConn in the wings. Plus on the road.

I am just happy with ANY win.

Zags 86 Arizona 83

[Zags-Bsee]

Has Arizona played ANYONE good, let alone great?

Our guys seem to figure out eventually, we are just much more talented overall.

And the teams we play, figure it out as well, and lose motivation.

Our defense crushes their spirit and our offense always seems to catch fire.

Anything can happen, but our guys continue to grow confidence in how good they are as a team. I hope they don't get over confident.

[johnwzag]

Zags 86 Arizona 83

The only teams AZ has scored in the 80's against are an 0-9 and a 0-8 team.
You think they will score in the 80's against Gonzaga defense?

[75Zag]

Rebounds

At times this year, GU has rebounded like the junior varsity girls team at St. Al's elementary. If I want to think about a worst case scenario, I could see Hill getting 20 points and 20 rebounds and bad things happening to GU.

But since I am in a positive mood tonight, I say GU by 8.

[bigblahla]

I have to believe that the Zags will figure the Cats out and like the WSU game pull away.

It starts with the "D", agreed Hill is active and athletic but don't sell big Rob short his guarding of the rim has been great so far when you consider how little practice time he's had comparatively. He's moving his feet and staying grounded, not biting on the pump fake, and positioning his body well for blocking out and rebounding.

We stop Wise and we stop Arizona.

It might take us awhile or we might blow up right out of the box but you have to believe we have the fire power to get to the mid-eighties on this team unless Coach calls them off.

The Zags have another gear and when fully engaged we become dominant.

As Josh said we bend teams to our will.

Zags win 84-68

[Reborn]

Whenever Gonzaga and Arizona play it's a great game. I see another one. It's going to be fun too with a lot of offense. Let's go for 82 to 71. Daye lights 'em up for 23 pts and has a great game. Once again we are just too deep for them to run with us for 4 full quarters. They tire down the stretch and we pull away from a close game in the last 5 minutes.

I'm excited to see Josh against Hill. Hill can really jump and is very athletic. But will he be able to stay out of foul trouble? We may see more Zone because of Hill's athleticism. I also think Pargo vs Wise is going to be a good one to watch. Wise is a veteran, and knows how to run a team. He also has a good jump shot.

What I like about our team of Redemption is that I don't think we've ever beaten Arizona. They've beaten us a few times and all were very close. And maybe THE BEST MARCH MADNESS TOURNAMENT GAME OF ALL TIME was GU vs Arizona in our double overtime loss. We need to get this one guys because WE CAN. This is the year WE CAN. Lets just go and and DO IT.

REDEMPTION