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MickMick
08-01-2008, 07:07 PM
Is it Davidson's turn? (http://ballinisahabit.blogspot.com/2008/07/who-you-callin-mid-major.html)

Davidson: the next Gonzaga? (http://www.davidsoncats.com/viewtopic.php?t=6492)

Note: Gonzaga (as usual) is the "baseline measure" for such matters.

wazZag
08-01-2008, 07:20 PM
I guess Gonzaga should take it as a compliment. A lot of folks get bent out of shape with comparisons (e.g., "Steven Gray is like Ray Allen" or "Morrison reminds me of Larry Bird") but ultimately, it's not about the two compared subjects being equal it's about them being similar in some respects. I recall threads where this board has discussed "what zag do you play like" or similar themes. I doubt anyone believed that they were a shred of the player they compared themselves to. I think the same analysis holds true to the "_____ is the next ____." I recall hearing Harold Miner was the next Michael Jordan, but I digress.

Is Davidson or George Mason the next Gonzaga? Probably not, but the bottom line is, it's a good feeling to be the "standard" to which the other is compared. I think I'm turning the corner towards believing that it's a compliment in hiding.

ZagNative
08-01-2008, 08:17 PM
Of course, last year about this time I started a thread about this subject (http://www.guboards.spokesmanreview.com/showthread.php?t=3987), and that thread linked a story about George Mason (http://www.newsobserver.com/122/story/423705.html) and whether it would become the next "Gonzaga." The standards set up in that story, I think, are essential to earning that label. It's not about one season, or even about a great TV package the following season after a great NCAA tournament run.

It's about Sustained Excellence and Success over Time.

(I just noticed: No wonder the George Mason story is such a good read. It's by our old friend the AP's Nicholas K. Geranios.)


If the experience of former upstart Gonzaga is any sign, the Virginia college could cash in its Cinderella slipper for some serious bling.

After eight straight trips to the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga has seen everything from tickets to T-shirts soar in popularity. Enrollment and donations are up. The school built a posh new basketball arena. Sales of licensed products like clothes and souvenirs have soared 1,200 percent since 1999, when the Bulldogs reached the regional final.

But it takes more than one great run in the tournament, Gonzaga coach Mark Few warns.
There have been many small conference teams that made it to the NCAA Tournament, and then faded back to obscurity.

Gonzaga is somewhat unusual in maintaining a high level for nearly a decade. It has become a fixture in the Top 25, is able to lure teams like Stanford and Virginia to Spokane, and has had all of its games televised for several years. In February, Dick Vitale and the crew of ESPN Game Day broadcast from its campus. They recruit nationally.IMO, teams should claim the mantle of the next Gonzaga cautiously. The last "next Gonzaga," after all, from the 2006 Final Four George Mason team, didn't make it back to the tournament in 2007 and lost the first round when it did make it back in 2008.




George Mason's NCAA Tourney record from 1999 - 2008:
Year Seed School Coach Result
1999 14 George Mason Jim Larranaga Round of 64
2001 14 George Mason Jim Larranaga Round of 64
2006 11 George Mason Jim Larranaga Final Four
2008 12 George Mason Jim Larranaga Round of 64

Davidson's Record:

2002 13 Davidson Bob McKillop Round of 64
2006 15 Davidson Bob McKillop Round of 64
2007 13 Davidson Bob McKillop Round of 64
2008 10 Davidson Bob McKillop Elite 8

Gonzaga's record:

1999 10 Gonzaga Dan Monson Elite 8
2000 10 Gonzaga Mark Few Sweet 16
2001 12 Gonzaga Mark Few Sweet 16
2002 6 Gonzaga Mark Few Round of 64
2003 9 Gonzaga Mark Few Round of 32
2004 2 Gonzaga Mark Few Round of 32
2005 3 Gonzaga Mark Few Round of 32
2006 3 Gonzaga Mark Few Sweet 16
2007 10 Gonzaga Mark Few Round of 64
2008 7 Gonzaga Mark Few Round of 64

Then you have to look at Season win/Loss Records (How many 20+ win seasons)

Regular Season Championships

Conference Tournament Titles

How many seasons in Top 25 polls

SOS rankings, season after season

All-Americans

Players to the NBA

Come back with all that, and we'll talk ...

I love coach McKillop, so we'll see .. we'll see ...

krozman
08-01-2008, 08:37 PM
I don't know, I guess I don't see the connection between Davidson and Gonzaga until they go to two more straight sweet 16's, followed by 7 more NCAA appearances without the stars that brought them there in the first place.

Gonzaga fans talk about "which Gonzaga team was the best" over the last 15 years. Davidson has "other than last year, what Davidson team was the 2nd best."

Thats the difference. I wish them luck.

Butler Guy
08-02-2008, 05:27 AM
Last year was the first time since 1969 Davidson won a NCAA game. Was Kent State the "next Gonzaga" when it went to the Elite 8 in 2002?

Davidson has a LONG WAY to go to even be considered in the upper echelon of non-BCS conference teams, much less something transcendental.

ZagNative
08-02-2008, 06:49 AM
Without meaning to be too defensive about our right to continue as the Gonzaga of the Gonzagas, I have all these dang stats accumulated, and recruiting season seems like a good time to let it all hang out about just how amazing we've been the past ten years.

NCAA Tournament Appearances: Gonzaga's showed up in the Dance each and every year for the past ten years. How many other teams can say the same thing? Only these seven:
Duke
Kansas
Michigan State
Kentucky
Texas
Arizona
Wisconsin
NCAA Tournament Wins:In the past ten years, Gonzaga's won 12 games at the Dance. Who's won more than 12? Only these 13 teams:

Team Wins
Duke 26
Kansas 25
Michigan State 24
Florida 22
UConn 22
North Carolina 20
UCLA 19
Kentucky 17
Maryland 17
Texas 16
Arizona 15
Illinois 15
Wisconsin 14
Win/Loss Record Over the Past Ten Years: Gonzaga has had ten straight 23 or more win/loss records. How many can match that? I don't know the exact number, but it's just a few.

years wins Losses
98-99 24 6
99-00 24 8
00-01 23 6
01-02 28 3
02-03 23 8
03-04 27 2
04-05 25 4
05-06 27 3
06-07 23 10
07-08 25 7
249 57
Gonzaga's Regular Season Win/Loss Record over the Past Ten years against BCS and the A-10 Schools:
Conference Wins Losses
A-10 6 3
ACC 7 2
Big East 2 1
Big 10 1 4
Big 12 6 5
PAC-10 18 8
SEC 2 5
Totals 42 28
If that Win/Loss Record Against ACC schools since 1999 surprises you, as it did me, read 'em and weep. (The number in parentheses represent the school's RPI rank per Kenpom at the time of the game.):
Date School Result W/L
12/17/02 NC St. Gonzaga 69, (53) North Carolina St. 60 W
12/06/03 Maryland Gonzaga 82, (18) Maryland 68 W
12/18/04 Georgia Tech. Gonzaga 85, (27) Georgia Tech 73 W
11/21/05 Maryland Gonzaga 88, (49) Maryland 76 W
12/17/05 Virginia Gonzaga 80, (80) Virginia 69 W
11/22/06 North Carolina Gonzaga 82, (3) North Carolina 74 W
12/21/06 Duke (15) Duke 61, Gonzaga 54 L
01/03/07 Virginia (55) Virginia 108, Gonzaga 87 L
11/24/07 Virg. Tech. Gonzaga 82, (71) Virginia Tech 64 W
Note: The info above was collected pretty much by hook or by crook, so if you spot anything that looks wrong to you, I'd be happy if you'd point it out so I can check my data and make corrections if need be.

MickMick
08-02-2008, 07:32 AM
Way to add the exclamation point ZN!

With respect to convincing arguments (backed up by quantitative values), you just have the knack.......

MDABE80
08-02-2008, 11:15 AM
ZN hung out with lawyers too many years;)

ZagNative
08-02-2008, 11:35 AM
ZN hung out with lawyers too many years;)Yes, but fortunately, she's been retired a couple of years now, and her liver has made a near-full recovery.

Still got an itchy trigger finger for an interesting research project or two from time to time, though ...

thespywhozaggedme
08-02-2008, 12:29 PM
Yes, but fortunately, she's been retired a couple of years now, and her liver has made a near-full recovery.

Still got an itchy trigger finger for an interesting research project or two from time to time, though ...

You're a woman!??! I would never have guessed. Gotta love the anonymity of message boards. :)

ZagNative
08-02-2008, 01:24 PM
Yeah, spy. I deliberately chose a gender-neutral name so the boys on GUboards wouldn't be quick to knock me out of the tree fort, but then El Voce outed me one time after I had met him in person. I coulda socked him! Now he insists I wear my pink feather boa to guboards events so I can't sneak unnoticed into the good-old-boys club pre-functions.

I realize most women have better sense that to be so obsessed about sports. But I hate shopping, love college basketball. What's a girl to do?

There's a reason I've posted my favorite graphic more than once on this board:

http://i237.photobucket.com/albums/ff232/ZagNative/Junk/Nobodyknowsyoureadog.jpg

ZagNative
08-02-2008, 02:11 PM
I mentioned the Zags record the past ten years getting players to the NBA. Many, many schools have long histories of success doing just that, but looking at the past ten years, basketballreference.com (http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/colleges.cgi?college=gonzaga) offers some interesting statistics. (I click on the "From" column and disregard anything before 1999, which is the time period I'm interested in:

Some comparisons:

Gonzaga:
Player From To Games Mins.
Dan Dickau 2003 2008 300 4617
Richie Frahm 2004 2008 140 1473
Ronny Turiaf 2006 2008 173 2706
Adam Morrison 2007 2007 78 2326

Xavier:
mes Posey 2000 2008 663 18550
David West 2004 2008 303 8778
Torraye Braggs 2004 2005 22 178
Lionel Chalmers 2005 2005 36 433

Marquette:
Steve Novak 2007 2008 70 455
Travis Diener 2006 2008 115 1890
Dwyane Wade 2004 2008 315 11877

Memphis (No, I'm not tacking Calipari's UMass stats on here):
Darius Washington 2008 2008 18 146
Shawne Williams 2007 2008 111 1523
Rodney Carney 2007 2008 137 2208
Earl Barron 2006 2008 82 1137
Antonio Burks 2005 2006 81 789
Dajuan Wagner 2003 2007 103 2202
And, Yes. I'm deliberately omitting Arizona, which includes 14 names (a number of big timers); Michigan State, which not surprisingly has twice as many as we do. Tennessee, which spent much of that time period pre-Pearl, only has three, and all three have pretty minimal tenures.

GoZags
08-02-2008, 04:13 PM
You're a woman!??! I would never have guessed. Gotta love the anonymity of message boards. :)

I can think of a few posters that you (and others) probably believe are guys as well.

ZagNative
08-03-2008, 12:19 PM
Back on message, looking at the handful of teams (13) who have more wins during the NCAA tournament than we do (12), I was a bit surprised to see Arizona with only three more wins than we have. After all, we've taken hits on that over time. Could that about Arizona be right? Yup, it is right. Arizona has not fared much better than we have, but for that one pesky game they lost in the semi-final against Duke. We got to get us one of those!

On the other hand, they were a double-digit seed only once during that period, while the Zags earned their record with four double-digit seeds. The seed of the final opponent precedes the name of that team.

Arizona:

Year Seed Team Finish Won Lost to Score
1999 4 Arizona Round of 64 0 13 Oklahoma L 61-60
2000 1 Arizona Round of 32 1 8 Wisconsin L 66-59
2001 2 Arizona Runnerup 5 1 Duke L 82-72
2002 3 Arizona Sweet 16 2 2 Oklahoma L 88-67
2003 1 Arizona Elite 8 3 2 Kansas L 78-75
2004 9 Arizona Round of 64 0 8 Seton Hall L 80-76
2005 3 Arizona Elite 8 3 1 Illinois L 90-89
2006 8 Arizona Round of 32 1 1 Villanova L 82-78
2007 8 Arizona Round of 64 0 9 Purdue L 63-72
2008 10 Arizona Round of 64 0 7 West Virginia L 75-65


Gonzaga:
Year Seed Team Finish Won Lost to Score
1999 10 Gonzaga Elite 8 3 1 UConn 67-62
2000 10 Gonzaga Sweet 16 2 6 Purdue 75-66
2001 12 Gonzaga Sweet 16 2 1 Michigan St. 77-62
2002 6 Gonzaga Round of 64 0 11 Wyoming 73-66
2003 9 Gonzaga Round of 32 1 1 Arizona 96-95
2004 2 Gonzaga Round of 32 1 10 Nevada 91-72
2005 3 Gonzaga Round of 32 1 6 Texas Tech 71-69
2006 3 Gonzaga Sweet 16 2 2 UCLA 73-71
2007 10 Gonzaga Round of 64 0 7 Indiana 70-57
2008 7 Gonzaga Round of 64 0 10 Davidson 75-82