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zagfan24
07-02-2008, 08:25 PM
Curious to hear thoughts on the extended 3-point line and how it will affect various Zag players...based on their strength, where they typically spot up from, and the amount of work put in this summer.

I feel like we played a pre-season game or two with the new line last year, but I could be wrong...

CDC84
07-02-2008, 10:23 PM
Gray, Daye, and Downs have unlimited range. Business as usual. It'll be interesting to see how it will effect the amount of 3 pointers Josh puts up. I suspect you won't see Bouldin or Pargo putting up as many threes....not only because they were hot and cold when shooting from the old three point line, but also because they have to so much to gain by driving the ball and cutting to the basket with all the new space that will be opened up inside the arc.

ZagNative
07-11-2008, 10:10 AM
Andy Katz had a column up today, in which Austin Daye was quoted:

Is one foot back on the 3-point line a step forward for NCAA hoops?

AKRON, Ohio -- One after the other, the 3-point shots were off the mark. It was just a drill with some of the top college guards in the country at the LeBron James Skills Academy.

It doesn't mean much since it was just a random Tuesday in early July. But throughout the drill, a few players glanced down to make sure they were behind the right 3-point line -- the new 3-point line, one that is a foot farther back than it has been.

Next season, the 3-point line will move from 19 feet, 9 inches to 20 feet, 9 inches. That by itself could be an issue for plenty of players, regardless of position. But making the issue more confusing, the women didn't move their line back. So, in the majority of arenas, where the men and women play on the same court, there will be two lines marking the 3-point line, as was the case at Akron's Rhodes Arena earlier this week.

"It's hard to tell what line you're behind when you're pulling up," said Gonzaga sophomore wing Austin Daye. "It's hard to look down, so you have to have the instinct to know where you are."

Akron's women's 3-point line was the traditional black that matched the outline of the lane. The new 3-point line was white.

"It's very distracting," said South Carolina junior guard Devan Downey. "We're one of those schools where the men and women play on the same court, so you've got to be mentally ready. If you take the 3, you need to make sure you're taking the new one, not the old 3. You don't want to hit a big shot and it's a 2, not a 3."

Arizona State sophomore guard James Harden said he believes some shooters might adjust their form for the longer shot. But I thought this Luke Winn SI.Com Column (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/luke_winn/06/19/three.point/index.html) from June was more interesting, mentioning as it did how some of our upcoming foes this season and foes from last season have fared shooting and defending threes:

How the new three-point line will affect the game

1. Mid-Majors Will Be Hit The Hardest.

In the narrow context of upsets -- particularly in NCAA-tournament opening-round games -- the three has long been considered the Great Equalizer for David against Goliath. But have we considered how many of the nation's best mid-majors take a season-long approach that's focused on the three-pointer?

Of the 65 teams in last year's NCAA tournament field, these 10 relied on treys for the highest percentage of their points across the entire season:


Highest Reliance on Three-Pointers / NCAA tournament teams
(National Rank in parentheses. Data from kenpom.com)
Team %3pt(Rk.) %2pt(Rk.) %FT(Rk.)
1. Butler 40.9 (8) 39.1 (336) 20.0 (185)
2. Belmont 39.5 (12) 42.4 (323) 18.1 (273)
3. Drake 38.4 (19) 41.2 (330) 20.4 (161)
4. Portland St. 36.8 (29) 44.7 (305) 18.6 (255)
5. American 36.4 (35) 40.9 (332) 22.6 (55)
6. Davidson 34.4 (47) 50.7 (179) 15.0 (336)
7. Oregon 34.2 (50) 47.3 (273) 18.6 (254)
8. Georgetown 34.1 (54) 49.5 (212) 16.4 (319)
9. Vanderbilt 33.4 (64) 45.9 (298) 20.7 (146)
10. BYU 33.1 (66) 48.1 (251) 18.7 (248)The top six in the chart above is essentially a collection of many of the nation's best mid-majors. Such a three-point-centric approach makes sense -- size is a scarce commodity that tends to be snatched up by powerhouses, and the smartest little guys often stay competitive on a national level by building collections of shooters who were undervalued on the recruiting trail. At times last season Butler put a lineup of five three-point threats -- seniors Julian Betko, Pete Campbell, A.J. Graves, Mike Green and Drew Streicher -- on the floor and patiently waited for its best look from beyond the arc.

None of these teams are going to abandon the three. As Stevens said, "the really good shooters, who were already making 40 percent, will still be able to make them." But with coaches likely to be more judicious about which players are green-lighted, can a scoring model with more than 35 percent of points coming on tret teams, beginning with UNC, who relied on tys still be effective over the long-term?
2. The Two Main National Title Contenders are Insulated.

Below are the 10 NCAA tournament teams, beginning with UNC, who relied on the three the least in '08-09:

Lowest Reliance on Three-Pointers / NCAA tournament teams
(National Rank in parentheses. Data from kenpom.com)
Team %3pt (Rk.) %2pt (Rk.) %FT (Rk.)
1. N. Carolina 18.8 (337) 59.9 (5) 21.4 (99)
2. UConn 19.7 (336) 54.8 (75) 25.5 (5)
3. Coppin St. 20.7 (330) 56.2 (42) 23.1 (36)
4. Mich. St. 20.9 (327) 60.1 (4) 19.0 (234)
5. UCLA 21.8 (321) 57.3 (22) 20.8 (139)
6. San Diego 22.1 (318) 58.4 (10) 19.5 (212)
7. Miss.V.St. 22.4 (313) 53.9 (99) 23.7 (20)
8. Stanford 23.4 (299) 55.0 (63) 21.6 (84)
9. Arkansas 23.9 (286) 56.2 (40) 19.8 (195)
10. USC 24.2 (278) 55.9 (48) 19.9 (189)
3. There's Now More Space For Low-Percentage Two-Point Attempts -- and Defenses That Force the Most of These Will Thrive.

In a study published on Basketball Prospectus in February, Ken Pomeroy analyzed shot distance, frequency and accuracy from nearly 4,000 games over the previous five seasons. The two key things to take away from his findings: That there's significantly less accuracy on twos taken beyond five feet than there is on close threes; and that, to quote Ken, "Teams taking mid-range shots -- especially early in the shot clock -- are just making life easy for the defense more often than not."

The teams that already understand how to take away threes and force twos without fouling -- suggesting that many of those twos are taken in the mid-range, rather than the paint -- are probably best-suited to use the extra space to their advantage. The two best examples are Duke and UCLA, both of whom ranked below 250th in both percentage of threes and free-throws allowed last season. (As a result, Duke finished ninth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and UCLA finished third.) The key question for both of them this season will be whether the extra foot that their defenses extend on the perimeter opens up too many easy scoring chances in the paint. If they can limit the damage and stick to their old strategy, they should thrive.

Here are the 10 NCAA tournament teams from last season that allowed the lowest percentage of their points on treys:
Lowest Percentage of Points Allowed on Threes / NCAA tournament teams
(National Rank in parentheses. Data from kenpom.com)
Team %3pt (Rk.) %2pt (Rk.) %FT (Rk.)
Duke 21.2 (337) 60.4 (2) 18.4 (257)
St. Mary's 21.4 (336) 59.3 (4) 19.3 (213)
Clemson 21.7 (333) 58.2 (6) 20.1 (180)
Marquette 23.5 (318) 53.4 (92) 23.1 (50)
Memphis 24.0 (314) 56.1 (25) 19.9 (189)
Miss. V. St. 24.1 (312) 56.3 (20) 19.6 (199)
Mt St. Mary's 24.3 (307) 53.7 (82) 22.0 (86)
Arizona 24.5 (301) 57.4 (10) 18.0 (264)
UCLA 24.6 (299) 59.6 (3) 15.8 (323)
Western Ky. 24.7 (298) 48.7 (245) 26.6 (3)Question: Where are we in this mess? Where will we fit in and what needs shoring up?

gbnyba17
07-11-2008, 07:21 PM
Good research ZN. i feel our perimeter players often help down low in times where a double isnt even needed, which naturally opens up shooters. on top of it i dont think our guys ever rotate that well, which inevitably leads to wide open threes. i always find myself yelling at games or yelling at the tv and wonder how long this will continue...?? or maybe im just dead wrong, anyone?

SLOZag
07-15-2008, 10:18 AM
It looks like OJ Mayo is practicing his 3-point shooting just in case:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ap-grizzlies-mayo&prov=ap&type=lgns

:D

ZagNut08
07-15-2008, 10:45 AM
Shooting aside, it will impact the zags even more defensively, imo.

If they stick to the 2-3 zone the seem to love so much, it will be that much tougher to rotate on players and jump out to the corners to defend the 3

We always seem to be a second late in rotating, so this added court spacing likely won't help our cause on defense. Hopefully this is what it takes for the staff to stop using the zone so much