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RenoZag
04-30-2008, 07:46 PM
Post Position—Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Morning-Line Odds

1 Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux, Nick Zito, 20-1

2 Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa, Barclay Tagg, 15-1

3 Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano, Nick Zito, 30-1

4 Court Vision, Garrett Gomez, Bill Mott, 20-1

5 Eight Belles (f), Gabriel Saez, Larry Jones, 15-1

6 Z Fortune, Robby Albarado, Steve Asmussen, 30-1

7 Big Truck, Javier Catellano, Barclay Tagg, 50-1

8 Visionaire, Jose Lezcano, Michael Matz, 20-1

9 Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan, Steve Asmussen, 6-1

10 Colonel John, Corey Nakatani, Eoin Harty, 4-1

11 Z Humor, Rene Douglas, Bill Mott, 30-1

12 Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz, Bennie Stutts Jr., 20-1

13 Bob Jack Black, Rich Migliore, James Kasparoff, 20-1

14 Monba, Ramon Dominguez, Todd Pletcher, 15-1

15 Adriano, Edgar Prado, Graham Motion, 30-1

16 Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel, David Carroll, 20-1

17 Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 20-1

18 Recapturetheglory, E.T. Baird, Louie Roussel, 20-1

19 Gayego, Mike Smith, Paulo Lobo, 15-1

20 Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux, Rick Dutrow Jr., 3-1


(f) - filly Carries 121 pounds; All other horses carry 126 pounds.

RenoZag
04-30-2008, 08:13 PM
I liked

http://channels.bloodhorse.com/images/content/BigBrown_workout050108_AE298.jpg

Big Brown before he drew that outside PP. . .time to start handicapping !

RenoZag
05-02-2008, 05:35 AM
http://www.churchilldownsincorporated.com/images/KentuckyDerby134.jpg

HillBillyZag
05-02-2008, 07:53 AM
IMHO it will be Colonel John, Big Brown and the filly, Eight Belles. But I would put a few bucks on Court Vision because of the name. Wonder if that is Patino's horse? Nope, just looked it up. Another horse I like real well is Pyro, who is out of AP Indy who was out of Seattle Slew. Good lines there!

RenoZag
05-02-2008, 08:05 PM
Sooner or later you have to make a choice and stick with it. . .the Derby's so damn hard to handicap anymore. . .it has almost become: What chalk do I key on top of my exactas and which long shots go underneath ??

There are only four horses with at least two 100 or 100+ BRIS speed ratings in their careers: Big Brown, Cool Coal Man, Pyro, and Tale of Ekati.

I'm going to box those four and do a Win bet on Gayego.

The hour by hour forecast for Louisville tomorrow shows a serious stretch of rain in the mid day with a chance of sun breaks by the time they run the Derby.

RenoZag
05-02-2008, 08:14 PM
The Oaks/Derby double payoffs and early odds for the Kentucky Derby contenders are listed below.

134TH KENTUCKY DERBY

PP HORSE DERBY/OAKS WILL PAY ODDS*
1 COOL COAL MAN $436 36-1
2 TALE OF EKATI $312.20 45-1
3 ANAK NAKAL $778 57-1
4 COURT VISION $132.20 14-1
5 EIGHT BELLES $212 8-1
6 Z FORTUNE $143.60 17-1
7 BIG TRUCK $848.40 20-1
8 VISIONAIRE $235.60 22-1
9 PYRO $55.80 5-1
10 COLONEL JOHN $54.80 4-1
11 Z HUMOR $644.80 67-1
12 SMOOTH AIR $369.60 40-1
13 BOB BLACK JACK $514.80 26-1
14 MONBA $281.60 30-1
15 ADRIANO $297 24-1
16 DENIS OF CORK $224.20 27-1
17 COWBOY CAL $593.80 42-1
18 RECAPTURETHEGLORY $578.60 47-1
19 GAYEGO $227 21-1
20 BIG BROWN $37.80 7-2

*Odds as of 7 p.m. (EDT) Friday

RenoZag
05-03-2008, 03:43 PM
Sooner or later you have to make a choice and stick with it. . .the Derby's so damn hard to handicap anymore. . .it has almost become: What chalk do I key on top of my exactas and which long shots go underneath ??

There are only four horses with at least two 100 or 100+ BRIS speed ratings in their careers: Big Brown, Cool Coal Man, Pyro, and Tale of Ekati.

I'm going to box those four and do a Win bet on Gayego.

The hour by hour forecast for Louisville tomorrow shows a serious stretch of rain in the mid day with a chance of sun breaks by the time they run the Derby.

Well, Big Brown was the "super horse" his trainer said he was. Tale of Ekati was fourth. Terrible tragedy re: the fillie, Eight Belles; she runs her heart out to finish 2nd then breaks down galloping out after crossing the wire. Take her out of the picture and there didn't appear to be another horse within 8 or 9 lengths of Big Brown at the finish line.

Had a small WPS on Denis of Cork but it wasn't enough to undo the damage from my other bets. So it goes.

RenoZag
05-03-2008, 04:42 PM
http://www.brisnet.com/pictures/bigbrown5-3cp.jpg

LynetteG
05-03-2008, 05:03 PM
fantastic race by a freak of nature, WOW!

so sad about Eight Belles. RIP big girl

HillBillyZag
05-05-2008, 02:13 PM
I was listening to Mike & Mike on ESPN radio this morning while in the car and they had the PETA spokesman on the air. They want the Jockey suspended and the $400,000.00 place money denied. She also said that the horse racing business was only concerned with the money aspect of the sport,(she called it only a business) and had to no concern or love for the animals. Within her tirade there were only two statements I agreed with, she supported a movement to abolish whipping and to install more artificial track surfaces. While only nine tracks have installed those, they say on track injuries have been reduced over 25%. While only a casual horse racing fan, I have a friend and former co-worker who is a trainer in WVA and several aquaintances who are owners, track and stable employees, etc. and I can tell you that these folks for the most part, love and respect their equine charges & partners and truly grieve when any illness, injury, or death befalls them. Notice that PETA only gets shrill when a newsworthy event like the Derby or the Micheal Vick dog fighting incident captures the headlines and gives them a broader brush to paint animal lovers, owners and trainers as villains. Anyhow RIP Eight Belles,as much as we mourn your untimely passing, we love you and salute your gallant heart!

RenoZag
05-05-2008, 03:28 PM
Good thoughts, HBZ. The PETA whackos make me a bit nuts also; if she had suffered the kind of injury in the stretch that she did after crossing the wire, there's no way Saez would have continued to ride her.

RenoZag
05-05-2008, 06:45 PM
LEXINGTON, Ky. - Breakdowns of the kind Eight Belles sustained moments after the Kentucky Derby are unusual in horses that are pulling up from a race, equine orthopedic surgeons said Monday. But the strides after the finish line can still present a danger for tired horses.

There are two primary contributing factors for post-race breakdowns, said Dr. Larry Bramlage, an orthopedic surgeon with Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital who was present at the Derby as a veterinary spokesman from the American Association of Equine Practitioners.

"One, they're tired, so their muscles absorb less of the stress, so they start taking a heavier load on the skeleton," said Bramlage. "The second thing is, they take their mind off what they're doing. That's why you want a jockey to let the horse gallop out over a longer distance and don't let them start propping to slow themselves down. The propping situation certainly wouldn't apply here, because the horse had galloped out already a quarter of a mile easing down in speed. As to whether she was tired or not, she'd just run a mile and a quarter - they're all tired.

"You'll see things like condylar fractures or sesamoid fractures in one leg, and as they start slowing down and their mind gets off of the competition, they'll become aware of the discomfort," Bramlage added when asked what injuries are most likely after the finish line. "An injury as they're pulling up is not terribly unheard of. The vast majority of injuries, however, don't manifest until they're cooling out, unless the horse becomes structurally unstable in some fashion. Then they start slowing down in the race. None of those scenarios fit here."

Bramlage said close examination of video shows Eight Belles's breakdown began when her right front leg failed.

"Two steps later, her left front gives way as well, and that's when she went down," he said. "She gets very asymmetric [uneven in stride] for about two steps, and then her left front fails."

That progression has led some to believe the filly's shifting weight from the right front to the left front likely contributed to the left leg's failure. She had condylar fractures, vertical breaks from the fetlock area up into the cannon bone, in both forelegs.

Dwayne H. Rodgerson, a surgeon at Hagyard Equine Medical Institute, called Eight Belles's injury - near-simultaneous catastrophic condylar fractures in both forelegs - "very rare."

Rodgerson said he knows of no statistics showing how many injuries occur after the finish line. But studies have shown the catastrophic injury rate in Thoroughbred races typically hovers between 1.6 and 2.03 per 1,000 races.

Smaller condylar fractures occur fairly commonly in racehorses and frequently can be repaired. Rodgerson said that horses with more common incomplete condylar fractures often are weight bearing and can appear sound. But the rarer severe cases, particularly ones in which bone breaks completely and through the skin and allows contamination into the leg, as happened on Eight Belles's left foreleg, can call for euthanasia.

"Once the bone pops out, it goes up the leg, and once that goes the collateral ligament support is gone," Rodgerson said. "The collateral ligament is what keeps the leg from shifting to the inside or outside, and when they lose that collateral ligament, the joint's not stable, and it can, in a sense, dislocate."

In Eight Belles's instance, the involvement of both front legs left no real option for treatment, Bramlage and Rodgerson agreed, because there was essentially no way for the horse to stand, a key to survival. And the open wound on the left front would have made the risk of infection high, even if surgeons had attempted repair.

Eight Belles's injury, and particularly the failure of both front fetlocks, provides a highly unusual and baffling case study for the country's top equine orthopedic surgeons.

"I've never seen it in a horse that galloped out that far after the race," Bramlage said. "I actually have only ever seen it firsthand on videotape and never in a race where I actually have been. Even in that situation and in situations where a horse injures one leg, they're not performing like she was performing. She was closing the gap at the end of the race, so it's not as if she were protecting something or aware, even, that anything was going on. Her level of performance couldn't have been higher. So there was no outward sign that any of this was impending."

Jockey did everything right, Jones says

Larry Jones, the trainer of Eight Belles, spoke out Monday in defense of jockey Gabriel Saez, who rode Eight Belles in the Kentucky Derby.

"This filly in every race has tried to drift toward the rail," Jones told The Associated Press in Lexington, Ky. "It's her comfort zone, and Gabriel knows this. This kid made every move the right move, and I hate it that they're wanting to jump down his throat. He did not try to abuse that horse to make her run faster. He knew he was second best, that she wasn't going to catch Big Brown."

People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, an animal rights group, has called for Saez to be suspended, suggesting that he should have known that the filly was injured.

Saez, 20, began to ride competitively in 2006 and was the youngest jockey in the Derby this year. He issued the following statement Monday from his home base at Delaware Park:

"I remain heartbroken over Eight Belles, and I want to let her many fans know that she never gave me the slightest indication before or during the race that there was anything bothering her. All I could sense under me was how eager she was to race. I was so proud of her performance, and of the opportunity to ride her in my first Kentucky Derby, all of which adds to my sadness. Riding right now at Delaware Park and being around the horses and other jockeys is good therapy for me, but I hope the media understands that I prefer not to conduct interviews at this time. Please respect my decision while I mourn my personal loss."


From the Racing Form

RenoZag
05-05-2008, 06:57 PM
From Bill Finley @ ESPN:


This one is different. This time, the people are not going to buy that tired, old "It's part of the game" line. The public is outraged by the death of Eight Belles in the Kentucky Derby and asking some very serious, very appropriate questions about whether horse racing is tantamount to animal cruelty.

This is usually where the sport buries its collective head in the sand, tells people how much everyone involved with the game loves his or her horses, and hopes the controversy dies down. This time, that's not going to work. The horse racing industry has to be proactive and take some severe measures to make this sport safer and more humane for the animals that compete and the humans who ride them.

It has to send a message: We admit we have a problem, and we are going to fix it. To do nothing of substance is unacceptable and will convince a large segment of the population that horse racing, as a New York Times columnist suggested, isn't that different from animal fighting.



LINK (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/columns/story?columnist=finley_bill&id=3382816)

Among Finley's suggestions:


4. Promote longer races.

The breeding industry continues to accentuate speed over soundness and stamina, no doubt another contributing factor to the alarming rate of catastrophic injuries. Who can blame them? There are great rewards out there for fast, precocious horses who need not go any farther than a mile. Once, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, one of the most important races on the calendar, was run at two miles. No more. Even the mile-and-a-quarter distance is starting to disappear.

The only way breeders are going to start producing sounder, sturdier horses is to create a system in which those horses have much to gain on the racetrack. We can start by making the Breeders' Cup Classic a mile and a half and the Breeders' Cup Distaff a mile and a quarter and increasing the distance of many other major races.

RenoZag
05-17-2008, 06:56 AM
There's a great follow-up story by noted turf writer William Nack posted at ESPN.com.


The great William Nack (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/columns/story?columnist=nack_bill&id=3399004&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab3pos2)


And herein, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, lies the rub. The thoroughbred breed is now so suffused with the precocious blood of Native Dancer, so filled with his great-grandsons and great-granddaughters, so shot through with distant offspring who carry the markers of his tribe -- extraordinary speed with limited durability and soundness -- that today it threatens the viability of the entire breed.


So, not only did the industry begin to breed horses less sound, in general, but also horses that were raised more softly, with kid gloves. John Nerud, the 95-year-old former manager of Tartan Farm, a private stud in Florida, points with pride at all the wonderful racehorses he bred and raised and retired sound, horses like the great Dr. ###er and the sprinter Ta Wee.



"These horses all retired sound because we raised 'em out in the open," Nerud said. "We did not hothouse 'em or prep 'em for sales. It makes quite a difference when your foal or yearling can run in a pasture. The pounding of those legs strengthens them when they are young and you'll grow a better bone on a horse."



What has happened, with the passage of years, is that the thoroughbred is no longer the resilient, hard-boned, robust racehorse that he was in the days when horses were starting 40 or 50 times in a career -- back, for instance, when the great 1940s handicap star, Stymie, started 131 times in six years of racing, a physical impossibility for any horse today.