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What Applies Here to the 08-09 Zags?
By Doug Gottleib--
If this past year told us anything, it is that while stars come and go in college hoops, national championships are built with solid, consistent play at all positions and the occasional young star that puts a team over the top.
Both Memphis and Kansas are worthy references in terms of what it takes to win a championship. After all, Memphis was one 3-point shot away from winning the whole ball of wax. But the Tigers failed, and so we will look at both teams as a litmus test for our 2009 champion.
With so many players yet to determine their future, it is really difficult to ascertain exactly who will have the look of a national title contender. But we can, with Memphis and Kansas from this season and the past couple of years as a guide, look at what makes a champion in the 21st century.
[+] EnlargeAP Photo/Steve Nesius
Jim Calhoun's Huskies should have an experienced, quick backcourt to balance a talented frontcourt next season.
First, you must have depth of talent that has been through the battles. With Florida's 2006 championship as the exception, other recent title teams have all been fairly veteran-based teams with players who are stars at the college level and are looked at as solid future professionals with a couple of rare exceptions.
UConn may have the closest similarity to this year's Kansas team in terms of depth and quality of talent. Like KU, UConn will have a star coming off a spring ACL tear (Brandon Rush for Kansas) in A.J. Price. Like Kansas, UConn will have three ultra-quick guards who all have a different skill set. Whereas KU threw out Sherron Collins, Russell Robinson and Mario Chalmers, UConn brings Jerome Dyson, Doug Wiggins and newcomer Kemba Walker, along with the recovering Price, to load up its backcourt. Dyson is the shooter, Wiggins the midrange scorer and Walker is the ultra-quick point guard who can make it all work. Upon Price's return, UConn will have the best backcourt depth in the land and experience to boot. There is a chance Wiggins decides to transfer, and if so the Russell Robinson of this group would be Craig Austrie, who can defend and needs little or no "love" at the offensive end. With an NBA-level talent in Stanley Robinson at the small forward and the always solid but a bit undersized Jeff Adrien at the block and Gavin Edwards as his backup, UConn will have everything they need if Hasheem Thabeet stays in school for one more year.
Having pros are a nice bonus for teams hoping to push for a title. In fact, almost every champion over the past 20 years has actually featured three eventual NBA first-round drafts picks. Florida's two championship teams had Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah and Al Horford. North Carolina '05 had Sean May, Rashad McCants, Marvin Williams and Raymond Felton. Connecticut '04 had Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.
So if UCLA's Kevin Love, UNC's Tyler Hansbrough, UConn's Thabeet or Texas' D.J. Augustin were to return, their teams would have three potential first-round draft picks.
This year's Memphis-Kansas championship matchup also proved that the uberelite in the college game possess size, athleticism and shot-making abilities. It is obvious that the combined speed of KU's Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, Collins and Memphis' Derrick Rose, Antonio Anderson and Chris Douglas-Roberts may have been the fastest and quickest Final Four ever.
This will not change. Next year, UNC could have that speed and athleticism with Lawson, and UCLA will have Collison (if he returns) and incoming freshmen Jrue Holiday, Jerime Anderson and Malcolm Lee.
[+] EnlargeKevin C. Cox/Getty Images
If Tyler Smith returns to Tennessee, the Vols will again have one of the most athletic teams in the country. But they'll still be missing a point guard and a go-to post player.
In terms of overall team speed, Tennessee may be hard to beat in that regard as well. The Vols will bring in Scotty Hopson and will return Ramar Smith and possibly Tyler Smith. But they may not get over the hump as they are still searching for a back-to-the-basket threat and true point guard.
And while there is always a need for guard play, don't underestimate the need for low-post defense, rebounding and scoring. Memphis' Joey Dorsey fits all those categories, as did Kansas' Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun
Next season, North Carolina could be in great shape with Deon Thompson fitting this role, especially if Hansbrough returns. UConn could get the same out of Jeff Adrien. And if Love comes back, UCLA would have Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Alfred Aboya to give the Bruins' experience in the post.
Past tourney success seems to bode well for teams with a sizeable number of returning players. Although Florida won the title without that experience in 2006, Duke ('01), Maryland ('02), UNC ('05) and Florida ('07) had all been through the wars of the Dance the season before winning it all. Memphis and Kansas were also very close to the Final Four last year.
Of this year's Elite Eight teams, Xavier will lose three starters for the third straight year. And Texas, Louisville and Davidson lose a great deal as well.
It stands to reason that UNC, in the Final Four this year, would be the title favorite next year. Hansbrough has a chance to hold every UNC record if he stays in school, and his stock in the league will be the same regardless. Lawson's stock is low right now, and Wayne Ellington is streaky as a shooter. If two of those three Heels come back, plus the addition of recruits Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller and Larry Drew for depth, they will look like preseason favorites to win the title. Their defensive issues could be lessened by a deeper bench. Bobby Frasor, Drew, Danny Green and Lawson should be able to make enough perimeter shots if and when Ellington goes cold. And, don't forget that the blowout loss to Kansas in the Final Four should be a motivating factor.
I have to give UNC -- based on athleticism, shot-making, likely returning players, talent and coaching -- a slight edge over UCLA to be the most likely team to "pull a Kansas" in '09.
If this past year told us anything, it is that while stars come and go in college hoops, national championships are built with solid, consistent play at all positions and the occasional young star that puts a team over the top.
Both Memphis and Kansas are worthy references in terms of what it takes to win a championship. After all, Memphis was one 3-point shot away from winning the whole ball of wax. But the Tigers failed, and so we will look at both teams as a litmus test for our 2009 champion.
With so many players yet to determine their future, it is really difficult to ascertain exactly who will have the look of a national title contender. But we can, with Memphis and Kansas from this season and the past couple of years as a guide, look at what makes a champion in the 21st century.
[+] EnlargeAP Photo/Steve Nesius
Jim Calhoun's Huskies should have an experienced, quick backcourt to balance a talented frontcourt next season.
First, you must have depth of talent that has been through the battles. With Florida's 2006 championship as the exception, other recent title teams have all been fairly veteran-based teams with players who are stars at the college level and are looked at as solid future professionals with a couple of rare exceptions.
UConn may have the closest similarity to this year's Kansas team in terms of depth and quality of talent. Like KU, UConn will have a star coming off a spring ACL tear (Brandon Rush for Kansas) in A.J. Price. Like Kansas, UConn will have three ultra-quick guards who all have a different skill set. Whereas KU threw out Sherron Collins, Russell Robinson and Mario Chalmers, UConn brings Jerome Dyson, Doug Wiggins and newcomer Kemba Walker, along with the recovering Price, to load up its backcourt. Dyson is the shooter, Wiggins the midrange scorer and Walker is the ultra-quick point guard who can make it all work. Upon Price's return, UConn will have the best backcourt depth in the land and experience to boot. There is a chance Wiggins decides to transfer, and if so the Russell Robinson of this group would be Craig Austrie, who can defend and needs little or no "love" at the offensive end. With an NBA-level talent in Stanley Robinson at the small forward and the always solid but a bit undersized Jeff Adrien at the block and Gavin Edwards as his backup, UConn will have everything they need if Hasheem Thabeet stays in school for one more year.
Having pros are a nice bonus for teams hoping to push for a title. In fact, almost every champion over the past 20 years has actually featured three eventual NBA first-round drafts picks. Florida's two championship teams had Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah and Al Horford. North Carolina '05 had Sean May, Rashad McCants, Marvin Williams and Raymond Felton. Connecticut '04 had Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.
So if UCLA's Kevin Love, UNC's Tyler Hansbrough, UConn's Thabeet or Texas' D.J. Augustin were to return, their teams would have three potential first-round draft picks.
This year's Memphis-Kansas championship matchup also proved that the uberelite in the college game possess size, athleticism and shot-making abilities. It is obvious that the combined speed of KU's Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, Collins and Memphis' Derrick Rose, Antonio Anderson and Chris Douglas-Roberts may have been the fastest and quickest Final Four ever.
This will not change. Next year, UNC could have that speed and athleticism with Lawson, and UCLA will have Collison (if he returns) and incoming freshmen Jrue Holiday, Jerime Anderson and Malcolm Lee.
[+] EnlargeKevin C. Cox/Getty Images
If Tyler Smith returns to Tennessee, the Vols will again have one of the most athletic teams in the country. But they'll still be missing a point guard and a go-to post player.
In terms of overall team speed, Tennessee may be hard to beat in that regard as well. The Vols will bring in Scotty Hopson and will return Ramar Smith and possibly Tyler Smith. But they may not get over the hump as they are still searching for a back-to-the-basket threat and true point guard.
And while there is always a need for guard play, don't underestimate the need for low-post defense, rebounding and scoring. Memphis' Joey Dorsey fits all those categories, as did Kansas' Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun
Next season, North Carolina could be in great shape with Deon Thompson fitting this role, especially if Hansbrough returns. UConn could get the same out of Jeff Adrien. And if Love comes back, UCLA would have Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Alfred Aboya to give the Bruins' experience in the post.
Past tourney success seems to bode well for teams with a sizeable number of returning players. Although Florida won the title without that experience in 2006, Duke ('01), Maryland ('02), UNC ('05) and Florida ('07) had all been through the wars of the Dance the season before winning it all. Memphis and Kansas were also very close to the Final Four last year.
Of this year's Elite Eight teams, Xavier will lose three starters for the third straight year. And Texas, Louisville and Davidson lose a great deal as well.
It stands to reason that UNC, in the Final Four this year, would be the title favorite next year. Hansbrough has a chance to hold every UNC record if he stays in school, and his stock in the league will be the same regardless. Lawson's stock is low right now, and Wayne Ellington is streaky as a shooter. If two of those three Heels come back, plus the addition of recruits Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller and Larry Drew for depth, they will look like preseason favorites to win the title. Their defensive issues could be lessened by a deeper bench. Bobby Frasor, Drew, Danny Green and Lawson should be able to make enough perimeter shots if and when Ellington goes cold. And, don't forget that the blowout loss to Kansas in the Final Four should be a motivating factor.
I have to give UNC -- based on athleticism, shot-making, likely returning players, talent and coaching -- a slight edge over UCLA to be the most likely team to "pull a Kansas" in '09.
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