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View Full Version : How do you INTERPRET our margin of loss statistic this year?



ZagsGoZags
03-29-2008, 11:13 PM
Every time I look at this statistic my heart swells up with hope. Problem is, I think I am being realistic.

Here is our margin of loss:

WSU ----- 4 pts
Oklahoma - 4 pts
Tennessee -10 pts
Memphis -- 8 pts
St Mary's - 4 pts overtime
San Diego -7 pts
Davidson - 6 pts

In addition to this, in many of these losses our beloved team was within a couple of points right up to the two minute mark before end of game: Most of these losses were to some excellent teams. Is it fair to read into this that we will have a wonderful and BIG winning season next year?

The one really terrible loss, IMO, was to Texas Tech by 10 pts

My question is this: HOW DO YOU INTERPRET THIS STATISTIC ??

NorthWestZag
03-29-2008, 11:18 PM
I do not think there was one game this year where we simply did not show up to play. Sure we had off nights like every team does. Maybe if there was one it was Texas Tech but that was not like the games against Virginia or Georgia last year.

VinnyZag
03-29-2008, 11:20 PM
You should be encouraged. I would add one caveat, though: The Tennessee and Memphis games weren't REALLY that close. The Vols and Tigers were in command most of the game, in my opinion.

MDABE80
03-29-2008, 11:52 PM
Nope you're correct Vinny. Tenn and Memphis were just too difficult. Score didn't really indicate how close the game wasn't! The others..well..Zags could have won just as easily as lost. On the other hand, we won a few, I thought we really should have lost. I STILL can't believe the 2nd SCU game. I wanted to send Brody Angley a check!
Well, the season's in the can for the Zags. Next year.....we've just got to step up or be forgotten.....not in the conversation.....Something tells me we;ll return to Zag form. Such talent coming back. Can't be bad.

BobZag
03-30-2008, 09:33 AM
Every time I look at this statistic my heart swells up with hope. Problem is, I think I am being realistic.

Here is our margin of loss:

WSU ----- 4 pts
Oklahoma - 4 pts
Tennessee -10 pts
Memphis -- 8 pts
St Mary's - 4 pts overtime
San Diego -7 pts
Davidson - 6 pts

In addition to this, in many of these losses our beloved team was within a couple of points right up to the two minute mark before end of game: Most of these losses were to some excellent teams. Is it fair to read into this that we will have a wonderful and BIG winning season next year?

The one really terrible loss, IMO, was to Texas Tech by 10 pts

My question is this: HOW DO YOU INTERPRET THIS STATISTIC ??

Close but no cigar?

CDC84
03-30-2008, 02:30 PM
Lack of direction on offense in the closing minutes due to not having a player to run the offense through. A number of those close losses were the result of Gonzaga going thru big scoring draughts in the final minutes of games.

Zags also need to get tougher as a team.

krozman
03-30-2008, 03:32 PM
People who attempt to sum up an entire team's season based on a statistic such as winning margin are not seeing the forest from the trees. It's a lazy way of attempting to sound intelligent and doesn't even require watching the games.

Watch the games, and you'll find that our team is excellent, and despite the fact that we lost some, they were lost for very different reasons. No statistic as vague as winning or losing margin is going to tell you the big picture as a whole, unless you dig deeper into the numbers and find that with every game we won, we shot x% better, rebounded +/- X% more, etc.

I suppose ZagsGoZags, you should get the tapes for each game this offseason, and take a stab at the interpretation yourself. I wont fault you for voicing an opinion as long as you dont base it on 15 minutes of a review of the final scores this season.

pbriz
03-30-2008, 03:50 PM
People who attempt to sum up an entire team's season based on a statistic such as winning margin are not seeing the forest from the trees. It's a lazy way of attempting to sound intelligent and doesn't even require watching the games.

Watch the games, and you'll find that our team is excellent, and despite the fact that we lost some, they were lost for very different reasons. No statistic as vague as winning or losing margin is going to tell you the big picture as a whole, unless you dig deeper into the numbers and find that with every game we won, we shot x% better, rebounded +/- X% more, etc.

I suppose ZagsGoZags, you should get the tapes for each game this offseason, and take a stab at the interpretation yourself. I wont fault you for voicing an opinion as long as you dont base it on 15 minutes of a review of the final scores this season.


Who peed in your Cheerios this morning?

ZagsGoZags
03-30-2008, 10:53 PM
My interpretation, after a day to think more about it, and reading the posts on this thread, is tentatively, we could have an extremely good year next year, perhaps as good as many people hoped for this year. For all the criticisms of our offense this year, and other things, we hung in there with teams ranked in the top three in the nation. It is true it never felt like we could or would win with Tennessee and Memphis, but in one of those games I remember we were within 3 pts with about 2 min left in regulation. So if we played with the same tangled, and sometimes not clicking offense, and same turnovers, injuries, and same lack of toughness down the stretch, we ought to be better next year simply because of the growth to be expected from Josh, Matt, Austin, Steven, Micah, and hopefully Robert. And looking at our close losses being a little better could give us 3-4 losses instead of 8.
Krozman, didn't mean to rub you the wrong way. Not sure why you assumed I didn't see the games. I did watch every single game (except the very first which wasn't on TV), except for a couple when part of the game I had to use the radio. My question is based mostly on the amount of criticism and lowered expectations expressed on this board after our loss to Davidson. The margin of our losses actually shocked me for being so close, and keeping us a small distance from victory in nearly all the games. So that stat gives me more hope than most others as I lick my wounds between now and November.

2wiceright
03-31-2008, 12:07 AM
Agree with everything ZagsGoZags said... One year is a long time for this team to gel, beef up, and mature enough to really see a difference- perhaps what we had all hoped for from last years team. Also, hopefully Josh's bum foot will be a mute point, and he'll be back cleaning off the glass backboards!

7ICoug
03-31-2008, 08:28 AM
Every time I look at this statistic my heart swells up with hope. Problem is, I think I am being realistic.

Here is our margin of loss:

WSU ----- 4 pts
Oklahoma - 4 pts
Tennessee -10 pts
Memphis -- 8 pts
St Mary's - 4 pts overtime
San Diego -7 pts
Davidson - 6 pts

My question is this: HOW DO YOU INTERPRET THIS STATISTIC ??

This one is actually quite easy. I was going to mention it earlier, but the pain level seemed too high. This is known as having a Freshman dominated team, these guys will be Sophmores next year, and the Juniors will be Seniors.

Teams with experience win more close games, unless you have 9 HS MCd All Americans on your squad.

Sacre, Daye, Grey will all have been on the road, around the conference and to the dance. Things will slow down and be easier.

75Zag
03-31-2008, 10:39 AM
The Bulldogs lost 16 times against-the-spread this year, according to Wynne Sports Book. While the spread is obviously an artificial device created to reflect and redirect gambling action, it also represents, at least in my opinion, a fairly well-informed consensus projection of how a team should do in a particular game. Regardless of whether you approve or disapprove of sports wagering, the fact that GU lost against the point spread in 16 of their games should tell you quite a bit about inconsistency, sloppy play, failure to play up to potential, unnecessarily close games, etc.

UberZagFan
03-31-2008, 11:44 AM
the fact that GU lost against the point spread in 16 of their games should tell you quite a bit about inconsistency, sloppy play, failure to play up to potential, unnecessarily close games, etc.

The spread? How many times did the Patriots fail to cover last year? Uber supposes that figure tells a lot of about the Patriots' "inconsistency, sloppy play, failure to play up to potential, unnecessarily close games, etc."

sonuvazag
03-31-2008, 01:49 PM
Team's not covering the spread enough a problem? Jeez. I hope there aren't any strangely cash-rich students hanging out with the team a lot.

And correct my math if I'm off here, but going off 75's statement, they also covered the spread in 17 games which couldn't be more appropriate when you figure the point of the spread is to create an even betting line.