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View Full Version : Ken Pomeroy thinks it'll be close...very close



MDABE80
03-18-2008, 11:32 PM
Fri Mar 21 Gonzaga vs. (33) Davidson (sr) Neutral (Raleigh, NC) W, 71-70[69] (56%)

Just posted on his website. We'll see.

Ziggy
03-18-2008, 11:44 PM
(33) is Davidson's Pomeroy Rank-Gonzaga's is 28

(69) is the predicted number of possessions or tempo

56% is the possibility that Davidson will beat us

KenPom can be a little confusing to the uninitiated. :)

gonzagulous
03-19-2008, 04:59 AM
56% is the possibility we will beat them.... If it was the other way around Davidson would be predicted to win :)

Zag4Hire
03-19-2008, 06:40 AM
Fri Mar 21 Gonzaga vs. (33) Davidson (sr) Neutral (Raleigh, NC) W, 71-70[69] (56%)

Just posted on his website. We'll see.

I'm confused because he wrote the following on the Midwest Bracket preview on "Basketball Prospectus":

"Georgetown has a potentially scary second-round game against Davidson on the horizon. The Wildcats' Final Four chances are Georgia-esque; their ability is probably underrepresented in my system by 10-15 spots. Whenever they lose--and it could be anywhere from the first round to much later--I'd be surprised if the game is decided before the final minute. They play big-conference-style basketball."

I'm taking for that he is towing the expert's line right now. But if you look at his numbers, he appears to like us.

>>>>>>>>>>2ndRd Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
7 Gonzaga >>> 55.84 17.38 4.41 0.72 0.25 0.06
10 Davidson >>> 44.16 11.77 2.52 0.35 0.10 0.02

CDC84
03-19-2008, 08:11 AM
To be honest, it's when we get to statistical analysis like this that Pomeroy tends to bore me a bit. It's too hard to project thru stats who might win what game in the NCAA tournament because it is such a different format than the regular season. There are too many additional variables, and as Mark Few says, luck plays a part in these games more than any games that take place in the regular season. I would also suggest that the "do or die" format tends to make teams play harder than they normally do, and to tense up more than they normally do.

There is a reason why they call it March Madness.

Butler Guy
03-19-2008, 09:58 AM
My favorite thing Pomeroy-related in this Tourney is #48 Vanderbilt as a 4 seed, that's just awesome.

pbriz
03-19-2008, 10:21 AM
My favorite thing Pomeroy-related in this Tourney is #48 Vanderbilt as a 4 seed, that's just awesome.

yeah thats weird.

P.S. I have you guys beating Tennessee in most my brackets.

VinnyZag
03-19-2008, 03:47 PM
as Mark Few says, luck plays a part in these games more than any games that take place in the regular season.

That should be good for us ... Ken Pom has GU as the 206th luckiest team in the NCAA, while Davidson is merely the 263rd luckiest team.