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View Full Version : Gonzaga's 6 Losses - Perspective



BobZag
02-20-2008, 06:15 PM
Yes, I know the team could and perhaps should be 24-3 instead of 21-6 at this time, but let's take a little look at just who this Zags team has lost to.

Four are ranked in both polls--

#1 Memphis (by 8)
#2 Tennessee (by 10)
#17 WSU (by 4)
#23 St. Mary's (by 4 in OT)

Two are unranked--

Oklahoma (by 4)
Texas Tech (by 10)

Don't forget the Zags beat #13 UConn, but back to the losses... I don't have to tell you about Memphis, Tennessee or the other ranked teams, but Oklahoma has reeled off W's against Arkansas, West Virginia, Baylor (twice) and Texas Tech (twice), some of these W's when super-frosh Blake Griffin was injured (sprained knee) or after Longar Longar broke his leg and is out for the season. Texas Tech is the worst loss, yes, but when they play well, well, they beat the likes of #18 Kansas State, #10 Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Missouri. So while TTU is the worst loss, it isn't awful by any stretch.

This is why Gonzaga will be in its tenth consecutive NCAA Tournament when Selection Sunday rolls around in a few weeks.

Zags have better wins than many think, or remember. I'll let CDC or someone else post all about those. A certain team that whipped Kentucky and beat St. Mary's could be included on that list, a team the Zags have beaten twice.

CaliforniaZaggin'
02-20-2008, 06:26 PM
Our win over the Hilltoppers keeps looking better and better. They're 21-5 with the only real bad loss being Northern Arizona.

cggonzaga
02-20-2008, 06:46 PM
I agree completely we'll be in the tournament regardless if we win the conference tournament or not. I won't agree that we have many good wins. UConn, yes but they certainly aren't the same team we played. WKU, yes but who else in the country will think that's a good win? San Diego, no. They beat a bad Kentucky team and I think caught St Mary's sleeping. Their RPI isn't good and they have 7 wins in a bad WCC accounting for half their wins. The losses just don't matter because they're are just that, losses. We get in based mostly on making 9 straight and having an RPI in the 30s.

CDC84
02-20-2008, 07:50 PM
Gonzaga fans need to rooting for WKU tomorrow night when they take on South Alabama. The game is at WKU. If the Hilltoppers win the game, they will likely end up securing the #1 seed in the Sun Belt tourney. Both WKU and South Alabama are top 50 RPI teams. Both teams are hoping to secure NCAA tourney bids:

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/news;_ylt=AnOfGwDKzbcKDkbBA754IzcT1LYF?slug=ap-sunbeltsshot&prov=ap&type=lgns

Gonzaga jumped 8 spots in the RPI by beating San Diego Monday night. Now not all of that was USD, but it goes to show you how the RPI gets massively better once GU takes on the better teams in their league. It will likely jump even higher if the Zags can beat SMC and SCU over the final weekend of regular season play.

The committee doesn't care if UConn was a different team when GU beat them. Gonzaga could argue that they didn't have Gray or Heytvelt for UConn...therefore it balances out. And they don't care what the national perception is of WKU...they care about results and what's on paper. WKU is presently a top 50 RPI win for GU. It's not a marquee win, but certainly a quality win.

gum797
02-20-2008, 08:27 PM
However, GU has a lot of good wins. I think they need to get more credit for where these game were played. Traveling all over the country and winning these games is tough for any program. UConn could be counted as a great win, but I dont see it that way because of when we played them. However, obviously I'll take it. Now saying this, I would feel a lot more confident if we beat one of those 4 top ranked teams. Hopefully this results in GU playing with a chip on their shoulders during the tourney to prove they can beat some quality teams

cbbfanatic
02-20-2008, 08:43 PM
first off, i wanna say that i think gonzaga is a pretty solid lock for an at large - largely because the overall record will look pretty good assuming no more than 1 or 2 more losses, and in no small part due to the overall "softness" of the bubble.

that said, team's dont build quality resumes on good losses, they do it on good wins. and gonzaga is sorely lacking in that dept if they want to be a 7 seed or better.

luckily the committee probably wont account for gonzaga catching uconn at a pretty opportune time, relative to how they will probably finish the season (theyre HOT now and i dont see more than 1 or 2 losses left for em).

MDABE80
02-20-2008, 09:13 PM
The teams we've lost to are 129-29 collectively. Should count for somethin. We've been SO lucky to win some games but the Committee doesn't count those. They look at the losses and the important wins. Well, we've got a few big wins but we never got wiped out (at least in the score).....Memphis and Tenn were about the worst but they're nos. 1 and 2 now.
Honestly I don't know how Few and staff have done it. All those injuries...and loss of half the season of Josh (who hasn't done much) and Steven who has done a decent journeyman's job considering he's a Frosh.
Josh will be getting more competetive and it looks like Steven can hold his own on offense and defense. If we win those last few games we're in. If not, I can't imagine those voters would deny the Zags. I also think if we improve further, we could squeak into the Swt 16. It would take some luck but it's a reasonable thought.......

ZagNative
02-20-2008, 09:37 PM
USA Today's Bubble Watch evaluation of the Zags chances (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/2008-bubble.htm):
http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/53/20080220usatodaybracketli4.jpg

The last time I looked, St. Joe's had been shown as a good win, but they're now 16-8 and lost to LaSalle a couple of days ago. Their RPI had been holding in the 40's but is now 53. Western Kentucky is at 48.

cbbfanatic
02-20-2008, 09:50 PM
zagnative, am i reading that correctly as saying GU has 16 wins over top 100 teams?

i just looked at kenpom and that site shows gu's top 100 w/l record at 5-6 (2-5 vs top 50 --wku is in there as of wed: 3-1 vs 50-100)

16 wins over top 100 would equate to a top 10 rpi... easily

ZagNative
02-20-2008, 10:05 PM
zagnative, am i reading that correctly as saying GU has 16 wins over top 100 teams?

i just looked at kenpom and that site shows gu's top 100 w/l record at 5-6 (2-5 vs top 50 --wku is in there as of wed: 3-1 vs 50-100)

16 wins over top 100 would equate to a top 10 rpi... easily
Yeah, I don't know what the heck they are talking about there with the 16 wins over top 100 teams. Don't get it at all ... I was going to blithely glide over it for the sake of a pretty graphic ... and the right conclusion, i.e., The Zags are IN! ;)

23dpg
02-20-2008, 10:14 PM
I think it is meant to read, "16 wins outside of the top 100"

21 wins total and 5 against the top 100. That would leave 16.

NorthWestZag
02-20-2008, 10:20 PM
zagnative, am i reading that correctly as saying GU has 16 wins over top 100 teams?

i just looked at kenpom and that site shows gu's top 100 w/l record at 5-6 (2-5 vs top 50 --wku is in there as of wed: 3-1 vs 50-100)

16 wins over top 100 would equate to a top 10 rpi... easily

No, they mean teams ranked 100 or higher. Zags are 16-0 against such teams. Looking at some of those other bubble teams they have loss some games that make you scratch your head. Like USC losing a homer to some team ranked 296. Ouch.

BobZag
02-21-2008, 09:35 AM
The losses just don't matter because they're are just that, losses.

Then losing to Portland is the same as losing to Memphis or Tennessee. Who you lose to doesn't matter. Okay, now I understand.

St. Mary's was sleeping when San Diego beat them? Okay, whatever, a nice rationalization. I think Gonzaga was caught sleeping against [insert team that beat us].

And UConn, with Jerome Dyson, just wasn't the same team. Gosh, one loss to Memphis was their only loss till we beat them in Boston.

An excuse for everything, cg.

cggonzaga
02-21-2008, 10:02 AM
Then losing to Portland is the same as losing to Memphis or Tennessee. Who you lose to doesn't matter. Okay, now I understand.

So you're suggesting we get points for losing to good teams? Do you believe Davidson is getting in the tournament without winning their conference championship this year? They've lost to more quality teams than we have but they're on the outside looking in. They also play in a much better conference.

Do you really believe San Diego is a good team? You're right, they beat St Mary's because they're better. Give me a break. They caught St Mary's on an off night. Call it an excuse if you want but I'd be willing to bet St Mary's gives them a pounding coming up soon here.

If you really believe UConn is the same team we played back in December than you obviously haven't seen them play recently. Thebeet is a monster now. I didn't say we still couldn't beat them I just said they're much better now. Did you miss the part where I said this was a good win?

Also, did you miss the part where I said we'll be in the tournament regardless if we win the conference championship or not? We definitely don't have the resume of our past teams that were always on the bubble with often times fewer losses than 6. We get in mostly based on name alone this year.

Oh and thanks Bob for finally not directing me to the coaching staff on this one.

CDC84
02-21-2008, 10:04 AM
The losses just don't matter because they're are just that, losses.

The committee does factor in quality losses. Obviously, they like it better if you win those games, but how you play against the best competition in defeat does matter in the seeding and selection of teams.

cggonzaga
02-21-2008, 10:10 AM
I agree completely CDC. I just don't see how we're any different than Davidson who arguably played an even tougher OCC than us and much tougher conference schedule and probably won't get in the tournament.

CDC84
02-21-2008, 10:14 AM
So you're suggesting we get points for losing to good teams? Do you believe Davidson is getting in the tournament without winning their conference championship this year? They've lost to more quality teams than we have but they're on the outside looking in. They also play in a much better conference.

http://kenpom.com/confrank.php?y=2008

They don't play in a much better conference. The Southern Conference is ranked 7 spots behind the WCC in the RPI, and they don't have a 2nd team in it that is as good as St. Mary's. In fact, the way USD is playing right now, they might not have a 3rd team as good as them.

Davidson also didn't really lose to more quality teams than GU did. Davidson's losses:

Duke
UNC
UCLA
North Carolina State
Western Michigan
Charlotte

GU's losses:

Memphis
Tennessee
Washington State
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
St. Mary's

Every single one of GU's losses was to a team that is currently ranked in the top 55 of the RPI. 5 of the 6 are ranked in the top 30 of the RPI, and Memphis and Tennessee are the top 2 teams in the RPI overall. Davidson lost to two 100+ RPI teams in WMU and Charlotte, and NC State is ranked at 68 in the RPI.

The big problem with Davidson is that they not only lost to those 3 heavy hitter teams, their best non-league win is over Appalachian State, who is ranked at 142 in the RPI. They also were beaten by two 100+ RPI teams out of league. Davidson also lacks a single top 50 RPI win. They scheduled terribly, whether it was their fault or people being unwilling to play them. They had no St. Joe's/Western Kentucky type teams on their non-league sked.....teams that they could beat but that would show up as quality wins on their resume. Also, their bracket buster opponent, Winthrop, is a 100+ RPI team....a win over the Eagles is not going to help them much.

Goshzagit
02-21-2008, 10:21 AM
NT

cggonzaga
02-21-2008, 10:23 AM
They don't play in a much better conference. The Southern Conference is ranked 7 spots behind the WCC in the RPI, and they don't have a 2nd team in it that is as good as St. Mary's.


I apologize, I thought they were in the A-10. Think I got them mixed up with Dayton. It doesn't negate the fact that they played an OCC strength of schedule of 7 while ours is 9. They played a tiny bit better level of competetion than we did and fared about the same. Why are they on the bubble and we're in? It's a name thing imo.

lothar98zag
02-21-2008, 10:35 AM
I...We get in based mostly on making 9 straight and having an RPI in the 30s.

GU will absolutely NOT get in due to things that happened prior to this season.

lothar98zag
02-21-2008, 10:39 AM
I apologize, I thought they were in the A-10. Think I got them mixed up with Dayton. It doesn't negate the fact that they played an OCC strength of schedule of 7 while ours is 9. They played a tiny bit better level of competetion than we did and fared about the same. Why are they on the bubble and we're in? It's a name thing imo.

3 letter: RPI
GU - 32
Davidson - 61



It's extremely rare that a team w/ a RPI of over 60 makes the tourney as an at-large. Normally, to feel safe, an at large team needs a Top 50 RPI - and even then it isn't automatic.

cggonzaga
02-21-2008, 11:05 AM
I surrender :o . I agree with what all you guys are writing. While I believe we're getting in no matter what I just don't think we should bank on "quality losses" doing the job come decision time.

ZagMania
02-21-2008, 11:10 AM
We aren't getting in because of quality losses. We are getting in because of the quality wins along with no bad losses.

jim77
02-21-2008, 12:02 PM
What if we lose to ST.Marys and DON'T win the WCC tourney???? That means we are the 3rd team coming out of the WCC. Is the WCC really gonna get 3 teams???? We'll be in some pretty iffy territory....just win and it doesn't matter.

Reborn
02-21-2008, 02:23 PM
Besides what has already been written, I'd include one thing. The committee does reward teams that play a very challenging OOC schedule. In fact, I think it's one of the strongest things GU has going for it. We have played 3 of the top 4 teams in the country and I'd say that's pretty good. Yes we lost. And Yes, they DO reward teams that lose by a small margin to a top 10 team on their court (Memphis).